Knut Kielland

Cyclical population dynamics are a common phenomenon in populations worldwide, yet the spatial organization of these cycles remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the spatial form and timing of a population collapse from 2018 to 2022 in Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) across the northwest boreal forest. We analyzed survival, reproduction, and dispersal data from 143 individual global positioning system (GPS) collared lynx from populations across five study sites spanning interior Alaska to determine whether lynx displayed characteristics of a population wave following a concurrent wave in snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) abundance. Reproductive rates declined across the study sites; however, site-level reproduction declined first in our easternmost study sites, supporting the idea of a population wave. Despite a clear increase in percent of dispersing lynx, there was no evidence of directional bias in dispersal following a hare population wave. Analysis did show increasingly poor survival for lynx dispersing to the east compared to combined resident and westward dispersal. This pattern is consistent with a survival-mediated population wave in lynx as the driver of the theorized population wave. The combination of these factors supports the idea of a hierarchical response to snowshoe hare population declines with a drop in lynx reproduction followed by increased dispersal, and finally reduced survival. All of this evidence is consistent with the expected characteristics of a population undergoing a traveling wave and supports the hypothesis that lynx presence may facilitate and mirror the underlying wave patterns in snowshoe hare.

Recent empirical studies have quantified correlation between survival and recovery by estimating these parameters as correlated random effects with hierarchical Bayesian multivariate models fit to tag‐recovery data. In these applications, increasingly negative correlation between survival and recovery has been interpreted as evidence for increasingly additive harvest mortality. The power of these hierarchal models to detect nonzero correlations has rarely been evaluated, and these few studies have not focused on tag‐recovery data, which is a common data type. We assessed the power of multivariate hierarchical models to detect negative correlation between annual survival and recovery. Using three priors for multivariate normal distributions, we fit hierarchical effects models to a mallard (Anas platyrhychos) tag‐recovery data set and to simulated data with sample sizes corresponding to different levels of monitoring intensity. We also demonstrate more robust summary statistics for tag‐recovery data sets than total individuals tagged. Different priors led to substantially different estimates of correlation from the mallard data. Our power analysis of simulated data indicated most prior distribution and sample size combinations could not estimate strongly negative correlation with useful precision or accuracy. Many correlation estimates spanned the available parameter space (−1,1) and underestimated the magnitude of negative correlation. Only one prior combined with our most intensive monitoring scenario provided reliable results. Underestimating the magnitude of correlation coincided with overestimating the variability of annual survival, but not annual recovery. The inadequacy of prior distributions and sample size combinations previously assumed adequate for obtaining robust inference from tag‐recovery data represents a concern in the application of Bayesian hierarchical models to tag‐recovery data. Our analysis approach provides a means for examining prior influence and sample size on hierarchical models fit to capture–recapture data while emphasizing transferability of results between empirical and simulation studies.

Northern Alaska is experiencing climate warming at a high rate, the consequences of which are profound for ecosystem structure and function, including ecosystem services. One major phenomenon of climate warming in this region pertains to the numerous landscape effects that ensue as permafrost soils undergo increased thaw. In this paper, Jorgenson et al. identify the diversity of effects that the degradation of ice wedges has on these soils and how it affects changes in heat exchange, carbon balance, hydrology, vegetation composition, and wildlife. Over the last few decades, this ecosystem has experienced several-fold increases in the mean size, density, and area (%) of thermokarst features as a consequence of a warmer and wetter climate. Moreover, these changes have accelerated over the last three decades. For example, increased thaw and water impoundments are generating positive feedback to further thawing of the ground and accelerating the emission of greenhouse gases such as methane. Moreover, these changes to the soil are associated with significant changes in plant community composition by way of converting the vegetation from a tussock tundra to one dominated by mosses and aquatic vegetation. Whereas the increase in habitat heterogeneity incurred by thermokarsts may benefit a number of shorebird species, the reduction in sedge species, especially Eriophorum vaginatum, is a concern because of its importance to caribou, which is a major subsistence species in northern Alaska. The authors conclude that these decadal changes will, with time, affect upwards of 30% of this arctic land surface, with broad implications for the ecology of the region, including the human population.

