John Barrett

: Accurately quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the farm level is crucial for agricultural decarbonisation, yet doing so remains challenging—particularly for smaller farming operations that lack resources for comprehensive data collection. To address this gap, we present a new framework to predict farm-level direct emission intensities (tCO ₂ e/£) from a minimal set of input variables. Our approach leverages a unique and comprehensive dataset that integrates survey based GHG audits from 482 farms across the United Kingdom (UK) with financial transaction data, obtained through a collaboration with a major high-street bank and a leading UK charity promoting sustainable agriculture. By combining granular farm-level emissions metrics with financial records, we demonstrate that a limited set of input variables focused on the highest impact areas—particularly dairy and beef cattle intensities—yield robust predictions that can explain up to 91% of the variation in farm-level emissions. Although this model does not replace the depth and specificity of established carbon calculators, it provides a pragmatic, scalable alternative for emissions reporting. It offers farms a clear entry-point to carbon accounting and provides financial institutions with a data-efficient method for more accurate assessments of the environmental impact of their agricultural portfolios.

Demand-side energy reductions have so far received less policy support than supply-side net-zero technologies. Here we undertake a demand-focused process for energy scenario analysis, led by policymakers and evaluated through public dialogue. We codesign, describe and model four societal futures that aim to achieve the UK’s 2050 net-zero target. The uniquely close involvement of policymakers leading the project generates markedly different narratives that reflect policymakers’ concerns while still leading to scenarios with reductions in energy demand of 18–45%—exceeding what policies normally suggest. By 2050, technology-focused systems cost 20–100% more than lower-demand ones. While intensive cocreation requires more complex interactions compared with academic-led research, it provides space for important, and otherwise absent, energy demand conversations. This work demonstrates how engaging policymakers to colead energy scenarios can challenge conventional policy assumptions on energy demand while offering an approach to support global climate mitigation efforts.

In recent years, global studies have attempted to understand the contribution that energy demand reduction could make to climate mitigation efforts. Here we develop a bottom-up, whole-system framework that comprehensively estimates the potential for energy demand reduction at a country level. Replicable for other countries, our framework is applied to the case of the United Kingdom where we find that reductions in energy demand of 52% by 2050 compared with 2020 levels are possible without compromising on citizens’ quality of life. This translates to annual energy demands of 40 GJ per person, compared with the current Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average of 116 GJ and the global average of 55 GJ. Our findings show that energy demand reduction can reduce reliance on high-risk carbon dioxide removal technologies, has moderate investment requirements and allows space for ratcheting up climate ambition. We conclude that national climate policy should increasingly develop and integrate energy demand reduction measures.

Energy Demand Reduction (EDR) refers to lowering the amount of energy required to provide energy services across mobility, shelter, nutrition or the production of goods and services, among others, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, global studies have attempted to understand the contribution EDR could make to climate mitigation efforts. Whilst these studies are important to build a global picture, climate targets and policy are necessarily devised at the national level. To address this disconnect, we develop a bottom-up, whole system framework that comprehensively estimates the potential for energy demand reduction at a country level. Replicable for other countries, our framework is applied to the case of the UK where we find that reductions in energy demand of 52% by 2050 compared with 2020 levels are possible without compromising on citizens’ quality of life. This translates to annual energy demands of 40GJ per person, compared to the current OECD average of 55GJ. Our findings show that EDR can reduce reliance on high-risk carbon dioxide removals, moderate investment requirements, and allow space for ratcheting up climate ambition. We conclude that national climate policy should increasingly develop and integrate EDR measures to both articulate national ambition and feeding into international pledges through Nationally Determined Contributions.

Background. Around two-thirds of global GHG emissions are directly and indirectly linked to household consumption, with a global average of about 6 tCO₂eq/cap. The average per capita carbon footprint of North America and Europe amount to 13.4 and 7.5 tCO₂eq/cap, respectively, while that of Africa and the Middle East—to 1.7 tCO₂eq/cap on average. Changes in consumption patterns to low-carbon alternatives therefore present a great and urgently required potential for emission reductions. In this paper, we synthesize emission mitigation potentials across the consumption domains of food, housing, transport and other consumption. Methods. We systematically screened 6990 records in the Web of Science Core Collections and Scopus. Searches were restricted to (1) reviews of lifecycle assessment studies and (2) multiregional input-output studies of household consumption, published after 2011 in English. We selected against pre-determined eligibility criteria and quantitatively synthesized findings from 53 studies in a meta-review. We identified 771 original options, which we summarized and presented in 61 consumption options with a positive mitigation potential. We used a fixed-effects model to explore the role of contextual factors (geographical, technical and socio-demographic factors) for the outcome variable (mitigation potential per capita) within consumption options. Results and discussion. We establish consumption options with a high mitigation potential measured in tons of CO₂eq/capita/yr. For transport, the options with the highest mitigation potential include living car-free, shifting to a battery electric vehicle, and reducing flying by a long return flight with a median reduction potential of more than 1.7 tCO₂eq/cap. In the context of food, the highest carbon savings come from dietary changes, particularly an adoption of vegan diet with an average and median mitigation potential of 0.9 and 0.8 tCO₂eq/cap, respectively. Shifting to renewable electricity and refurbishment and renovation are the options with the highest mitigation potential in the housing domain, with medians at 1.6 and 0.9 tCO₂eq/cap, respectively. We find that the top ten consumption options together yield an average mitigation potential of 9.2 tCO₂eq/cap, indicating substantial contributions towards achieving the 1.5 °C–2 °C target, particularly in high-income context.

Post-growth economists propose structural changes towards labour-intensive services, such as care or education, to make our economy more sustainable by providing meaningful work and reducing the environmentally damaging production of material goods. Our study investigates the assumption underlying such proposals. Using a multi-regional input-output model we compare the embodied energy intensity and embodied labour productivity across economic sectors in the UK and Germany between 1995 and 2011. We identify five labour-intensive service sectors, which combine low embodied energy intensity with low growth in embodied labour productivity. However, despite their lower embodied energy intensities, our results indicate that large structural changes towards these sectors would only lead to small reductions in energy footprints. Our results also suggest that labour-intensive service sectors in the UK have been characterised by higher rates of price inflation than other sectors. This supports suggestions from the literature that labour-intensive services face challenges from increasing relative prices and costs. We do not find similar results for Germany, which is the result of low overall growth in embodied labour productivity and prices. This highlights that structural change is closely associated with economic growth, which raises the question of how structural changes can be achieved in a non-growing economy.