Ian Mackay

Recommended List (RL) is the UK plant variety recommendation system introduced in 1944 for supporting growers in making decisions on variety choices. The current RL system is heavily focused on single-trial analyses developed in the 1980s without making full use of information across varieties and trial sites. Given the statistical advances that have been developed and adopted elsewhere, it is timely to review and update the methods for data analysis in RL. In addition, threats from climate change challenge the prediction of variety performance in future environments. Better variety recommendations, particularly for matching varieties to specific environments can be achieved through the improved modeling of effects from genetics, environments, and genetic-by-environment interactions. Here, we evaluate grain yield data from 153 spring barley varieties that were trialed for RL from 2002 to 2019. Our results show that the current RL system produces poor and inconsistent predictions on variety performance across environments. Improvement in RL can be achieved by using mixed models that account for genetic relationships among varieties, and additional improvement is possible if genetic-by-environment interaction can be modeled accurately. We highlight the relevance and importance of genomics in both variety registration and recommendation.

Recommended List (RL) is the UK plant variety recommendation system introduced in 1944 for supporting growers in making decisions on variety choices. The current analysis for RL is largely based on published works on trial designs and statistical analyses in the 1980s. Given the statistical advances that have been developed and adopted elsewhere, it is timely to review and update the methods for data analysis in RL. In addition, threats from climate change challenge the prediction of variety performance in future environments. Better variety recommendations, particularly for matching varieties to specific environments can be achieved through improved modeling of effects from genetics, environments and genetic by environment interactions. Here, we evaluated grain yield data from 153 spring barley varieties that were trialed for RL from 2002 to 2019. Our results show that the available methods for predicting variety performance are poor and inconsistent across environments without any clearly superior method. However, these shortcomings can be easily overcome by switching the statistical model for analyzing RL data to one that fits variety effects as random and accounts for genetic relationships among varieties. Lastly, we also discuss other possible approaches for analyzing RL data and highlight the relevance of genomics in both variety registration and recommendation.

Barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare) is cultivated globally across a wide range of environments, both in highly productive agricultural systems and in subsistence agriculture and provides valuable feedstock for the animal feed and malting industries. However, as the climate changes there is an urgent need to identify adapted barley varieties that will consistently yield highly under increased environmental stresses. Our ability to predict future local climates is only as good as the skill of the climate model, however we can look back over 100 years with much greater certainty. Historical weather datasets are an excellent resource for identifying causes of historical yield variability. In this research we combined recently digitised historical weather data from the early 20th century with published Irish spring barley trials data for two heritage varieties: Archer and Goldthorpe, following an analysis first published by Student in 1923. Using linear mixed models, we show that interannual variation in observed spring barley yields can be partially explained by recorded weather variability, in particular July maximum temperature and rainfall, and August maximum temperature. We find that while Archer largely yields more highly, Goldthorpe is more stable under wetter growing conditions, highlighting the importance of considering growing climate in variety selection. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the benefits of access to historical trials and climatic data and the importance of incorporating climate data in modern day breeding programmes to improve climate resilience of future varieties.

Cereal crop breeders have achieved considerable genetic gain in genetically complex traits, such as grain yield, while maintaining genetic diversity. However, focus on selection for yield has negatively impacted other important traits. To better understand selection within a breeding context, and how it might be optimised, we analysed genotypic and phenotypic data from a diverse, 16-founder wheat multi-parent advanced generation inter-cross (MAGIC) population. Compared to single-trait models, multi-trait ensemble genomic prediction models increased prediction accuracy for almost 90% of traits, improving grain yield prediction accuracy by 3-52%. For complex traits, non-parametric models (Random Forest) also outperformed simplified, additive models (LASSO), increasing grain yield prediction accuracy by 10-36%. Simulations of recurrent genomic selection then showed that sustained greater forward prediction accuracy optimised long-term genetic gains. Simulations of selection on grain yield found indirect responses in related traits, which involved optimisation of antagonistic trait relationships. We found multi-trait selection indices could be used to optimise undesirable relationships, such as the trade-off between grain yield and protein content, or combine traits of interest, such as yield and weed competitive ability. Simulations of phenotypic selection found that including Random Forest rather than LASSO genetic models, and multi-trait rather than single-trait models as the true genetic model, accelerated and extended long-term genetic gain whilst maintaining genetic diversity. These results suggest important roles of pleiotropy and epistasis in the wider context of wheat breeding programmes and provide insights into mechanisms for continued genetic gain in a limited genepool and optimisation of multiple traits for crop improvement.

