Juan Carlos Pinilla Suárez

UK forestry faces increasing drought risk under climate change, raising concerns about the resilience of Sitka spruce, the UK’s dominant commercial conifer. This study assessed whether hyperspectral vegetation indices can detect intraspecific drought responses to support resilience screening. An eight-week controlled drought experiment was conducted on 60 grafted Sitka spruce trees representing six clonal groups from the UK breeding population. Needle-level hyperspectral reflectance was used to derive vegetation indices associated with chlorophyll status, photoprotective pigments, and water content, alongside chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm). Pigment-based and red-edge indices showed the strongest sensitivity to drought, with ARI1 increasing by up to 1.2 under drought relative to controls, while water-related indices captured later-stage hydraulic decline. Clonal variation was detected in the timing and magnitude of pigment regulation, water loss, and photosynthetic impairment, indicating contrasting drought-response trajectories among clones. These results demonstrate that hyperspectral approaches enable rapid, non-destructive detection of physiologically meaningful drought responses and can support the identification of drought-resilient genotypes for climate-adaptive forest management.

Under climate change, extreme wind events are predicted to become both more common and more severe, increasing the vulnerability of plantation forests. In February 2023, ex-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle caused widespread wind damage to radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) forests across the North Island of New Zealand, providing a rare opportunity to evaluate mechanistic wind-risk modelling under extreme storm conditions. This study assessed the performance of the ForestGALES model in predicting wind damage within the Rangipo genetic accelerator trial and examined the influence of stocking and cultivation on wind vulnerability. Using detailed pre-cyclone field measurements and high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle light detection and ranging (ULS) data, ForestGALES was parameterised for the Rangipo trial and applied at both individual-tree and stand scales. Model predictions were compared with observed post-cyclone damage using balanced area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accounting for strong class imbalance. Wind damage was observed in 16.7% of trees, of which 10.2% showed stem breakage and 6.5% overturning. Across both spatial scales, overturning was more accurately predicted than stem breakage. At the individual-tree scale, ForestGALES showed moderate predictive skill, with balanced AUC values of 0.650 ± 0.014 for overturning, 0.595 ± 0.011 for breakage, and 0.621 ± 0.008 for total damage. Model performance was stronger at the stand scale, where discrimination was highest for overturning (AUC 0.811 ± 0.122), followed by breakage (0.693 ± 0.116) and total damage (0.623 ± 0.083). Silvicultural treatments significantly influenced predicted critical wind speeds (CWS). High-stocking treatments exhibited consistently higher CWS values and therefore greater wind firmness than low-stocking treatments, while cultivation effects were smaller but significant. Simulated reductions in stocking further demonstrated increased wind vulnerability as stocking declined, highlighting thinning as a primary determinant of wind risk. These findings demonstrate that ForestGALES can reliably discriminate wind damage at operational stand scales under extreme cyclone conditions and highlight the importance of stand structure in improving plantation resilience under increasingly storm-prone climates.

UK forestry faces increasing drought risk under climate change, raising concerns about the resilience of Sitka spruce, the UK’s dominant commercial conifer. This study assessed whether hyperspectral vegetation indices can detect intraspecific drought responses to support resilience screening. An eight-week controlled drought experiment was con-ducted on six clonal groups, using needle-level hyperspectral reflectance to derive indices of chlorophyll status, photoprotective pigments, and water content, alongside chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm). Drought responses were detected across multiple indices, with pigment-based and red-edge indices showing the earliest and strongest sensitivity, while water-related indices captured later-stage hydraulic decline. Significant clonal variation was observed in the timing and magnitude of pigment regulation, water loss, and photosynthetic impairment, indicating contrasting drought response strategies. These results demonstrate that hyperspectral approaches enable rapid, non-destructive detec-tion of physiologically meaningful drought responses and can support the identification of drought-resilient genotypes for climate-adaptive forest management.

Storm damage poses an increasing risk to radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) plantations in New Zealand as extreme wind events intensify under climate change. This study quantified wind damage following ex-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle in a seven-year-old genetics trial comprising 12 genotypes grown under four stand configurations defined by contrasting stocking (833 and 1282 stems/ha) and cultivation (with and without cultivation) treatments. The genotypes comprised a Pinus attenuata × P. radiata var. cedrosensis hybrid, ten anonymised radiata pine clones and an industry-standard radiata pine seedlot. Field assessments and unmanned aerial vehicle UAV laser scanning were used to classify damage into stem breakage and overturning and to derive structural metrics, including tree diameter, height, slenderness, volume, crown width and crown volume. Overall, 16.7% of trees were damaged, with stem breakage (10.2%) occurring more frequently than overturning (6.5%). Averaged across the four treatments, total damage significantly ranged from 10.4% in the high stocking cultivated treatment to 23.5% in the low stocking no cultivation treatment. Variation between the 12 genotypes was highly significant, with breakage, overturning and total damage ranging from 3.3%–25.4%, 1.4%–15.0% and 6.6%–29.5%, respectively, between the 12 genotypes. Two radiata pine clones with high growth rates and low to moderate wind damage had the highest post-storm total stem volume per hectare, which greatly exceeded that of the hybrid or the widely planted radiata pine seedlot. These findings highlight the potential of clones that combine high growth rates and resistance to wind damage to maintain high productivity under a changing climate with a greater frequency of extreme weather events.

