Henerica Tazvinga

The shift to renewable energy sources is widely seen as a promising way to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change. The abundance of renewable energy resources in Africa has enormous potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote climate resilience. This study conducted a bibliometric analysis of research trends in the adoption of renewable energy systems for climate change mitigation in Africa from 1993 to the first quarter of 2025. The results showed a steady growth in publications during the 2000s, with a growing annual rate of approximately 12.7%, reaching a peak in 2024, indicating increasing research interest in Africa. The thematic analysis highlights key but underdeveloped and emerging themes, including climate change mitigation, renewable energy sources, greenhouse gas assessment, climate change, energy policy, economic growth, carbon emissions, energy consumption, rural electrification, and energy transformation for further investigation. These findings also revealed regional disparities, highlighting the need to strengthen institutional capacity, develop clear long-term policies, and develop innovative financing mechanisms to expedite the deployment of renewable energy. Additionally, results from network analysis and emerging keyword detection revealed that enhanced regional and international cooperation, grid modernization, and technological innovation, such as energy storage and digital solutions, are vital in the developmental efforts to enhance optimized resource utilization and ensure energy access and security. The study thus provides insights into existing research gaps and future research directions, which will benefit policymakers, academics, and related stakeholders in their efforts to utilize Africa’s renewable energy potential to mitigate climate change, enable sustainable development, and achieve energy security throughout the continent.

The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) is considered a powerful tool that can be used to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution and variability of precipitation over a region. It plays a significant role in planning and managing water resources, including monitoring and forecasting drought and flood risks. As such, the present study used the PCI to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation in summer rainfall regions covering six selected South African provinces. Specifically, this study analysed monthly precipitation data from 49 rainfall districts spanning from 1979 to 2023 and assessed the spatio-temporal variability patterns of annual, seasonal and supra-seasonal PCI values and their trends based on the Mann–Kendall trend test. Pearson’s correlation was used to evaluate the relationship between the PCI values and precipitation across the provinces. Moderate annual PCI values were observed mainly in KwaZulu-Natal and the eastern regions of the Free State and Mpumalanga provinces. A large portion of the study site exhibited irregular annual precipitation concentrations. The PCI decreased by −1.5 and −1.2 magnitudes of change during 1979–1989 and 2000–2011 and increased by 2.1 and 2.8 magnitudes between 1990–2000 and 2012–2023, respectively. Uniform precipitation concentration was mostly recorded during the December–January–February (DJF) season. The entire study area recorded moderate precipitation concentration during the March–April–May (MAM) and September–October–November (SON) seasons (with exceptions for KwaZulu-Natal (KZN)). In addition, irregular precipitation concentration dominated during the June–July–August (JJA) rainy season. All provinces except KZN recorded positive trends in annual PCI. Also, positive trends in PCI were observed during the supra-wet season across the provinces, except KZN and in parts of the Free State. Furthermore, negative trends in seasonal PCI were mostly dominant during DJF and MAM, while positive trends were mostly observed during SON and JJA rainy seasons. The annual PCI values were positively correlated with annual precipitation in KZN, Free State and Limpopo, while negative correlations were observed in Mpumalanga and North West provinces. The results presented in this study contribute to drought and flood monitoring in support of water resource management and planning.

