Kira Henshaw

In this study, we analyse a large sample of Egyptian social pension data which covers, by law, the policyholder’s spouse, children, parents and siblings. This data set uniquely enables the study and comparison of pairwise dependence between multiple familial relationships beyond the well-known husband and wife case. Applying Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation techniques with the two-step inference functions for margins (IFM) method, we model dependence between lifetimes in spousal, parent–child and child–parent relationships, using copulas to capture the strength of association. Dependence is observed to be strongest in child–parent relationships and, in comparison to the high-income countries of data sets previously studied, of lesser significance in the husband and wife case, often referred to as broken-heart syndrome. Given the traditional use of UK mortality tables in the modelling of mortality in Egypt, the findings of this paper will help to inform appropriate mortality assumptions specific to the unique structure of the Egyptian scheme.

The crisis caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 revealed the global unpreparedness for handling the impact of a pandemic. In this paper, we present a first quarter chronicle of COVID-19 in Hubei China, Italy and Spain, particularly focusing on infection speed, death and fatality rates. By analysing the parameters of the best fitting distributions of the available data for the three rates in each of the three regions, we illustrate the pandemic’s evolution in relation to government measures. We compared the effectiveness of lockdown measures by observing the true situation in each dataset, without proposing a mathematical model. The feasibility of obtaining a firm conclusion in regard to the best solution for containing COVID-19 is limited, with a universal solution failing to exist due to globally varying culture, mentality and behaviours. Our method provides valid insights into the individual and national actions implemented and adhered to in order to slow the effect of the pandemic during the first-wave of COVID-19.

The crisis caused by COVID-19 revealed the global unpreparedness for handling the impact of a pandemic. In this paper, we present a first quarter chronicle of COVID-19 in Hubei China, Italy and Spain, specifically their infection speed, death and fatality rates. By fitting distributions to these rates, we look for the effectiveness of government measures during the pandemic through a number of statistical approaches.

Broken-heart syndrome is the most common form of short-term dependence, inducing a temporary increase in an individual’s force of mortality upon the occurrence of extreme events, such as the loss of a spouse. Socioeconomic influences on bereavement processes allow for suggestion of variability in the significance of short-term dependence between couples in countries of differing levels of economic development. Motivated by analysis of a Ghanaian data set, we propose a stochastic mortality model of the joint mortality of paired lives and the causal relation between their death times, in a less economically developed country than those considered in existing studies. The paired mortality intensities are assumed to be non-mean-reverting Cox–Ingersoll–Ross processes, reflecting the reduced concentration of the initial loss impact apparent in the data set. The effect of the death on the mortality intensity of the surviving spouse is given by a mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process which captures the subsiding nature of the mortality increase characteristic of broken-heart syndrome. Inclusion of a population wide volatility parameter in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck bereavement process gives rise to a significant non-diversifiable risk, heightening the importance of the dependence assumption in this case. Applying the model proposed to an insurance pricing problem, we obtain the appropriate premium under consideration of dependence between coupled lives through application of the indifference pricing principle.