Maxim Vasilyevich Chernyaev

The article provides an assessment of strategic interests of Russia and China in the Arctic. The purpose of the study is to analyze the current state of relations between Russia and China in the Arctic, to determine the prospects for further cooperation. The authors believe that this cooperation should be examined systematically, i.e. from three possible perspectives: economics, politics and society. A significant part of the Russian Federation's territory lies above the Arctic Circle, so its interests in the region have a long history. China positions itself as a “subarctic state”, and its interests in the region have become in-creasingly manifested over the last decade. In 2017, the countries announced their intentions to promote the alignment of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative and the EAEU and to link it with the Northern Sea Route project. Factors contributing to the convergence of the two countries’ interests include: the deterioration of Russia’s relations with the collective West, the increasing role of China in Russia’s foreign economy and politics, and the growth of Russian hydrocarbon exports to China. The article provides examples of successful joint Russian-Chinese projects in the Arctic. The authors note that in the field of mineral extraction, successful joint initiatives include a project to drill two exploration wells in the Okhotsk Sea in the Magadan-1 and Lisyanskiy areas. The authors emphasize that there are no large infrastructure projects in the Russian Federation that are financed by Chinese investors, so the country is interested in Chinese investment for the advancement of infrastructure necessary for the development of the Arctic. Currently, cooperation between Russia and China in many areas is at its peak, and it is expected that the two countries will continue to deepen and diversify their interaction. At the same time, cooperation in the Arctic may become a central aspect of this interaction, as it is equally in the interests of both states.

The relevance of the study is due to both the high degree of importance of energy for the economic development of Russia and the insufficient use of econometric models in modern energy research. The purpose of the study is to develop and propose an econometric model of the country’s fuel and energy resources. In line with this objective, the research provides a detailed examination of the methodological framework and key stages involved in developing an econometric model using autoregressive analysis for the purpose of studying the Russian energy sector. This is both the scientific and applied, as well as the scientific and methodological significance of the presented publication. To achieve this goal, statistical materials from Rostat “Consumption of fuel and energy resources per person employed in the country’s economy” have been used since 2012. Econometric analysis and statistics are used as a methodology, in particular, an autoregressive analysis model is used. The methodological advantage of the autoregressive model is its flexibility when working with a wide range of different time series patterns. Data Science methods were used to develop the model in particular, cMLE (conditional maximum likelihood method). The autoregressive model itself is written in the high-level Python language. Pandas, Numpy, Statsmodels, Sklearn.metrics, and Matplotlib libraries and modules were used. The study describes in detail the main stages of building an autoregressive model: data selection, visualization and verification for stationarity, data separation into test and training samples, training of an autoregressive model, RMSE analysis. The data obtained are characterized by the absence of an obvious trend: there have been periods of a decrease in the consumption of fuel and energy resources per person employed in the country’s economy since 2012, as well as periods of an increase in the corresponding consumption in tons of conventional fuel. The study concludes that the autoregressive model is applicable to the analysis of the Russian energy sector. Although the time series of data is limited, the autoregressive model has high predictive characteristics. The “conservatism” of the autoregressive model towards underestimating the forecast values is emphasized. It is indicated that as new energy statistics accumulate, the autoregressive qualities of the model will improve.