We assess site-specific surface shortwave radiation forecasts from two high-resolution configurations of the South African Weather Service numerical weather prediction model, at 4 and 1.5 km. The models exhibit good skill overall in forecasting surface shortwave radiation, with zero median error for all radiation components. This information is relevant to support a growing renewable energy sector in South Africa, particularly for photovoltaics. Further model performance analysis has shown an imbalance between cloud and solar radiation forecasting errors. In addition, cloud overprediction does not necessarily equate to underestimating solar radiation. Overcast cloud regimes are predicted too often with an associated positive mean radiation bias, whereas the relative abundance of partly cloudy regimes is underpredicted by the models with mixed radiation biases. Challenges highlighted by the misrepresentation of partly cloudy regimes in solar radiation error attribution may be used to inform improvements to the numerical core, namely, the cloud and radiation schemes. Significance Statement: This paper provides the first comprehensive assessment of high-resolution site-specific NWP forecasts of surface shortwave radiation in South Africa, exploring clouds as the main drivers of prediction biases. Error attribution analyses of this kind are close to none for this part of the world. Our study contributes to understanding how cloud and radiation schemes perform over South Africa, representing a step forward in the state of the art. In addition to the scientific interest, the capabilities developed through this work may benefit the second largest economy of the continent. In a country where energy security is of critical relevance, the availability of useful and usable weather information is paramount to support its industry and socioeconomic growth.

Solar energy forecasting is considered an essential scientific aspect in supporting efforts to integrate solar energy into power grids. Moreover, solar energy forecasting plays an essential role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and conserving energy for future use. This study conducted a bibliometric analysis to assess solar energy forecasting research studies evolution at the continental (Africa) and southern Africa levels. Key aspects of analysis included (i) scientific research trends, (ii) nature of collaboration networks, (iii) co-occurrence of keywords and (iv) emerging themes in solar energy forecasting over the last two decades, between the years 2000–2021. The results indicate that solar energy forecasting research has, on average, expanded by 6.4% and 3.3% in Africa and southern Africa, respectively. Based on the study context, solar energy forecasting research only gained momentum in 2015, peaking in 2019, but it is generally still subtle. The scientific mapping illustrated that only South Africa ranks among the leading countries that have produced high numbers of published documents and also leads in contributions to the research area in both Africa and southern Africa. Three emerging topics were identified from the thematic map analysis—namely, “solar irradiance”, “artificial intelligence” and “clear sky”, which implies that researchers are paying attention to solar irradiance, using modelling techniques that incorporate machine learning techniques. Overall, this study contributes to scientific information on the potential bankability of renewable energy projects that could assist power utilities, governments and policymakers in Africa to enforce the green economy through accelerated decarbonisation of the energy systems and building relationships with developed countries for support and better transitioning to solar energy. From a Water–Energy–Food nexus perspective, the results of this work could assist the scientific community in Africa to take advantage of the inherent interconnectedness of water, energy and food resources, whilst also advancing the use of integrated solutions to shape the focus of solar energy research into a more systems thinking and transdisciplinary approach involving the interconnected primary resources and stakeholders pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals.

This study assesses the performance of six global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models, namely: Bird, Simple Solis, McClear, Ineichen–Perez, Haurwitz and Berger–Duffie. The assessment is performed by comparing 1-min model outputs to corresponding clear sky reference 1-min Baseline Surface Radiation Network quality controlled GHI data from 13 South African Weather Services radiometric stations. The data used in the study range from 2013 to 2019. The 13 reference stations are across the six macro climatological regions of South Africa. The aim of the study is to identify the overall best performing clear sky model for estimating minute GHI in South Africa. Clear sky days are detected using ERA5 reanalysis hourly data and the application of an additional 1-min automated detection algorithm. Metadata for the models’ inputs were sourced from station measurements, satellite platform observations, reanalysis and some were modelled. Statistical metrics relative Mean Bias Error (rMBE), relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R²) are used to categorize model performance. The results show that each of the models performed differently across the 13 stations and in different climatic regions. The Bird model was overall the best in all regions, with an rMBE of 1.87%, rRMSE of 4.11% and R² of 0.998. The Bird model can therefore be used with quantitative confidence as a basis for solar energy applications when all the required model inputs are available.

