Houssam Ayt Ougougdal

The argan tree is exclusively endemic in the drylands of Southwest Morocco, an agroecosystem of great ecological, cultural, and economic importance. The argan agroecosystem is already damaged. It is particularly vulnerable to climate change as well as the harsh natural conditions aggravated by the current population growth and the exploitation in excess of the production capacities. Unfortunately, during the 20th century, its area has been reduced by half. Current projections indicate an increase in temperature under climate scenarios. Anticipated climate change could accelerate this trend resulting in the argan tree degradation. To assess the climate change impact, the authors used the SDSM model at the argan agroecosystem scale and the thermal stress model to assess its vulnerability and estimate its tolerance response in relation to temperature stress for a projected climate in the near term (2010-2025 years). In this chapter, the authors explored the impact of climate change on the argan tree regeneration.

The argan tree is exclusively endemic in the drylands of Southwest Morocco, an agroecosystem of great ecological, cultural, and economic importance. The argan agroecosystem is already damaged. It is particularly vulnerable to climate change as well as the harsh natural conditions aggravated by the current population growth and the exploitation in excess of the production capacities. Unfortunately, during the 20th century, its area has been reduced by half. Current projections indicate an increase in temperature under climate scenarios. Anticipated climate change could accelerate this trend resulting in the argan tree degradation. To assess the climate change impact, the authors used the SDSM model at the argan agroecosystem scale and the thermal stress model to assess its vulnerability and estimate its tolerance response in relation to temperature stress for a projected climate in the near term (2010-2025 years). In this chapter, the authors explored the impact of climate change on the argan tree regeneration.

Climate change will affect the water resources system, on global and regional levels. Over the past thirty years, the High Atlas Mountains in Morocco have experienced severe droughts, which causes a decrease in water supply that affects both agriculture and the urban water system. In this paper, we assess the impact of climate change and socio-economic activities on water supply and demand in the Ourika watershed (High Atlas of Morocco), then we evaluate the efficiency and sustainability of regional adaptation strategies for water supply management. For this, we simulate and analyze the future water situation using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the water assessment and planning tool (WEAP). After the model’s calibration and validation, the precipitation, minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, water demand and unmet water demand were projected for 2100 horizon, using different climate change scenarios. The results revealed that the model’s performance, calibration and validation were found to be satisfactory. The analysis shows that the mean precipitation will decrease by 49.25% and 34.61% by 2100, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The projected mean Tmax and Tmin will be warmer than the baseline period, with Tmax increasing by 4.2 °C (A2) and 3.6 °C (B2), and Tmin by 3.5 °C (A2) and 2.9 °C (B2) by 2100. The results also show that water demand and the unmet water demand will increase in all scenarios, the pressure on water resources will increase, leading to water scarcity. The results reveal that, under the influence of climate change, future unmet water demand is expected to reach 64 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2100. The results demonstrate that the assessments of the proposed adaptation strategies are effective, but not sufficient to ensure water sustainability for the Ourika watershed.