Anna Garcia-Teruel

Energy-system scenarios are widely used to relate the developments of the energy supply and the resulting carbon-emission pathways to political measures. To enable scenario analyses that adequately capture the variability of renewable-energy resources, a specialised type of power-sector model (PSM) has been developed since the beginning of this century, which uses input data with hourly resolution at the national or subnational levels. These models focus on techno-economic-system optimisation, which needs to be complemented with expert socioeconomic knowledge in order to prevent solutions that may be socially inacceptable or that oppose political goals. A way to integrate such knowledge into energy-system analysis is to use information from framework scenarios with a suitable geographical and technological focus. We propose a novel methodology to link framework scenarios to a PSM by applying complexity-management methods that enable a flexible choice of base scenarios that are tailored to suit different research questions. We explain the methodology, and we illustrate it in a case study that analyses the influence of the socioeconomic development on the European power-system transition until 2050 by linking the power-sector model, REMix (renewable-energy mix), to regional framework scenarios. The suggested approach proves suitable for this purpose, and it enables a clearer link between the impact of political measures and the power-system development.

This work investigates potential cost reduction trajectories of three emerging offshore renewable energy technologies (floating offshore wind, tidal stream, and wave) with respect to meeting ambitious cost targets set out in the Strategic Energy Technology Implementation Plans (SET-Plans) for Offshore Wind and Ocean Energy. A methodology is presented which calculates target costs for current early-stage devices, starting from the 2030 SET-Plan levelised cost targets. Component-based experience curves have been applied as part of the methodology, characterised through the comparative maturity level of each technology-specific cost centre. The resultant early-stage target costs are then compared with actual costs for current devices to highlight where further cost reduction is still required. It has been found that innovation and development requirements to reach these targets vary greatly between different technologies, based on their current level of technological maturity. Future funding calls and programmes should be designed with these variables in mind to support innovative developments in offshore renewables. The method presented in this paper has been applied to publicly available cost data for emerging renewable technologies and is fully adaptable to calculate the innovation requirements for specific early-stage renewable energy devices.

Current wave energy development initiatives assume that available designs have the potential for success through continuous learning and innovation-based cost reduction. However, this may not be the case, and potential winning technologies may have been overlooked. The scenario creation tool presented in this paper provides a structured method for the earliest stages of design in technology development. The core function of the scenario creation tool is to generate and rank scenarios of potential Wave Energy Converter (WEC) attributes and inform the user on the areas of the parameter space that are most likely to yield commercial success. This techno-economic tool uses a structured innovation approach to identify commercially attractive and technically achievable scenarios, with a scoring system based on their power performance and costs. This is done by leveraging performance and cost data from state-of-the-art wave energy converters and identifying theoretical limits to define thresholds. As a result, a list of scored solutions is obtained depending on resource level, wave energy converter hull shape, size, material, degree of freedom for power extraction, and efficiency. This scenario creation tool can be used to support private and public investors to inform strategy for future funding calls, and technology developers and researchers in identifying new avenues of innovation.

The whole energy system requires renewables that scale and produce reliable, valuable energy at an acceptable cost. The key to increasing the deployment of ocean energy is bringing down development and operating costs. This paper proposes a structured approach to innovation in ocean energy systems that would spur innovation and expand the market for ocean energy. This approach can be used by a wide range of stakeholders—including technology and project developers and investors—when considering creating or improving designs. The Structured Innovation design tool within the DTOceanPlus suite is one of a kind beyond the current state-of-the-art. It enables the adaptation and integration of systematic problem-solving tools based on quality function deployment (QFD), the theory of inventive thinking (TRIZ), and the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) methodologies for the ocean energy sector. In obtaining and assessing innovative concepts, the integration of TRIZ into QFD enables the designers to define the innovation problem, identifies trade-offs in the system, and, with TRIZ as a systematic inventive problem-solving methodology, generates potential design concepts for the contradicting requirements. Additionally, the FMEA is used to assess the technical risks associated with the proposed design concepts. The methodology is demonstrated using high-level functional requirements for a small array of ten tidal turbines to improve the devices layout and power cabling architecture. The Structured Innovation design tool output comprises critical functional requirements with the highest overall impact and the least organisational effort to implement, along with appropriate alternative solutions to conflicting requirements.

Recent studies have focused on optimising wave energy converter (WEC) designs, maximising their power performance and techno‐economic feasibility. Reliability has yet to be fully considered in these formulations, despite its impact on cost and performance. In this study, this gap is addressed by developing a reliability‐based design optimisation framework for WEC hull geometries to explore the trade‐off between power performance and power take‐off (PTO) system damage equivalent loading (DEL). Optimised hull geometries for two sites are considered (from the centre of the North Sea and off the west coast of Norway), and two directions of motions (heave and surge). Results indicate that site characteristics affect the potential power production and DEL for an optimal WEC design. These are also affected by the direction of motion for power extraction, which also significantly changes optimal hull shape characteristics. Optimal surging WEC designs have edges facing oncoming wave directions, while heaving WECs have pointed bottoms, both to streamline movement. Larger, more convex WECs result in greater power production and DEL, while smaller, more concave WECs result in lesser power production and DEL. These findings underline the importance of considering WEC hull geometry in early design processes to optimise cost, power production, and reliability.