Key Message: Modeling of the distribution of allele frequency over year of variety release identifies major loci involved in historical breeding of winter wheat. Winter wheat is a major crop with a rich selection history in the modern era of crop breeding. Genetic gains across economically important traits like yield have been well characterized and are the major force driving its production. Winter wheat is also an excellent model for analyzing historical genetic selection. As a proof of concept, we analyze two major collections of winter wheat varieties that were bred in Western Europe from 1916 to 2010, namely the Triticeae Genome (TG) and WAGTAIL panels, which include 333 and 403 varieties, respectively. We develop and apply a selection mapping approach, Regression of Alleles on Years (RALLY), in these panels, as well as in simulated populations. RALLY maps loci under sustained historical selection by using a simple logistic model to regress allele counts on years of variety release. To control for drift-induced allele frequency change, we develop a hybrid approach of genomic control and delta control. Within the TG panel, we identify 22 significant RALLY quantitative selection loci (QSLs) and estimate the local heritabilities for 12 traits across these QSLs. By correlating predicted marker effects with RALLY regression estimates, we show that alleles whose frequencies have increased over time are heavily biased toward conferring positive yield effect, but negative effects in flowering time, lodging, plant height and grain protein content. Altogether, our results (1) demonstrate the use of RALLY to identify selected genomic regions while controlling for drift, and (2) reveal key patterns in the historical selection in winter wheat and guide its future breeding.

In general terms, pre-breeding links needed traits to new varieties and encompasses activities from discovery research, exploration of gene banks, phenomics, genomics and breeding. How does pre-breeding given its importance differ from varietal-based breeding? Why is pre-breeding important? Pre-breeding identifies trait or trait combinations to help boost yield, protect it from biotic or abiotic stress, and enhance nutritional or quality characteristics of grain. Sources of new traits/alleles are typically found in germplasm banks, and include the following categories of ‘exotic’ material: obsolete varieties, landraces, products of interspecific hybridization within the Triticeae such as chromosome translocation lines, primary synthetic genotypes and their derivatives, and related species mainly from the primary or secondary gene pools (Genus: Triticum and Aegilops). Genetic and/or phenotyping tools are used to incorporate novel alleles/traits into elite varieties. While pre-breeding is mainly associated with use of exotics, unconventional crosses or selection methodologies aimed to accumulate novel combinations of alleles or traits into good genetic backgrounds may also be considered pre-breeding. In the current chapter, we focus on pre-breeding involving research-based screening of genetic resources, strategic crossing to combine complementary traits/alleles and progeny selection using phenomic and genomic selection, aiming to bring new functional diversity into use for development of elite cultivars.

Association mapping using crop cultivars allows identification of genetic loci of direct relevance to breeding. Here, 150 U.K. wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars genotyped with 23,288 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were used for genome‐wide association studies (GWAS) using historical phenotypic data for grain protein content, Hagberg falling number (HFN), test weight, and grain yield. Power calculations indicated experimental design would enable detection of quantitative trait loci (QTL) explaining ≥20% of the variation (PVE) at a relatively high power of >80%, falling to 40% for detection of a SNP with an R²≥ .5 with the same QTL. Genome‐wide association studies identified marker‐trait associations for all four traits. For HFN (h² = .89), six QTL were identified, including a major locus on chromosome 7B explaining 49% PVE and reducing HFN by 44 s. For protein content (h² = 0.86), 10 QTL were found on chromosomes 1A, 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B, and 6B, together explaining 48.9% PVE. For test weight, five QTL were identified (one on 1B and four on 3B; 26.3% PVE). Finally, 14 loci were identified for grain yield (h² = 0.95) on eight chromosomes (1A, 2A, 2B, 2D, 3A, 5B, 6A, 6B; 68.1% PVE), of which five were located within 16 Mbp of genetic regions previously identified as under breeder selection in European wheat. Our study demonstrates the utility of exploiting historical crop datasets, identifying genomic targets for independent validation, and ultimately for wheat genetic improvement.

