Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah

This study provides a comparative analysis of ecological impact assessment (EcIA) guidance for the design and approval stages of carbon sequestration and emission reduction projects, which are rapidly proliferating in response to the global need for climate change mitigation. Previous reports of negative effects on biodiversity from such projects suggest a need for more robust project design and assessment processes to improve synergies with conservation. Using a content and thematic analysis methodology, we compared four published frameworks that guide the assessment of carbon projects in natural environments. The results showed considerable variation in environmental assessment components including the level of attention to ecosystem services and the identification of areas of high conservation value that may require specific protections. There was a general lack of guidance on the inclusion of indirect and supply chain effects despite their relevance to ecological impacts. Critically, guidance in common use in the climate mitigation sector shows differing applications of the baseline and counterfactual scenarios that are used to quantify impacts. We discuss the need to focus assessment and reporting on comparisons with recent baselines to identify the contributions of individual projects and enable adaptive management and show how aligning with the concepts of Nature-based Solutions and nature-positive could be used to reimagine the role of EcIA to achieve these objectives. If these current weaknesses can be improved, EcIA has the potential to become an important implementation pathway for the conservation–climate change nexus due to its pivotal role in project design and approval processes. Conversely, a failure to reliably address these aspects will undermine the utility of EcIA as a decision support tool for sustainable development. We encourage the further exploration of EcIA practices in this direction and highlight the pressing need for reliable comparisons to support more strategic and sustainable solutions for both the conservation and climate change agendas.

Comprehensive flood risk assessment is often constrained by a lack of appropriate data in high-altitude watersheds, particularly in developing countries like Nepal, where institutional capacities are limited for mapping and monitoring flood-prone communities. This study, one of the first of its kind, produced spatial multi-criteria-based flood susceptibility, vulnerability, and risk index maps for the Kathmandu Valley (KV) watershed in Nepal using an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach and Geographical Information System (GIS). The result shows that most parts of the KV (around 80%) have moderate to low flood susceptibility around the watershed but susceptibility is prominent in southern areas. Highly flood-susceptible regions (about 14%) are found mainly along the riverbanks. Flood vulnerability, primarily influenced by population density and literacy rate, is moderate to low in most areas of the watershed (around 86%), predominantly higher in the central urban areas, and gradually lower towards the edge of the watershed. Flood risks in the major portion of the watershed (around 72%), mainly in the southern and eastern parts, are estimated as moderate to low risk, whereas higher risk zones are found in the central urban areas. The high contrast in flood vulnerability scores across the watershed has mainly contributed to the variation of flood risk zones, as flood susceptibility scores are fairly distributed over the watershed. The study findings will help policymakers develop location-specific sustainable flood risk management strategies for the flood-vulnerable communities in the KV watershed.

With the worldwide growing threat of flooding, assessing flood risks for human societies and the associated social vulnerability has become a necessary but challenging task. Earlier research indicates that islands usually face heightened flood risks due to higher population density, isolation, and oceanic activities, while there is an existing lack of experience in assessing the island-focused flood risk under complex interactions between geography and socioeconomics. In this context, our study employs high-resolution flood hazard data and the principal component analysis (PCA) method to comprehensively assess the social risk of flood exposure and social vulnerability in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada, where limited research has been delivered on flood risk assessments. The findings reveal that exposed populations are closely related to the distribution of flood areas, with increasingly severe impact from current to future climate conditions, especially on the island’s north shore. Exposed buildings exhibit a concentrated distribution at different levels of community centers, with climate change projected to significantly worsen building exposure compared to population, possibly due to the urban agglomeration effect. The most populated cities and towns show the highest social vulnerabilities in PEI, and the results reflect a relatively less complex economic structure of islands. Recommendations for research and management in the coming stage include the necessity of particular climate actions, recognizing community centers as critical sites for flood hazard responses, and incorporating flood hazards into urban planning and management to mitigate the impacts of continuous urbanization on ecosystem services for flood prevention.

Understanding how climate change affects coastal ecosystems is one of the most important elements in determining vulnerability and resilience for long-term ecosystem management in the face of the increasing risk of coastal hazards (e.g., sea level rise, coastal flooding, and storm surge). This research attempts to undertake a study on the ecosystem–climate nexus in the Canadian province of Prince Edward Island (PEI). Cloud-based remote sensing techniques with Google Earth Engine (GGE) are utilized to identify ecosystem changes over time. In addition, the effects of coastal flooding and storm surge ecosystems under different climate scenarios are examined. The results suggest a reduction in the forest (3%), open water or marsh component (9%), salt water (5%), no open water or marsh component (3%), and salt or brackish marsh (17%) ecosystems from 2013 to 2022. Dune and beach exhibit a non-uniform distribution across the period because of variations in natural processes, with an upward trend ranging from 0% to 11%. Approximately 257 km² (9.4%) of PEI’s ecosystems would be affected by extreme coastal flooding (scenario 4), compared to 142 km² (5.2%), 155 km² (5.7%), and 191 km² (7%) in scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Under a 4 m storm surge scenario, around 223 km² (8.2%) of PEI’s ecosystems would be flooded, compared to 61 km² (2.2%), 113 km² (4.1%), and 168 km² (6.1%) under 1 m, 2 m, and 3 m scenarios, respectively. The findings from this research would enable policymakers to take necessary actions to sustain ecosystem services in PEI while confronting the impacts of climate change.

Food‐energy‐water (FEW) systems are increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards and climate change risks, yet humans depend on these systems for their daily needs, wellbeing, and survival. We investigated how adaptations related to FEW vulnerabilities are occurring and what the global community can learn about the interactions across these adaptations. We conducted a global analysis of a data set derived from scientific literature to present the first large scale assessment (n = 1,204) of evidence‐based FEW‐related climate adaptations. We found that the most frequently reported adaptations to FEW vulnerabilities by continent occurred in Africa (n = 495) and Asia (n = 492). Adaptations targeting food security were more robustly documented than those relevant to water and energy security, suggesting a greater global demand to address food security. Determining statistically significant associations, we found a network of connections between variables characterizing FEW‐related adaptations and showed interconnectedness between a variety of natural hazards, exposures, sectors, actors, cross‐cutting topics and geographic locations. Connectivity was found between the vulnerabilities food security, water, community sustainability, and response to sea level rise across cities, settlements, and key infrastructure sectors. Additionally, generalized linear regression models revealed potential synergies and tradeoffs among FEW adaptations, such as a necessity to synergistically adapt systems to protect food and water security and tradeoffs when simultaneously addressing exposures of consumption and production vs. poverty. Results from qualitative thematic coding showcased that adaptations documented as targeting multiple exposures are still limited in considering interconnectivity of systems and applying a nexus approach in their responses. These results suggest that adopting a nexus approach to future FEW‐related adaptations can have profound benefits in the management of scarce resources and with financial constraints.