Enyu Du

Analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological droughts (MD) and agricultural droughts (AD) and their propagation in different climate zones is important for effective drought management, climate adaptation, and food security. This study takes a unique approach by comparing irrigated and rainfed croplands. A comprehensive framework is developed using drought indices, statistical analysis, trend tests, and wavelet transforms. The spatiotemporal evolution patterns, trends, and correlations of MD and AD in Xinjiang and the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain (MYP) are investigated. The main results showed that severe MD events (e.g., Xinjiang 2005–2009 and MYP 2004–2009) significantly impacted rainfed agricultural systems, leading to a decline in vegetation condition. Long-term irrigation can substantially alleviate AD under MD conditions. From 2000 to 2019, AD on irrigated croplands in Xinjiang continuously improved, while rainfed croplands deteriorated significantly during MD events. In contrast, although overall AD in MYP was mitigated, the benefits of irrigation were only evident during severe AD periods and weakened after 2013. Correlation and wavelet analyses revealed different drought propagation mechanisms between irrigated and rainfed croplands, highlighting the key role of local climate conditions and spatial heterogeneity in determining irrigation efficiency. The findings provide important guidance for optimizing drought management strategies, agricultural planning, and sustainable water resource management.

Drought poses a serious threat to agricultural production and food security in the context of global climate change. Few studies have explored the response mechanism and lag time of agricultural drought to meteorological drought from the perspective of cultivated land types. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and hysteresis relationship of meteorological and agricultural droughts in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Here, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index products and surface temperature products were selected to calculate the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) from 2010 to 2015. Furthermore, we obtained the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the same period. Based on these indices, we analyzed the correlation and the hysteresis relationship between agricultural and meteorological drought in rainfed and irrigated arable land. The results showed that, (1) compared with SPEI, the high spatial resolution PDSI data were deemed more suitable for the subsequent accurate and scientific analysis of the relationship between meteorological and agricultural droughts. (2) When meteorological drought occurs, irrigated arable land is the first to experience agricultural drought, and then alleviates when the drought is most severe in rainfed arable land, indicating that irrigated arable land is more sensitive to drought events when exposed to the same degree of drought risk. However, rainfed arable land is actually more susceptible to agricultural drought due to the intervention of irrigation measures. (3) According to the cross-wavelet transform analysis, agricultural droughts significantly lag behind meteorological droughts by about 33 days during the development process of drought events. (4) The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficient between the PDSI and TVDI shows that the area with negative correlations of rainfed croplands and the area with positive correlations of irrigated croplands account for 77.55% and 68.04% of cropland areas, respectively. This study clarifies and distinguishes the details of the meteorological-to-agricultural drought relationship in rainfed and irrigated arable land, noting that an accurate lag time can provide useful guidance for drought monitoring management and irrigation project planning in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

As drought vulnerability assessment is fundamental to risk management, it is urgent to develop scientific and reasonable assessment models to determine such vulnerability. A vulnerability curve is the key to risk assessment of various disasters, connecting analysis of hazard and risk. To date, the research on vulnerability curves of earthquakes, floods and typhoons is relatively mature. However, there are few studies on the drought vulnerability curve, and its application value needs to be further confirmed and popularized. In this study, on the basis of collecting historical disaster data from 52 drought events in China from 2009 to 2013, three drought remote sensing indexes were selected as disaster-causing factors; the affected population was selected to reflect the overall disaster situation, and five typical regional drought vulnerability curves were constructed. The results showed that (1) in general, according to the statistics of probability distribution, most of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) variance ratios were concentrated between 0 and ~0.15, and most of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) variance ratios were concentrated between 0.15 and ~0.6. From a regional perspective, the NDVI and EVI variance ratio values of the northwest inland perennial arid area (NW), the southwest mountainous area with successive years of drought (SW), and the Hunan Hubei Jiangxi area with sudden change from drought to waterlogging (HJ) regions were close and significantly higher than the TVDI variance ratio values. (2) Most of the losses (drought at-risk populations, DRP) were concentrated in 0~0.3, with a cumulative proportion of about 90.19%. At the significance level, DRP obeys the Weibull distribution through hypothesis testing, and the parameters are optimal. (3) The drought vulnerability curve conformed to the distribution rule of the logistic curve, and the line shape was the growth of the loss rate from 0 to 1. It was found that the arid and ecologically fragile area in the farming pastoral ecotone (AP) region was always a high-risk area with high vulnerability, which should be the focus of drought risk prevention and reduction. The study reduces the difficulty of developing the vulnerability curve, indicating that the method can be widely used to other regions in the future. Furthermore, the research results are of great significance to the accurate drought risk early warning or whether to implement the national drought disaster emergency rescue response.

