Matthew L. Knope

Global warming is often predicted to drive universal declines in animal body size, but empirical evidence remains equivocal. This is particularly true in marine systems, where body size distributions are influenced not only by temperature but also by oxygen and productivity, all of which are expected to be greatly altered in future oceans. Differences in regional climate trajectories and the physiology of marine taxa also suggest that body size responses will not be spatially or ecologically uniform. We address these complexities by projecting future changes in mean body size across species within ocean basins using a database of 23,329 marine mollusc species. We quantify how body size distributions change across energetic gradients and forecast assemblage level shifts of the five major classes of molluscs across all 10 oceanic basins. Under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we project a significant decline in body size in 68% of class–basin combinations (34 of 50), with some clades expected to shrink by ~16% in mean length by 2100. However, these responses are not universal but are governed by clade-level differences in dominant ecological and physiological strategies and the geography of climate change. Because biomass scales allometrically with length, these trends can correspond to substantial changes in the mass of the average species, from a 46% decline to a 15% increase depending on clade and region. Such widespread functional disruptions may threaten critical ecosystem services (carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and human food provisioning), with implications for global marine ecosystem functioning and services.

The megadiverse plant family Asteraceae forms an iconic component of island floras including many spectacular radiations, but a global picture of its insular diversity is lacking. Here, we uncover the global biogeographical and evolutionary patterns of Asteraceae on islands to reveal the magnitude and potential causes of their evolutionary success. We compile a global checklist of Asteraceae species native and endemic to islands and combine it with macroecological analyses and a phylogenetic review of island radiations. Asteraceae have a global distribution on islands, comprising approximately 6,000 native island species, with 58% endemics. While diversity of the family on islands is lower than expected given its overall diversity, Asteraceae are the most diverse family on oceanic islands, suggesting an exceptional ability to thrive in isolation. In agreement with island biogeography predictions, native Asteraceae diversity increases with area and decreases with isolation, while endemism increases with both. We identify 39 confirmed island radiations and 69 putative radiations, exceeding numbers for other iconic insular groups. Our results reveal Asteraceae offer immense potential for research in ecology and evolution, given their close tracking of island biogeography expectations, large number of both species and radiations, cosmopolitan distribution, and numerous undiscovered radiations.

Many marine fish species are experiencing population declines, but their extinction risk profiles are largely understudied in comparison to their terrestrial vertebrate counterparts. Selective extinction of marine fish species may result in rapid alteration of the structure and function of ocean ecosystems. In this study, we compiled an ecological trait dataset for 8,185 species of marine ray-finned fishes (class Actinopterygii) from FishBase and used phylogenetic generalized linear models to examine which ecological traits are associated with increased extinction risk, based on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List. We also assessed which threat types may be driving these species toward greater extinction risk and whether threatened species face a greater average number of threat types than non-threatened species. We found that larger body size and/or fishes with life histories involving movement between marine, brackish, and freshwater environments are associated with elevated extinction risk. Commercial harvesting threatens the greatest number of species, followed by pollution, development, and then climate change. We also found that threatened species, on average, face a significantly greater number of threat types than non-threatened species. These results can be used by resource managers to help address the heightened extinction risk patterns we found.

The plant genus Bidens (Asteraceae or Compositae; Coreopsidae) is a species-rich and circumglobally distributed taxon. The 19 hexaploid species endemic to the Hawaiian Islands are considered an iconic example of adaptive radiation, of which many are imperiled and of high conservation concern. Until now, no genomic resources were available for this genus, which may serve as a model system for understanding the evolutionary genomics of explosive plant diversification. Here, we present a high-quality reference genome for the Hawaiʻi Island endemic species B. hawaiensis A. Gray reconstructed from long-read, high-fidelity sequences generated on a Pacific Biosciences Sequel II System. The haplotype-aware, draft genome assembly consisted of ~6.67 Giga bases (Gb), close to the holoploid genome size estimate of 7.56 Gb (±0.44 SD) determined by flow cytometry. After removal of alternate haplotigs and contaminant filtering, the consensus haploid reference genome was comprised of 15 904 contigs containing ~3.48 Gb, with a contig N50 value of 422 594. The high interspersed repeat content of the genome, approximately 74%, along with hexaploid status, contributed to assembly fragmentation. Both the haplotype-aware and consensus haploid assemblies recovered >96% of Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs. Yet, the removal of alternate haplotigs did not substantially reduce the proportion of duplicated benchmarking genes (~79% vs. ~68%). This reference genome will support future work on the speciation process during adaptive radiation, including resolving evolutionary relationships, determining the genomic basis of trait evolution, and supporting ongoing conservation efforts.

