Mingzhe Pu

Against the backdrop of increasing financialization of grain markets, the cross-cycle and cross-market contagion among commodities has been intensifying. To investigate the risk spillover among commodities across different cycles, this study selected UK WTI crude oil and soybean, corn, and wheat futures prices from the Chicago Board of Trade as research subjects. Using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), the original sequences were decomposed into sub-sequences of different frequencies. Based on these frequency characteristics, long-term, medium-term, and short-term fluctuations were constructed. The BEKK-GARCH model was then applied to explore the volatility spillover across markets under different cycles. The results indicate that in terms of pricing mechanisms, crude oil futures dominate the price fluctuations of grain futures. In terms of risk spillover across different cycles, there is a bidirectional risk spillover effect between crude oil and grain futures in short-term and medium-term fluctuations, while in long-term fluctuations, there is only a unidirectional transmission from crude oil futures to grain futures. Based on the research findings, this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations, aiming to provide government regulatory authorities and futures investors with policy guidance and a theoretical foundation across different cycles.

The sustainability of rice-cropping systems hinges on balancing resources, output, and environmental impacts. China is revitalizing the ancient ratoon rice (RR) system for input savings and environmental benefits. Prior research has explored the RR system’s performance using various individual indicators, but few studies have focused on its overall balance of these factors. Environmental efficiency (EE) analysis addresses this gap. Using field survey data from Hunan Province in China and the slacks-based data envelopment analysis method, we quantified the EE of the RR, double-season rice (DR), and single-season rice (SR) systems. Key findings include: (1) the RR system outperforms in carbon emissions and non-point source pollution; (2) the RR system’s EE is 0.67, significantly higher than the DR (0.58) and SR (0.57) systems, indicating superior performance; and (3) despite its relatively high EE, the RR system can still improve, mainly due to input redundancy and production value shortfall. These findings provide strategies for optimizing RR systems to enhance agricultural sustainability.

Improving the efficiency of fertilizer usage is important to achieve sustainable agricultural production. As a major agricultural producer, China formally proposed a national fertilizer reduction and efficiency initiative in 2015. Using the double stochastic meta-frontier method to measure the fertilizer use efficiency of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2005 to 2019, this study evaluates the effectiveness of the said initiative on grain production. The results show that China’s initiative has achieved some success, with the average value of fertilizer use efficiency in national grain production increasing by 2.53 percentage points. However, the changes in fertilizer use efficiency show regional heterogeneity. Specifically, the fertilizer use efficiency of the main grain-producing and marketing regions has increased significantly, while that of grain-producing-and-marketing-balanced regions has declined. Further investigation shows that this phenomenon may be related to the importance attached by local governments to the initiative and the uneven distribution of related resources.

The spread of COVID-19 has affected not only public health but also agriculture, raising global concerns regarding the food system. As an immediate impact of COVID-19, farmers around the globe have had difficulties with sales, resulting in large amounts of overstocked agricultural products and food loss. This further threatens the livelihood of rural, poor farmers and impacts sustainable production. To provide a better understanding of the overstocking situation after the outbreak of the pandemic, this study depicts the distribution characteristics of overstocked agricultural products in China. After analyzing a nationwide data set collected from 3482 individuals/organizations by the Chinese Agri-products Marketing Association after the outbreak of the pandemic, we found that some of the initial prevention and control measures disrupted sales channels, and in turn, caused the farmers to suffer losses. The impact was more severe in perishable products and their production areas, as well as in poverty-stricken regions. Then, we identified China’s quick and effective actions to match the supply and demand. These findings suggest that emergency responses should coordinate the relationship between emergency actions and the necessary logistics of agricultural production. To prepare for the possibility of such shock in the future, the government should take actions to clear logistics obstacles for necessary transportation, keep enhancing the fundamental infrastructure and effective mechanism of the food supply chain, and actively include innovative techniques to build a more resilient food system.