Burrowing species rely on subterranean and subnivean sites to fulfill important life-history and behavioral processes, including predator avoidance, thermoregulation, resting, and reproduction. For these species, burrow architecture can affect the quality and success of such processes, since characteristics like tunnel width and chamber depth influence access by predators, thermal insulation, and energy spent digging. Wolverines (Gulo gulo) living in Arctic tundra environments dig burrows in snow during winter for resting sites and reproductive dens, but there are few published descriptions of such burrows. We visited 114 resting burrows and describe associated architectural characteristics and non-snow structure. Additionally, we describe characteristics of 15 reproductive den sites that we visited during winter and summer. Although many resting burrows were solely excavated in snow, most incorporated terrain structures including cliffs, talus, river shelf ice, thermokarst caves, and stream cutbanks. Burrows typically consisted of a single tunnel leading to a single chamber, though some burrows had multiple entrances, branching tunnels, or both. Tunnels in resting burrows were shorter than those in reproductive dens, and resting chambers were typically located at the deepest part of the burrow. Reproductive dens were associated with snowdrift-forming terrain features such as streambeds, cutbanks on lake edges, thermokarst caves, and boulders. Understanding such characteristics of Arctic wolverine resting and reproductive structures is critical for assessing anthropogenic impacts as snowpack undergoes climate-driven shifts.

Wolverines (Gulo gulo) occupy most of the globe’s Arctic tundra. Given the rapidly warming climate and expanding human activity in this biome, understanding wolverine ecology, and therefore the species’ vulnerability to such changes, is increasingly important for developing research priorities and effective management strategies. Here, we review and synthesize knowledge of wolverines in the Arctic using both Western science sources and available Indigenous Knowledge (IK) to improve our understanding of wolverine ecology in the Arctic and better predict the species’ susceptibility to change. To accomplish this, we update the pan-Arctic distribution map of wolverines to account for recent observations and then discuss resulting inference and uncertainties. We use these patterns to contextualize and discuss potential underlying drivers of distribution and population dynamics, drawing upon knowledge of food habits, habitat associations, and harvest, as well as studies of wolverine ecology elsewhere. We then identify four broad areas to prioritize conservation and research efforts: (1) Monitoring trends in population abundance, demographics, and distribution and the drivers thereof, (2) Evaluating and predicting wolverines’ responses to ongoing climate change, particularly the consequences of reduced snow and sea ice, and shifts in prey availability, (3) Understanding wolverines’ response to human development, including the possible impact of wintertime over-snow travel and seismic testing to reproductive denning, as well as vulnerability to hunting and trapping associated with increased human access, and (4) Ensuring that current and future harvest are sustainable.

Background: Migrations in temperate systems typically have two migratory phases, spring and autumn, and many migratory ungulates track the pulse of spring vegetation growth during a synchronized spring migration. In contrast, autumn migrations are generally less synchronous and the cues driving them remain understudied. Our goal was to identify the cues that migrants use in deciding when to initiate migration and how this is updated whileen route.Methods: We analyzed autumn migrations of Arctic barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus) as a series of persistent and directional movements and assessed the influence of a suite of environmental factors. We fitted a dynamic-parameter movement model at the individual-level and estimated annual population-level parameters for weather covariates on 389 individual-seasons across 9 years.Results: Our results revealed strong, consistent effects of decreasing temperature and increasing snow depth on migratory movements, indicating that caribou continuously update their migratory decision based on dynamic environmental conditions. This suggests that individuals pace migration along gradients of these environmental variables. Whereas temperature and snow appeared to be the most consistent cues for migration, we also found interannual variability in the effect of wind, NDVI, and barometric pressure. The dispersed distribution of individuals in autumn resulted in diverse environmental conditions experienced by individual caribou and thus pronounced variability in migratory patterns.Conclusions: By analyzing autumn migration as a continuous process across the entire migration period, we found that caribou migration was largely related to temperature and snow conditions experienced throughout the journey. This mechanism of pacing autumn migration based on indicators of the approaching winter is analogous to the more widely researched mechanism of spring migration, when many migrants pace migration with a resource wave. Such a similarity in mechanisms highlights the different environmental stimuli to which migrants have adapted their movements throughout their annual cycle. These insights have implications for how long-distance migratory patterns may change as the Arctic climate continues to warm.