All stage resistance to stripe rust races prevalent in India was investigated in the European winter wheat cultivar ‘Acienda’. In order to dissect the genetic basis of the resistance, a backcross population was developed between ‘Acienda’ and the stripe rust susceptible Indian spring wheat cultivar ‘HD 2967’. Inheritance studies revealed segregation for a dominant resistant gene. High density SNP genotyping was used to map stripe rust resistance and marker regression analysis located stripe rust resistance to the distal end of wheat chromosome 1A. Interval mapping located this region between the SNP markers AX-95162217 and AX-94540853, at a LOD score of 15.83 with a phenotypic contribution of 60%. This major stripe rust resistance locus from ‘Acienda’ has been temporarily designated as Yraci. A candidate gene search in the 2.76 Mb region carrying Yraci on chromosome 1A identified 18 NBS-LRR genes based on wheat RefSeqv1.0 annotations. Our results indicate that as there is no major gene reported in the Yraci chromosome region, it is likely to be a novel stripe rust resistance locus and offers potential for deployment, using the identified markers, to confer all stage stripe rust resistance.

Winter wheat is a major crop with a rich selection history in the modern era of crop breeding. Genetic gains across economically important traits like yield have been well characterized and are the major force driving its production. Winter wheat is also an excellent model for analyzing historical genetic selection. As a proof of concept, we analyze two major collections of winter wheat varieties that were bred in western Europe from 1916 to 2010, namely the Triticeae Genome (TG) and WAGTAIL panels, which include 333 and 403 varieties respectively. We develop and apply a selection mapping approach, Regression of Alleles on Years (RALLY), in these panels, as well as in simulated populations. RALLY maps loci under sustained historical selection by using a simple logistic model to regress allele counts on years of variety release. To control for drift-induced allele frequency change, we develop a hybrid approach of genomic control and delta control. Within the TG panel, we identify 22 significant RALLY quantitative selection loci (QSLs) and estimate the local heritabilities for 12 traits across these QSLs. By correlating predicted marker effects with RALLY regression estimates, we show that alleles whose frequencies have increased over time are heavily biased towards conferring positive yield effect, but negative effects in flowering time, lodging, plant height and grain protein content. Altogether, our results (1) demonstrate the use of RALLY to identify selected genomic regions while controlling for drift, and (2) reveal key patterns in the historical selection in winter wheat and guide its future breeding. Key Message Modelling of the distribution of allele frequency over year of variety release identifies major loci involved in historical breeding of winter wheat.

Key message: Variety age and population structure detect novel QTL for yield and adaptation in wheat and barley without the need to phenotype. The process of crop breeding over the last century has delivered new varieties with increased genetic gains, resulting in higher crop performance and yield. However, in many cases, the alleles and genomic regions underpinning this success remain unknown. This is partly due to the difficulty of generating sufficient phenotypic data on large numbers of historical varieties to enable such analyses. Here we demonstrate the ability to circumvent such bottlenecks by identifying genomic regions selected over 100 years of crop breeding using age of a variety as a surrogate for yield. Rather than collecting phenotype data, we deployed ‘environmental genome-wide association scans’ (EnvGWAS) based on variety age in two of the world’s most important crops, wheat and barley, and detected strong signals of selection across both genomes. EnvGWAS identified 16 genomic regions in barley and 10 in wheat with contrasting patterns between spring and winter types of the two crops. To further examine changes in genome structure, we used the genomic relationship matrix of the genotypic data to derive eigenvectors for analysis in EigenGWAS. This detected seven major chromosomal introgressions that contributed to adaptation in wheat. EigenGWAS and EnvGWAS based on variety age avoid costly phenotyping and facilitate the identification of genomic tracts that have been under selection during breeding. Our results demonstrate the potential of using historical cultivar collections coupled with genomic data to identify chromosomal regions under selection and may help guide future plant breeding strategies to maximise the rate of genetic gain and adaptation.