As the frequency of strong storms and cyclones increases, understanding wind risk in both existing and newly established plantation forests is becoming increasingly important. Recent advances in the quality and availability of remotely sensed data have significantly improved our capability to make large-scale wind risk predictions. This study models the loss of radiata pine (Pinus radiata D.Don) plantations following a severe cyclone within the Gisborne Region of New Zealand through leveraging repeat regional LiDAR acquisitions, optical imagery, and various surfaces describing key climatic, topographic, and storm-specific conditions. A random forest model was trained on 9713 plots classified as windthrow or no-windthrow. Model validation using 50 iterations of 80/20 train/test splits achieved robust accuracy (accuracy = 0.835; F1 score = 0.841; AUC = 0.913). In comparison to most European empirical models (AUC = 0.51–0.90), our framework demonstrated superior discrimination, underscoring its value for regions prone to cyclones. Among the 14 predictor variables, the most influential were mean windspeed during February, the wind exposition index, site drainage, and stand age. Model predictions closely aligned with the estimated 3705 hectares of cyclone-induced forest damage and indicated that 20.9% of unplanted areas in the region would be at risk of windthrow at age 30 if established in radiata pine. The resulting wind risk surface serves as a valuable decision-support tool for forest managers, helping to mitigate wind risk in existing forests and guide adaptive afforestation strategies. Although developed for radiata pine plantations in New Zealand, the approach and findings have broader relevance for forest management in cyclone-prone regions worldwide, particularly where plantation forestry is widely practised.

In the northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia, a region characterized by diverse ecosystems, significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes have occurred due to a combination of environmental fragility and human pressures. The implications of these changes for ecosystem service values remain underexplored. This study quantifies the impact of LULC changes, with an emphasis on the expansion of plantation forests, on ecosystem service values in monetary terms to promote sustainable land management practices. Using Landsat images and the Random Forest algorithm in R, LULC patterns from 1985 to 2020 were analyzed, with the ecosystem service values estimated using locally adapted coefficients. The Random Forest classification demonstrated a high accuracy, with values of 0.97, 0.98, 0.96, and 0.97 for the LULC maps of 1985, 2000, 2015, and 2020, respectively. Croplands consistently dominated the landscape, accounting for 53.66% of the area in 1985, peaking at 67.35% in 2000, and then declining to 52.86% by 2020. Grasslands, initially the second-largest category, significantly decreased, while wetlands diminished from 14.38% in 1985 to 1.87% by 2020. Conversely, plantation forests, particularly Acacia decurrens, expanded from 0.4% of the area in 2000 to 28.13% by 2020, becoming the second-largest land cover type. The total ecosystem service value in the district declined from USD 219.52 million in 1985 to USD 39.23 million in 2020, primarily due to wetland degradation. However, plantation forests contributed USD 17.37 million in 2020, highlighting their significant role in restoring ecosystem services, particularly in erosion control, soil formation, nutrient recycling, climate regulation, and habitat provision. This study underscores the need for sustainable land management practices, including wetland restoration and sustainable plantation forestry, to enhance ecosystem services and ensure long-term ecological and economic sustainability.

Small-scale Acacia decurrens plantation forests, established by farmers on degraded lands, have become increasingly prevalent in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. This trend has been particularly notable in Fagita Lekoma District over the past few decades. Such plantations play a significant role in addressing concerns related to sustainable agricultural land use, mitigating the adverse effects of deforestation, and meeting the livelihood and energy requirements of a growing population. However, the spatial distribution of Acacia decurrens and the essential remote sensing and environmental variables that determine its distribution are not well understood. This study aimed to model the spatial distribution of Acacia decurrens plantation forests using PlanetScope data and environmental variables combined with a species distribution model (SDM). Employing 557 presence/absence points, noncollinear variables were identified and utilized as input for six SDM algorithms, with a 70:30 split between training and test data, and 10-fold bootstrap replication. The model performance was evaluated using the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUC) and true skill statics (TSS). The ensemble model, which combined results from six individual algorithms, was implemented to predict the spatial distribution of Acacia decurrens. The highest accuracy with the values of 0.93 (AUC) and 0.82 (TSS) was observed using random forest (RF), followed by SVM with values of 0.89 (AUC) and 0.71 (TSS), and BRT with values of 0.89 (AUC) and 0.7 (TSS). According to the ensemble model result, Acacia decurrens plantation forests cover 22.44% of the district, with the spatial distribution decreasing towards lower elevation areas in the northeastern and western parts of the district. The major determinant variables for identifying the species were vegetation indices, specifically CVI, ARVI, and GI, with AUC metric values of 39.3%, 16%, and 7.1%, respectively. The findings of this study indicate that the combination of high-resolution remote sensing-derived vegetation indices and environmental variables using SDM could play a vital role in identifying Acacia decurrens plantations, offering valuable insights for land use planning and management strategies. Moreover, comprehending the spatial distribution’s extent is crucial baseline information for assessing its environmental implications at a local scale.

