Yuan Guo

The accuracy and timeliness of precipitation inputs have significant impact on flood forecasting. Upstream Minjiang River Basin is characterized by complex terrain and highly variable climatic conditions, posing a significant challenge for runoff forecasting. This study proposes a combined forecasting approach integrating numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with hydrodynamic models to enhance flood process simulation. The most appropriate initial field data for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) exist in time and space resolution. Compared with the measured series, the characteristics of precipitation forecasting are summarized from practical and scientific perspectives. InfoWorks ICM is then used to implement runoff generation calculations and flooding processes. The results indicate that the WRF model effectively simulates the spatial distribution and peak timing of precipitation in the upper Minjiang River. The model systematically underestimates both peak rainfall intensity and cumulative precipitation compared to observations. Initial field data with 0.25° spatial resolution and 3 h temporal intervals demonstrate good performance and the 10–14 h forecast period exhibits superior predictive capability in numerical simulations. Updates to elevation and land use conditions yield increased cumulative rainfall estimates, though simulated peaks remain lower than measured values. The runoff results could indicate peak flow but rely on the precipitation inputs.

With the progression of climate change, the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall have increased in many parts of the world, while the continuous acceleration of urbanization has made cities more vulnerable to floods. In order to effectively estimate and assess the risks brought by flood disasters, this paper proposes a regional flood disaster risk assessment model combining emergy theory and the cloud model. The emergy theory can measure many kinds of hazardous factor and convert them into unified solar emergy (sej) for quantification. The cloud model can transform the uncertainty in flood risk assessment into certainty in an appropriate way, making the urban flood risk assessment more accurate and effective. In this study, the flood risk assessment model combines the advantages of the two research methods to establish a natural and social dual flood risk assessment system. Based on this, the risk assessment system of the flood hazard cloud model is established. This model was used in a flood disaster risk assessment, and the risk level was divided into five levels: very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk. Flood hazard risk results were obtained by using the entropy weight method and fuzzy transformation method. As an example for the application of this model, this paper focuses on the Anyang region which has a typical continental monsoon climate. The results show that the Anyang region has a serious flood disaster threat. Within this region, Linzhou County and Anyang County have very high levels of risk for flood disaster, while Hua County, Neihuang County, Wenfeng District and Beiguan District have high levels of risk for flood disaster. These areas are the core urban areas and the economic center of local administrative regions, with 70% of the industrial clusters being situated in these regions. Only with the coordinated development of regional flood control planning, economy, and population, and reductions in the uncertainty of existing flood control and drainage facilities can the sustainable, healthy and stable development of the region be maintained.

Extreme rainfall is the main influencing factor of urban waterlogging. Different types of rainfall often have different characteristics of waterlogging. In order to establish a more accurate urban flood control system, it is necessary to classify waterlogging rainstorms and divide their thresholds. This study proposes a method for applying web crawlers to identify waterlogging rainfall in cities lacking waterlogging observation data and classifying them using the rainfall intensity–duration curves. By selecting appropriate duration thresholds and return period, waterlogging rainstorms are divided into rainfall intensity waterlogging (IW), rainfall amount of waterlogging (AW), combined waterlogging (CW) and no waterlogging (NW). In the application of Zhengzhou City, China, the urban flood control standard and the rainfall time distribution characteristics are used as the basis for the selection of the return period and duration thresholds, and the storm water management model (SWMM) is constructed to simulate the 4 kinds of rainfall characteristics of waterlogging, which is similar to actual situations. It proves that the method is suitable for the classification and thresholds division of different waterlogging rainfall in cities. The results show that the best duration thresholds in Zhengzhou are 20 min (M₂₀) and 60 min (M₆₀), and the best return period standard is 2 a. The thresholds for the 4 types of waterlogging rainstorm are: M₂₀ ≥ 26.47 mm, M₆₀ ≥ 43.80 mm, CW; M₂₀ ≥ 26.47 mm, M₆₀ < 43.80 mm, IW; M₂₀ < 26.47 mm, M₆₀ ≥ 43.80 mm, AW; M₂₀ < 26.47 mm and M₆₀ < 43.80 mm, No waterlogging.