Vuong Minh Nong

Objectives To investigate the serum IL-6 levels and their rate of change in predicting the mortality of critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Vietnam. Design A single-centre, cross-sectional study. Setting An Intensive Care Centre for the Treatment of Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Participants We included patients aged 18 years or older who were critically ill with COVID-19 and presented to the study centre from 30 July 2021 to 15 October 2021. We excluded patients who did not have serum IL-6 measurements between admission and the end of the first day. Primary outcome measures The primary outcome was hospital all-cause mortality. Results Of 90 patients, 41.1% were men, the median age was 60.5 years (Q1–Q3: 52.0–71.0), and 76.7% of patients died in the hospital. Elevated IL-6 levels were observed on admission (41.79 pg/mL; Q1–Q3: 20.68–106.27) and on the third day after admission (72.00 pg/mL; Q1–Q3: 26.98–186.50), along with a significant rate of change in IL-6 during that period (839.5%; SD: 2753.2). While admission IL-6 level (areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC): 0.610 (95% CI: 0.459 to 0.761); cut-off value ≥15.8 pg/mL) and rate of change in IL-6 on the third day of admission (AUROC: 0.586 (95% CI: 0.420 to 0.751); cut-off value ≥−58.7%) demonstrated poor discriminatory ability in predicting hospital mortality, the third day IL-6 rate of change from admission ≥−58.7% (adjusted OR: 12.812; 95% CI: 2.104 to 78.005) emerged as an independent predictor of hospital mortality. Conclusions This study focused on a highly selected cohort of critically ill COVID-19 patients with a high IL-6 level and mortality rate. Despite the poor discriminatory value of admission IL-6 levels, the rate of change in IL-6 proved valuable in predicting mortality. To identify critically ill COVID-19 patients with the highest risk for mortality, monitoring the serial serum IL-6 measurements and observing the rate of change in serum IL-6 levels over time are needed.

The second wave of COVID-19 in Vietnam started in the largest tourist city in the country (Da Nang), initially with nosocomial transmission which spilled over and resulted in widespread community transmission. We discuss the challenges and strategies to prevent a further nationwide outbreak.