Lee-Nam Kwon

Dementia is a cognitive impairment that poses a global threat. Current dementia treatments slow the progression of the disease. The timing of starting such treatment markedly affects the effectiveness of the treatment. Some experts mentioned that the optimal timing for starting the currently available treatment in order to delay progression to dementia is the mild cognitive impairment stage, which is the prior stage of dementia. However, medical records are typically only available at a later stage, i.e., from the early or middle stage of dementia. In order to address this limitation, this study developed a model using national health information data from 5 years prior, to predict dementia development 5 years in the future. The Senior Cohort Database, comprising 550,000 samples, were used for model development. The F-measure of the model predicting dementia development after a 5-year incubation period was 77.38%. Models for a 1- and 3-year incubation period were also developed for comparative analysis of dementia risk factors. The three models had some risk factors in common, but also had unique risk factors, depending on the stage. For the common risk factors, a difference in disease severity was confirmed. These findings indicate that the diagnostic criteria and treatment strategy for dementia should differ depending on the timing. Furthermore, since the results of this study present new dementia risk factors that have not been reported previously, this study may also contribute to identification of new dementia risk factors.

Globally, one of the biggest problems with the increase in the elderly population is dementia. However, dementia still has no fundamental cure. Therefore, it is important to predict and prevent dementia early. For early prediction of dementia, it is crucial to find dementia risk factors that increase a person’s risk of developing dementia. In this paper, the subject of dementia risk factor analysis and discovery studies were limited to gender, because it is assumed that the difference in the prevalence of dementia in men and women will lead to differences in the risk factors for dementia among men and women. This study analyzed the Korean National Health Information System—Senior Cohort using machine-learning techniques. By using the machine-learning technique, it was possible to reveal a very small causal relationship between data that are ignored using existing statistical techniques. By using the senior cohort, it was possible to analyze 6000 data that matched the experimental conditions out of 558,147 sample subjects over 14 years. In order to analyze the difference in dementia risk factors between men and women, three machine-learning-based dementia risk factor analysis models were constructed and compared. As a result of the experiment, it was found that the risk factors for dementia in men and women are different. In addition, not only did the results include most of the known dementia risk factors, previously unknown candidates for dementia risk factors were also identified. We hope that our research will be helpful in finding new dementia risk factors.