The localization process seeks to ensure that the production of particular components occurs from local companies, thus restricting manufacturing to local firms. Solar Photovoltaic (PV) panels localization can stimulate regional economic development in coal phase-out regions. This paper uses the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model to assess the economic impact of enhanced solar PV localization and further analyses enhanced solar PV Local Content Requirements (LCRs) scenarios. The study determined that the optimization of LCRs has a positive influence on employment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) under the considered timeframes (2020−2030). Specifically, the study found that a total of Full-Time-Equivalent (FTE) jobs that would be created by a 100% LCRs will be 249 315 over 10 years. An 80% LCRs scenario projected that a total of 219 513 jobs will be created while the overall economic impact is estimated to be USD 74 975, 248.43 over 10 years.

Only 40% of Zimbabwe’s population has access to electricity. The greater proportion of the power is generated from thermal stations, with some from hydro and solar energy sources. However, there is little investment in the use of wind for electricity generation except for small installations in the Eastern Highlands, as Zimbabwe generally has wind speeds which are too low to be utilised for electricity generation. This paper presents the use of vertical wind profile extrapolation methods to determine the potential of generating electricity from wind at different hub heights in Zimbabwe, using the Hellman and exponential laws to estimate wind speeds. The estimated wind speeds are used to determine the potential of generating electricity from wind. Mangwe district in Matabeleland South province of Zimbabwe was used as a test site. Online weather datasets were used to estimate the wind speeds. The investigation shows that a 2.5kW wind turbine installation in Mangwe can generate more than 3MWh of energy per annum at hub heights above 40m, which is enough to supply power to a typical Zimbabwean rural village. This result will encourage investment in the use of wind to generate electricity in Zimbabwe. Highlights Wind power utilisation is low in Zimbabwe. Vertical wind profile is estimated using extrapolation methods. Online weather data for soil and water analysis tool was used. Electricity can viably be generated from wind in Zimbabwe.

Notwithstanding the dispersed nature of the water, energy and food (WEF) nexus scholarship in the African continent, its strategic importance to the African agenda has gained widespread attention in research and planning circles. In this regard, the bibliometric science mapping and content analysis of the WEF nexus scientific publication trends, the conceptual, intellectual and social structures, as well as the inherent paradigmatic shifts in the WEF nexus body of knowledge in the African continent have been undertaken, using the nexus body of literature accessed from the Web of Science and Scopus core collection databases. The review results confirmed that, whilst the WEF nexus scholarship has expanded since 2013, there is also evidence of growth in the conceptual, intellectual and social structures of the WEF nexus in the African continent. These shifts have resulted in the emergence of hot topics (subfields) including modelling and optimization, climate variability and change, environmental ecosystem services sustainability, and sustainable development and livelihoods. The review further determined that these structures have evolved along two main perspectives of WEF nexus research development, i.e., the interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary domains. In support of the interpretation of the visual analytics of the intellectual structure and changing patterns of the WEF nexus research, the shifts in positivist, interpretivist and pragmatic paradigmatic perspectives (these are underpinned by the ontology, epistemology, and methodology and methods) are considered when explaining WEF nexus research shifts: (a) From the unconnected silo paradigms that focus on water, energy and food (security concerns) to interconnected (and sometimes interdependent or nested) linkages or systems incorporating environmental, social-economic and political drivers (also viewed as subfields) in a bid to holistically support the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) across the African continent; and (b) in the evaluation of the WEF nexus scholarship based on novel analytical approaches. We contend that whilst the theories of science change underpin this apparent expansion, the macro-economic theory will find use in explaining how the WEF nexus research agenda is negotiated and the Integrative Environmental Governance (IEG) is the duly suited governance theory to bridge the inherent disconnect between WEF nexus output and governance processes uncovered in the literature. Overall, operational challenges and opportunities of the WEF nexus abound, transitioning the WEF nexus research to practice in Africa, motivating the need to take advantage of the scholar–practitioner research underpinnings, as contemplated in the transdisciplinary research approach, which is characterised by the dual quest for new knowledge and considerations of use. Yet, there is need for more coordinated and collaborative research to achieve impact and transition from WEF nexus thinking to WEF nexus practice.