Lorenzo Rinaldi

The photovoltaic supply chain is complex and geographically concentrated. Assessing the impacts of policies targeting it requires models that explicitly represent supply-chain structure. While process-based life-cycle assessment truncates economy-wide effects and top-down input–output models are too aggregated to resolve individual manufacturing stages, our study develops a hybrid framework integrating a process-based PV supply chain model into the multi-regional input–output accounting structure of EXIOBASE. The model is first verified against reference literature ranges of solar electricity carbon footprints and producer prices, showing literature-consistent results that purely top-down models miss by omitting productive capital. The framework is applied to the Net Zero Industry Act, a major European Union (EU) reshoring policy, under a scenario where 40% of module demand is supplied domestically. Results show that reshoring mainly affects downstream stages, while upstream production remains largely external, leading to moderate changes in consumption-based emissions and limited gains in EU value-added and employment.

The carbon footprint of electricity is a critical metric for climate policy and corporate sustainability reporting, yet its quantification is hampered by a lack of methodological consensus and a fragmented evidence base. This fragmentation reflects a central debate in industrial ecology regarding the consistency and comparability of life-cycle-based emission factors across different modelling paradigms. This study addresses this gap by performing a systematic, quantitative comparison of electricity emission factors from a wide range of authoritative sources, including process-LCA databases (Ecoinvent), environmentally extended input–output tables (EXIOBASE, EMERGING, EORA, GLORIA, GTAP), primary agency data (IEA), and others. We harmonize technology taxonomies and GHG characterization factors to compare technology-level and national-level emission factors for the EU and the US. Our findings indicate that, for technology-specific emission factors, there is a moderate level of agreement regarding direct operational emissions (direct carbon intensity). However, we observe substantial and systematic variation when it comes to full life-cycle carbon intensity. These discrepancies propagate to national-level estimates, where a country’s calculated carbon intensity can significantly vary, solely based on the data source chosen. This paper provides a useful reference to deconstruct and understand such divergences. We operationalize these findings into a set of practical selection criteria that enable analysts and decision-makers to make transparent and context-appropriate choices. We conclude that a more transparent and critical approach to sourcing emission data is fundamental to the credibility of carbon accounting and the broader energy transition.

This research explores the impact of various electricity sector transition scenarios on economic growth in Indonesia by integrating energy systems and economic modelling. The Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was utilised to optimise long-term electricity generation, capacity expansion, and decarbonisation pathways, while the Multi-functional Analysis of Regions through Input-Output (MARIO) model quantified the effect on gross domestic product (GDP) through shock analysis. Results show that all net-zero scenarios substantially reduce cumulative carbon emissions compared to the baseline scenario through large-scale renewable deployment, particularly solar. The nuclear-inclusive scenarios demonstrate that strategically integrating nuclear power can replace part of solar capacity, reduce total investment costs by 3-8%, and provide reliable baseload electricity. GDP growth in all net-zero scenarios remains below the baseline scenario due to the declining contribution of coal, although nuclear-inclusive scenarios show marginally better economic performance. The findings highlight that a robust domestic supply chain, refined local content policies, and strategic nuclear integration are essential to maximise economic benefits. This research provides a data-driven case, showing that Indonesia’s electricity sector transition represents an investment in a sustainable, competitive, and low-carbon economic future rather than a mere cost to growth.

Habitações populares com baixo desempenho térmico aumentam o consumo de eletricidade para climatização, agravando a vulnerabilidade financeira e social das famílias. Este estudo avalia o impacto da melhoria da eficiência energética em habitações de interesse social no Brasil, reduzindo os valores U das envoltórias (fechamentos externos). Utilizando tabelas de recursos e usos (TRUs), foram analisadas as emissões de CO₂ a nível nacional associadas à substituição de paredes de alvenaria por steel frame, que oferece isolamento térmico quase seis vezes superior. O consumo de energia foi simulado no EnergyPlus para uma residência isolada de 42 m². Os resultados indicam que, embora o sistema de steel frame aumente as emissões de CO₂ em 1,33%, essa elevação é compensada pela redução das emissões de CO2 do setor elétrico em até 5 anos. Em 30 anos, a economia acumulada pode ultrapassar 3,5 milhões de toneladas de CO₂.

The concepts of building and construction are central in the development of national economies all over the world. Along with this growth in national economies, however, there is increasing concern over the high environmental impact caused by the building industry. A growing body of published work provides evidence that buildings globally contribute to 40% of greenhouse gas emissions, 50% of energy and consumption, and 15% of drinking water usage. To date, there is a current lack of studies of evidence-based literature specifically relating to the use of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) extended Multi Region Input-Output (MRIO) approach for building sustainability assessment. This paper describes the design and implementation of a framework to assess the blue and green footprint at building level-based Multifunctional Analysis of Regions through Input-Output (MARIO) tool and Building Information Modeling (BIM) for building system analysis. The study set out to investigate the impact of structural and Mechanical, Electrical, and Plumbing (MEP) systems in a sample building. Finally, the framework was tested in the dwelling sector to assess the growing demand by 2030 in Mexico. Results presented an easy path for sustainable assessment for regions with lack of tools. However, future research must be developed to fill the gap in the blue footprint domain.

As a key material for manufacturing clean energy technologies, steel is crucial for energy transition, but its production causes 2.6 Gton of CO₂ emissions at global level each year. In 2020 the European Union (EU) set a net-zero emissions target by 2050, fostering innovation in the steel industry to reduce its environmental impact. However, a scenario-oriented and technologically comprehensive analysis assessing prospected environmental and market implications of steel decarbonisation strategies remains a gap, which is addressed in this paper. The analysis adopts a hybrid input-output-based life-cycle assessment model built in the MARIO framework, extending the Exiobase database to represent the supply chains of the most promising low-carbon steelmaking technologies in the EU, such as hydrogen- or charcoal-injected blast furnaces and natural gas- and hydrogen-based direct reduction routes. The penetration of these technologies is explored by formulating scenarios resembling European climate targets. The results show a reduction in the carbon footprint of steel across all scenarios, ranging up to −26% in 2030 and to −60% in 2050. However, the extent of footprint reduction is highly dependent on the share of clean electricity in the European supply mix, highlighting the relevance of holistic decarbonisation strategies. Economic implications affect steel prices, which rise up to 25% in 2030 and 56% in 2050, opening discussions on the need for suitable policies such as CBAM to avoid protectionism and encourage international technological progress.