Adrián Dios-Vicente

Este traballo trata a evolución económica recente do sector da prensa impresa en Galiza. Alén da crise económica xeral de 2008, o sector sufriu a súa propia crise estrutural provocada pola emerxencia da Internet. Para estudar o impacto desta dobre crise e a resposta das empresas do sector, realizamos unha análise económica-financeira dunha mostra de 13 empresas galegas editoras de xornais en papel durante o período 2008-2018, centrándonos na rendibilidade e nas súas principais compoñentes. Os resultados mostran unha caída da facturación que se prolonga durante todo o período, incluída a fase de crecemento económico, síntoma do declive do papel como soporte xornalístico. Porén, tras unha etapa de crise marcada por rendibilidades negativas, as empresas conseguiron recuperarse grazas a un axuste no volume de activos totais e nos custes operativos máis intenso que a caída experimentada polas vendas, tornando máis pequenas e máis eficientes.

Digitalisation led to a structural crisis in the newspaper industry, undermining revenues from both readers and advertisers. Economies of scale play a central role in the newspaper business, but in a context of falling incomes, the major route to take advantage of them is the reduction in the asset size and operating costs. The digital business model can be a way to increase companies’ profitability, as online-only media publishers do not need as many assets and costs as their print counterparts to operate. Digitalisation is particularly interesting for local news outlets, since they operate in small markets and could have difficulties to reach an optimal size. However, there are little empirical evidence on how digital business models influence the profitability of newspapers. Using a sample of 198 and 69 Spanish print and online-only media publishers, respectively, during the period 2008–2018 and applying a dynamic panel data methodology, this article analyses the extent to which the main features defining print vs. digital business models affect firms’ profitability. Empirical evidence reveals a better performance of digital publishers, with lower material costs being the route through which the digital business model benefits from the economies of scale and achieves greater efficiency.

The end of the economic crisis initiated in 2008 was not the end of the newspaper crisis. The shifts introduced by digitalisation are increasingly deeper, and advertising spending on newspapers continued to fall during the economic recovery. To study how the firms adapted to this declining market, this article performs an in-depth financial analysis of 98 Spanish print newspaper publishers over the period 2009–2018, focusing on profitability. The results show very low or even negative returns on assets, but a positive trend in profitability is observed from 2014 onwards, despite the stagnation of advertising spending. Companies reduced their costs to a greater extent than the fall in revenues, improving their profit margins. National newspapers increased total asset turnover via decapitalisations, becoming smaller and more efficient.

Research on coverage of the economic developments in the run-up to the 2008 crisis concludes that the media did not warn of the risks involved, failing in their watchdog role by not anticipating the crisis. However, a key issue remains unaddressed: what would have happened if the media had warned about the factors of instability that led to the crisis? This article explores some answers to this question, for the 2008 crisis and for economic crises in general. To do this, we perform a joint critical review of the literature on watchdog journalism, on economic crises theories, and on media effects on the economy. More specifically, we consider the media’s influence on financial markets, on macroeconomic dynamics (via conditioning the households’ and firms’ behavior), and on economic policy; discussing, at the theoretical level and supported by the empirical evidence available, the ways each kind of media influence could (or not) prevent a structural economic crisis. If the crisis is interpreted as the consequence of dysfunctions in the economic model, or specific errors by agents, it is logical to think that the media could have helped prevent it, by warning of the dangers and promoting changes in public policies and investment decisions. If, on the other hand, the crisis is understood as a necessary readjustment of capitalism in the face of an exhausted accumulation model, the media’s influence would have been very limited in terms of preventing it.