Habitat connectivity is a key factor influencing species range dynamics. Rapid warming in the Arctic is leading to widespread heterogeneous shrub expansion, but impacts of these habitat changes on range dynamics for large herbivores are not well understood. We use the climate–shrub–moose system of northern Alaska as a case study to examine how shrub habitat will respond to predicted future warming, and how these changes may impact habitat connectivity and the distribution of moose (Alces alces). We used a 19 year moose location dataset, a 568 km transect of field shrub sampling, and forecasted warming scenarios with regional downscaling to map current and projected shrub habitat for moose on the North Slope of Alaska. The tall‐shrub habitat for moose exhibited a dendritic spatial configuration correlated with river corridor networks and mean July temperature. Warming scenarios predict that moose habitat will more than double by 2099. Forecasted warming is predicted to increase the spatial cohesion of the habitat network that diminishes effects of fragmentation, which improves overall habitat quality and likely expands the range of moose. These findings demonstrate how climate change may increase habitat connectivity and alter the distributions of shrub herbivores in the Arctic, including creation of novel communities and ecosystems.

Because of its high phosphorus (P) demands, it is likely that the abundance, distribution, and N-fixing capacity of Alnus in boreal forests are tightly coupled with P availability and the mobilization and uptake of soil P via ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF). We examined whether Alnus shifts EMF communities in coordination with increasingly more complex organic P forms across a 200-year-old successional sequence along the Tanana River in interior Alaska. Root-tip activities of acid phosphatase, phosphodiesterase, and phytase of A. tenuifolia-associated EMF were positively intercorrelated but did not change in a predictable manner across the shrub, to hardwood to coniferous forest successional sequence. Approximately half of all Alnus roots were colonized by Alnicola and Tomentella taxa, and ordination analysis indicated that the EMF community on Alnus is a relatively distinct, host-specific group. Despite differences in the activities of the two Alnus dominants to mobilize acid phosphatase and phosphodiesterase, the root-tip activities of P-mobilizing enzymes of the Alnus-EMF community were not dramatically different from other co-occurring boreal plant hosts. This suggests that if Alnus has a greater influence on P cycling than other plant functional types, additional factors influencing P mobilization and uptake at the root and/or whole-plant level must be involved.

Damage to plants by herbivores potentially affects the quality and quantity of the plant tissue available to other herbivore taxa that utilize the same host plants at a later time. This study addresses the indirect effects of insect herbivores on mammalian browsers, a particularly poorly-understood class of interactions. Working in the Alaskan boreal forest, we investigated the indirect effects of insect damage to Salix interior leaves during the growing season on the consumption of browse by moose during winter, and on quantity and quality of browse production. Treatment with insecticide reduced leaf mining damage by the willow leaf blotch miner, Micrurapteryx salicifoliella, and increased both the biomass and proportion of the total production of woody tissue browsed by moose. Salix interior plants with experimentally-reduced insect damage produced significantly more stem biomass than controls, but did not differ in stem quality as indicated by nitrogen concentration or protein precipitation capacity, an assay of the protein-binding activity of tannins. Insect herbivory on Salix, including the outbreak herbivore M. salicifoliella, affected the feeding behavior of moose. The results demonstrate that even moderate levels of leaf damage by insects can have surprisingly strong impacts on stem production and influence the foraging behavior of distantly related taxa browsing on woody tissue months after leaves have dropped.