To determine the distribution and causes of extinction threat across functional groups of terrestrial vertebrates, we assembled an ecological trait data set for 18,016 species of terrestrial vertebrates and utilized phylogenetic comparative methods to test which categories of habitat association, mode of locomotion, and feeding mode best predicted extinction risk. We also examined the individual categories of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List extinction drivers (e.g., agriculture and logging) threatening each species and determined the greatest threats for each of the four terrestrial vertebrate groups. We then quantified the sum of extinction drivers threatening each species to provide a multistressor perspective on threat. Cave dwelling amphibians ( p < 0.01), arboreal quadrupedal mammals (all of which are primates) ( p < 0.01), aerial and scavenging birds ( p < 0.01), and pedal (i.e., walking) squamates ( p < 0.01) were all disproportionately threatened with extinction in comparison with the other assessed ecological traits. Across all threatened vertebrate species in the study, the most common risk factors were agriculture, threatening 4491 species, followed by logging, threatening 3187 species, and then invasive species and disease, threatening 2053 species. Species at higher risk of extinction were simultaneously at risk from a greater number of threat types. If left unabated, the disproportionate loss of species with certain functional traits and increasing anthropogenic pressures are likely to disrupt ecosystem functions globally. A shift in focus from species‐ to trait‐centric conservation practices will allow for protection of at‐risk functional diversity from regional to global scales.

The genus Bidens (Compositae) comprises c. 230 species distributed across five continents, with the 41 Polynesian species displaying the greatest ecomorphological variation in the group. However, the genus has had a long and complicated taxonomic history, and its phylogenetic and biogeographic history are poorly understood. To resolve the evolutionary history of the Polynesian Bidens, 152 individuals representing 91 species were included in this study, including 39 of the 41 described species from Polynesia. Four chloroplast and two nuclear DNA markers were utilized to estimate phylogenetic relationships, divergence times, and biogeographic history. Bidens was found to be polyphyletic within Coreopsis, consistent with previous assessments. The Polynesian radiation was resolved as monophyletic, with the initial dispersal into the Pacific possibly from South America to either the Hawaiian or Marquesas Islands. From the Marquesas, Bidens dispersed to the Society Islands, and ultimately to the Austral Islands. The initial diversification of the crown group in the Pacific is estimated to have occurred ~1.63 mya (0.74–2.72, 95% HPD), making Polynesian Bidens among the youngest and most rapid plant diversification events documented in the Pacific. Our findings suggest that relatively rare long‐distance dispersal and founder‐event speciation, coupled with subsequent loss of dispersal potential and within‐island speciation, can explain the repeated and explosive adaptive radiation of Bidens throughout the archipelagoes of Polynesia.

The half-billion-year history of animal evolution is characterized by decreasing rates of background extinction. Earth's increasing habitability for animals could result from several processes: (i) a decrease in the intensity of interactions among species that lead to extinctions; (ii) a decrease in the prevalence or intensity of geological triggers such as flood basalt eruptions and bolide impacts; (iii) a decrease in the sensitivity of animals to environmental disturbance; or (iv) an increase in the strength of stabilizing feedbacks within the climate system and biogeochemical cycles. There is no evidence that the prevalence or intensity of interactions among species or geological extinction triggers have decreased over time. There is, however, evidence from palaeontology, geochemistry and comparative physiology that animals have become more resilient to an environmental change and that the evolution of complex life has, on the whole, strengthened stabilizing feedbacks in the climate system. The differential success of certain phyla and classes appears to result, at least in part, from the anatomical solutions to the evolution of macroscopic size that were arrived at largely during Ediacaran and Cambrian time. Larger-bodied animals, enabled by increased anatomical complexity, were increasingly able to mix the marine sediment and water columns, thus promoting stability in biogeochemical cycles. In addition, body plans that also facilitated ecological differentiation have tended to be associated with lower rates of extinction. In this sense, Cambrian solutions to Cambrian problems have had a lasting impact on the trajectory of complex life and, in turn, fundamental properties of the Earth system.

The typical marine animal has increased in biovolume by more than two orders of magnitude since the beginning of the Cambrian, but the causes of this trend remain unknown. We test the hypothesis that the efficiency of intra-organism oxygen delivery is a major constraint on body-size evolution in marine animals. To test this hypothesis, we compiled a dataset comprising 13,723 marine animal genera spanning the Phanerozoic. We coded each genus according to its respiratory medium, circulatory anatomy, and feeding mode. In extant genera, we find that respiratory medium and circulatory anatomy explain more of the difference in size than feeding modes. Likewise, we find that most of the Phanerozoic increase in mean biovolume is accounted for by size increase in taxa that accomplish oxygen delivery through closed circulatory systems. During the Cambrian, water-breathing animals with closed circulatory systems were smaller, on average, than contemporaries with open circulatory systems. However, genera with closed circulatory systems superseded in size genera with open circulatory systems by the Middle Ordovician, as part of their Phanerozoic-long trend of increasing size. In a regression analysis, respiratory and circulatory anatomy explain far more size variation in the living fauna than do feeding modes, even after accounting for taxonomic affinity at the class level. These findings suggest that ecological and environmental drivers of the Phanerozoic increase in the mean size of marine animals operated within strong, anatomically determined constraints.

Resisting extinction: Prevailing evolutionary wisdom tells us that ecological differentiation leads to speciation. Whether this pattern can be seen over paleontological time, however, has been difficult to test. Knope et al. looked at a dataset of thousands of modern and extinct marine groups and found the relationship to be more complex than expected. Ecological diversification is associated with lower rates of origination, and the taxonomical richness seemingly associated with these groups is due to resistance to extinction. Furthermore, the researchers found that the strong association between ecological differentiation and taxonomic diversity is a recent development shaped by extinction events over time. Science , this issue p. 1035