Electric power industry is one of the most important sectors of Russian economy that satisfies the needs of the country’s population, companies of various areas of economy in electric and thermal energy and supplies it for the CIS and Non-CIS countries. Due to this, it is significant to study the tools for development of Russian electric energy industry in the current realities, and this is the basis of the article. The purpose of the article is to study the modern tools for development of electric energy industry and work out the recommendations on their improvement. The following aspects are considered as the main tools for development of electric energy industry: interconnection of electric grid resources, carbon neutrality, legislative acts, digital technologies, financial instruments aimed at attracting investment, accumulation systems (portable sources of electricity), electric transport, and green energy. The methodological basis of the research is the analysis of scientific publications and Internet resources, synthesis and generalization of the data acquired. The authors of the study have analyzed the most significant tools that can be used to develop the electric energy industry in the current situation, and worked out the recommendations on improving the effectiveness of their implementation. To provide a full-fledged solution of the tasks set in the article the authors have analyzed the dynamics of the electric energy industry, identified the basic principles of its development, the peculiar features of their implementation, worked out the opportunities and recommendations for their improvement. According to the results of the study it has been suggested to establish a new institute – a specialized international innovation centre of electric energy industry which will ensure attraction of investment, formation of effective cooperation with friendly countries and development of green energy industry. The authors have identified the tools providing for the development of electric energy industry in Russia, worked out recommendations on their improvement, suggested a new institute of financing and development of electric energy industry. The results of the study in hand can be used in the activity of the companies involved in electric energy industry and further research on the topic.

The oil and gas sector is one of the key sectors in the structure of the economy of the Russian Federation, as well as petroleum products industry, and particularly oil lubricants and components for their production. According to official statistics, the share of exports of petroleum products in monetary terms was 29 % in 2021, and in some years the figure was more than 50 %. Because of global events in recent years, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequences of sanction pressure, significant changes have occurred in the global and Russian lubricants markets, which have led to the emergence of turbulence in the markets, and resulted in uncertainty about the further development. The main purpose of this study is to identify the main trends in the development of the lubricants market in Russia in 2023. Within the framework of the study, the concept of “oil lubricants” and the main technological features of their composition and production process are determined. The analysis of the main geopolitical events and changes that occurred in 2022 and their impact on the lubricants market was carried out. In particular, the influence of the latter on the market dynamics of the main raw material component to produce lubricants, as well as its cost both in retrospect and 2023 expectations (taking into account expected consumption volumes in the domestic and foreign markets) was studied. The study gives a brief description of the market segments, as well as analyzes the main brands that were present on the Russian market in 2022 and changes in their composition due to recent events in the industry. Based on the results of investigation, a comprehensive conclusion about the state of Russian lubricants market at the current time and the prospects for its development in 2023 was formulated.

This article aims to compare two risk assessment methods: EBIOS and FSTEC. EBIOS is published by the National Cybersecurity Agency of France (ANSSI), while FSTEC originates from Russia. Both methods are used relatively locally, but prove capable in France and Russia respectively. This article briefly describes those methods and compares them. The following research is subjective, and the author compares those methods based on his personal preferences, since no other such comparisons are known. During the research, both methods are briefly described and compared since both have appropriate pros and cons, while both may perform better in a particular situation. It leads to the conclusion that the application of both such methods can prove effective, and the main goal is to choose the most suitable approach for a particular situation.

The efficiency of domestic and export supplies of natural gas largely determines the sustainable development of the Russian economy and national security. At present, in the context of sanction restrictions and increasing uncertainty in the global energy market, the theoretical and practical aspects of the economic efficiency of investment projects in the gas industry are of fundamental importance and require further development. The article discusses the theoretical foundations of the category “economic efficiency” and methodological approaches to its assessment on the example of investment projects in the gas industry. A comparative analysis of the standard methodology for determining economic efficiency of capital investments and the methodological recommendations for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects in the planned and market economics has been performed based on the criteria specified by the authors. A review of published studies on methods for assessing economic efficiency of investment projects in the oil and gas sector has been performed. It is concluded that to assess the efficiency of investments is proposed to use the discounted cash flow method as the main approach, as well as the alternative methods in the papers of Russian authors. Two large-scale projects of the Russian gas industry have been considered, a review of published studies on the efficiency assessment has been performed with emphasis on the external effects due to implementation of the projects under consideration. According to the study results, the uniqueness of the implementation conditions of each gas transportation project, fundamental importance of the influence of non-economic factors on the project implementation and the need to develop assessment methods for the economic efficiency of investment projects were noted with due regard to the uncertainty and risk impact.