Lucas Meirelles Pires Deotti

The increasing share of renewable sources in power systems has heightened operational complexity due to their inherent variability and intermittency. These characteristics challenge supply–demand forecasting, which must achieve high accuracy given the dependence on meteorological conditions and the non-dispatchable nature of renewable generation. In Brazil, where the energy matrix is strongly linked to natural resource availability, reliable forecasts are essential to ensure supply security and optimize system dispatch. Improved forecasting reduces reserve requirements and thermal plant activation, yielding both economic and environmental benefits. This study proposes an original methodological framework for short-term wind power forecasting at an hourly temporal resolution, with horizons of up to one month ahead, with emphasis on operational application by Independent System Operators (ISOs), particularly in Brazil. The framework considers the regulatory environment, international best practices, and sector-specific challenges. It employs a deterministic approach that integrates global numerical weather prediction models with historical wind farm data, enabling accurate representation of wind generation variability. The methodology is scalable and can be adopted by the Brazilian Independent System Operator (ISO) as well as other ISOs worldwide. The results demonstrate robust forecasting performance, achieving an average systematic error of approximately 4.5% for hourly forecasts one day ahead. For weekly aggregations, errors remain close to 3.4% in the first forecast week and gradually increase to 6.3% by the fifth week. These outcomes highlight the effectiveness of the proposed framework in supporting short-term operational planning and enhancing system reliability, efficiency, and sustainability in contexts with high penetration of wind power.

Traditional models of power systems are undergoing a restructuring process, stimulated by the growing deployment of renewable energy sources, making them more decentralized and progressively increasing the focus on the consumer. New arrangements are being explored, allowing consumers to play a more active role in energy systems, highlighting the concept of consumer-centric markets. This work presents an optimization model that considers the insertion of the battery energy storage system (BESS) in the concept of community energy markets. This model aims to increase the community income and includes the degradation of BESS, also evaluating different arrangements of BESS in the community markets. In the investigated scenarios, discussions about the feasibility of inserting BESS through the analysis of social welfare (SW) and fairness indicators were carried out. With the results, it was possible to observe that there are structures that are more advantageous from the perspective of the communities and others from the perspective of the members of the communities, bringing some insights into the different impacts of a BESS in an energy community.

According to the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61853 standard, the power rating of photovoltaic (PV) modules must be done on a measurement matrix that broadly covers the ranges of operating conditions encountered in the field. These results are becoming more frequent in recent module datasheets. This paper investigates the effectiveness of applying existing empirical PV performance models while using a matrix with 18 operational records, similar to the 22 that were recommended by IEC 61853, as an alternative to the thousands of records that are conventionally used to determine their coefficients. A review of fifteen empirical models is presented and the procedures for determining their coefficients are discussed. In order to validate them, they were applied to data from fourteen PV modules, which remained installed outdoors for about one year, in three locations with distinct climate types. Although the uncertainties that were obtained with the proposed approach, as compared to the conventional one, are about 1% higher for xSi and CdTe modules, and somewhat higher for mSi and CIGS modules, the total uncertainties were only around 5%, a value that is quite adequate for evaluating module performance. Moreover, these uncertainties were from two to five times smaller than those that were obtained by the method that was recommended by IEC 61853 for this purpose.

This paper presents a comprehensive study of the technical and economic benefits that a typical residential prosumer may experience when investing in a solar photovoltaic (PV) system with a battery energy storage system (BESS). To this end, a home energy management system has been designed to simulate the prosumer’s daily operation, considering a novel method for calculating battery degradation while minimizing its operating costs. In order to contribute to the regulatory review process of the distributed generation underway in Brazil, a set of PV+BESS configurations has been assessed under the current and future regulatory scenarios proposed for discussion by the Brazilian regulatory agency. Although the results demonstrate that the prosumer’s self-consumption rate may increase up to 14% with the BESS coupling in the PV system, the investment proved to be economically unattractive in the current regulatory scenario and practically unfeasible in any of the proposed future scenarios. To make PV+BESS systems economically feasible, some business models are proposed and discussed, and for example, provide subsidies for policymakers, financial agents, and battery manufacturers. A sensitivity analysis for each business model showing its economic feasibility spectrum is provided to assist the different sector players, especially the consumers, in their decision-making process.

In this paper, a modified version of the directional bat algorithm (DBA) is proposed to fast and accurately extract the five parameters of the one-diode photovoltaic model from experimental data. In order to improve the exploit feature of the DBA, a random flight step based on the Lévy distribution is introduced. Additionally a dynamic procedure to correct any solution found which violates the established parameters bounds, during the solution process, is proposed. Tests were carried out on two commercial photovoltaic devices and the results demonstrated that for these two cases at least, the proposed algorithm named Lévy flight directional bat algorithm (LDBA), is more efficient and robust than the DBA and other well-established metaheuristic algorithms presented in the literature.

Desde a promulgação da Resolução Normativa nº 482 de 2012, da Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica, a sociedade brasileira vive a expectativa de ver a expansão dos sistemas microgeração solar fotovoltaica, sobretudo, no âmbito residencial. Entretanto, somente após as diversas medidas tomadas em 2015, em prol desta, é que de fato se começou a verificar o seu real desenvolvimento. Neste contexto, as figuras trazidas pela Resolução Normativa nº 687 de 2015, apresentaram uma nova rota para o consumidor de baixa tensão se beneficiar das oportunidades oferecidas pela geração distribuída, de modo que no último ano, foi verificado um descolamento considerável entre o número de unidades de microgeração e o número de consumidores cadastrados no sistema de compensação. Assim, uma vez sinalizado pela Empresa de Pesquisa Energética que nos próximos anos os consumidores residenciais com consumo superior a 500 kWh/mês, devem ser a maior parcela a adquirir sistemas desse tipo, o presente trabalho se propõe a investigar qual seria a real atratividade que estes poderiam experimentar caso almejassem não somente compensar o seu consumo residencial, mas também, o consumo de uma outra unidade sob sua mesma titularidade, isto é, a figura do “autoconsumo remoto”. Para tanto, é realizado o projeto otimizado de um sistema com potência nominal de 5.400 Wp, para uma residência localizada em Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais. Com uma expectativa de produção próxima de 7.600 kWh/ano, este sistema é capaz de compensar integralmente o consumo anual da residência e, ainda, quase 55% do consumo anual de uma unidade comercial associada ao seu proprietário. Embora os seus indicadores de investimento revelem resultados positivos, a se destacar o período de retorno inferior a 8 anos, constatou-se que estes só não são mais atrativos, pois, existem imperfeições no sistema de compensação que penalizam de sobremaneira os consumidores adeptos do autoconsumo remoto.