The role of natural disaster adaptation is increasingly being considered in academic research. The Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goal 13 require measuring the progress made on this adaptation. This review summarizes the development stages of adaptation, the multiple attributes and analysis of adaptation definitions, the models and methods for adaptation analysis, and the research progress of natural disaster adaptation. Adaptation research methods are generally classified into two types: case analysis and mathematical models. The current adaptive research in the field of natural disasters focuses primarily on the response of the social economy, especially the adaptive decision making and risk perception at farm-level scales (farmer households). The evaluation cases of adaptation in the field of disasters exist mostly as a part of vulnerability evaluation. Adaptation and adaptive capacity should focus on four core issues: adaptation to what; who or what adapts; how does adaptation occur; what is adaptation; and how good is the adaptation. The main purpose of the “spatial scale–exposure–vulnerability” three-dimensional scales of adaptation assessment is to explore the differences in index system under different scenarios, the spatial pattern of adaptations, and the geographical explanation of its formation mechanism. The results of this study can help and guide future research on integrating climate change and disaster adaptations especially in regional sustainable development and risk reduction strategies.

Typhoons are a product of air-sea interaction, which are often accompanied by high winds, heavy rains, and storm surges. It is significant to master the characteristics and pattern of typhoon activity for typhoon warning and disaster prevention and mitigation. We used the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) index as the hazard index; the probability of exceeding, or reaching, return period or exceeding a certain threshold was used to describe the probability of hazard occurrence. The results show that the overall spatial distribution of typhoon hazards conforms to a northeast-southwest zonal distribution, decreasing from the southeast coast to the northwest. Across the six typical provinces of China assessed here, data show that Hainan possesses the highest hazard risk. Hazard index is relatively high, mainly distributed between 0.005 and 0.015, while the probability of exceeding a hazard index greater than 0.015 is 0.15. In light of the four risk levels assessed here, the hazard index that accounts for the largest component of the study area is mainly distributed up to 0.0010, all mild hazard levels. Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu as well as six other provinces and autonomous regions are all areas with high hazard risks. The research results can provide important scientific evidence for the sustainable development of China’s coastal provinces and cities. The outcomes of this study may also provide the scientific basis for the future prevention and mitigation of marine disasters as well as the rationalization of related insurance.

A vulnerability curve is an important tool for the rapid assessment of drought losses, and it can provide a scientific basis for drought risk prevention and post-disaster relief. Those populations with difficulty in accessing drinking water because of drought (hereon “drought at risk populations”, abbreviated as DRP) were selected as the target of the analysis, which examined factors contributing to their risk status. Here, after the standardization of disaster data from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 2013, the parameter estimation method was used to determine the probability distribution of drought perturbations data. The results showed that, at the significant level of α = 0.05, the DRP followed the Weibull distribution, whose parameters were optimal. According to the statistical characteristics of the probability density function and cumulative distribution function, the bulk of the standardized DRP is concentrated in the range of 0 to 0.2, with a cumulative probability of about 75%, of which 17% is the cumulative probability from 0.2 to 0.4, and that greater than 0.4 amounts to only 8%. From the perspective of the vulnerability curve, when the variance ratio of the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) is between 0.65 and 0.85, the DRP will increase at a faster rate; when it is greater than 0.85, the growth rate of DRP will be relatively slow, and the disaster losses will stabilize. When the variance ratio of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) is between 0.5 and 0.85, the growth rate of DRP accelerates, but when it is greater than 0.85, the disaster losses tend to stabilize. By comparing the coefficient of determination (R²) values fitted for the vulnerability curve, in the same situation, EVI is more suitable to indicate drought vulnerability than NDVI for estimating the DRP.