This study addresses the escalating challenges posed by forest drought and wildfires, emphasizing the critical need to monitor forest conditions to mitigate associated risks. While traditional optical sensors have proven valuable for vegetation surface water (VSW) assessment, their limitations in regions with persistent cloud cover prompt an exploration of the alternatives. The study advocates the efficacy of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) systems, known for their cloud-penetrating capabilities and sensitivity to changes in dielectric properties. Leveraging Sentinel-1 C-band dual polarization SAR data, the research investigates the impact of Vegetation Surface Water (VSW) on backscatter coefficients in a temperate coniferous forest through the application of generalized linear models. Despite the challenges posed by precipitation and canopy characteristics, the study unveils detectable modulation in backscatter, particularly in VH polarization, indicating the potential of SAR-based methods in forest monitoring. The occurrence of rain on the day of Sentinel-1 image acquisition, and therefore the presence of VSW, triggers an increase of 0.35 dB in VV backscatter, and an increase of 0.45 dB in VH backscatter. The findings underscore the importance of considering surface water content in radar backscatter analyses for accurate biomass estimations and change detection, suggesting avenues for future research and potential correction mechanisms.

Vegetation is an essential component of the terrestrial ecosystem and has changed significantly over the last two decades in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. However, previous studies have focused on the detection of bitemporal change and lacked the incorporation of entire vegetation time series changes, which are considered significant indicators of ecosystem conditions. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series dataset from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is an efficient method for analyzing the dynamics of vegetation change over a lengthy period using remote sensing techniques. This study aimed to utilize time series satellite data to detect vegetation changes from 2000 to 2020 and investigate their links with ecosystem conditions. The time-series satellite processing package (TIMESAT) was used to estimate the seasonal parameter values of NDVI and their correlation across the seasons during the study period. Break Detection for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) was applied to identify the year of breakpoints, the direction of magnitude, and the number of breakpoints. The results were reported, analyzed, and linked to ecosystem conditions. The overall trend in the study area increased from 0.58 (2000–2004) to 0.65 (2015–2020). As a result, ecosystem condition indicators such as peak value (PV), base value (BV), amplitude (Amp), and large integral (LI) exhibited significant positive trends, particularly for Acacia decurrens plantations, Eucalyptus plantations, and grasslands, but phenology indicator parameters such as start of season (SOS), end of season (EOS), and length of season (LOS) did not show significant trends for almost any vegetation type. The most abrupt changes were recorded in 2015 (24.7%), 2012 (18.6%), and 2014 (9.8%). Approximately 30% of the vegetation changes were positive in magnitude. The results of this study imply that there was an improvement in the ecosystem’s condition following the establishment of the Acacia decurrens plantation. The findings are considered relevant inputs for policymakers and serve as an initial stage for the assessment of the other environmental and climatic implications of Acacia decurrens plantations at the local scale.

Forest degradation is recognized as a major environmental threat on a global scale. The recent rise in natural and anthropogenic destruction of forested ecosystems highlights the need for developing new, rapid, and accurate remote sensing monitoring systems, which capture forested land transformations. In spite of the great technological advances made in airborne and spaceborne sensors over the past decades, current Earth observation (EO) change detection methods still need to overcome numerous limitations. Optical sensors have been commonly used for detecting land use and land cover changes (LULCC), however, the requirement of certain technical and environmental conditions (e.g., sunlight, not cloud-coverage) restrict their use. More recently, synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-based change detection approaches have been used to overcome these technical limitations, but they commonly rely on static detection approaches (e.g., pre and post disturbance scenario comparison) that are slow to monitor change. In this context, this paper presents a novel approach for mapping forest structural changes in a continuous and near-real-time manner using dense Sentinel-1 image time-series. Our cumulative sum–spatial mean corrected (CUSU-SMC) algorithm approach is based on cumulative sum statistical analysis, which allows the continuous monitoring of radar signal variations, derived from forest structural change. Taking advantage of the high data availability offered by the Sentinel-1 (S-1) C-band constellation, we used an S-1 ground range detected (GRD) dual (VV, VH) polarization timeseries, formed by a total of 84 images, to monitor clear-cutting operations carried out in a Scottish forest during 2019. The analysis showed a user’s accuracy of 82% for the (conservative) detection approach. The use of a post-processing neighbor filter increased the detection performance to a user’s accuracy of 86% with an overall accuracy of 77% for areas of a minimum extent of 0.4 ha. To further validate the detection performance of the method, the CUSU-SMC change detector was tested against commonly-used pairwise change detection approaches for the same period. These results emphasize the capabilities of dense SAR time-series for environmental monitoring and provide a useful tool for optimizing national forest inventories.