Huamin Zhang

How to distinguish the relative role of climate change and human activities in vegetation dynamics has attracted increasing attention. However, most of the current studies concentrate on arid and semiarid regions, while the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation changes remain unclear in warm-humid regions. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, radiation) during 2001–2020, this study used the Theil–Sen median trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and residual trend analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation trends, the response of vegetation to climate variations, and the climatic and anthropogenic contributions to vegetation dynamics in the warm and humid Guangdong Province of south China. Results showed that the NDVI in most areas exhibited an increasing trend. Changes in climatic variables displayed different spatial variations which, however, were not significant in most areas. Vegetation responded diversely to climate change with temperature as the most important climatic factor for vegetation improvement in most areas, while precipitation was the dominant climatic factor in the southern edge region and radiation was the dominant climatic factor in the central and western regions. Vegetation in most areas was influenced by both climate change and human activities, but the contribution rate of human activities was commonly much higher than climate change. The findings of this study are expected to enhance our understanding of the relative climatic and anthropogenic contributions to vegetation changes in warm-humid regions and provide a scientific basis for future ecological policies and ecosystem management in highly urbanized regions.

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is a global center of cold and dry, where the most extensive fragile alpine vegetation exists. Quantitative analysis of drought event characteristics and vegetation response to drought on the QTP is indispensable for understanding the increasing drought events in a warming climate which exacerbate adverse influence on extremely alpine ecosystems. Here, using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 2000 to 2018, this study analyzed the characteristics of drought events, their temporal impacts, and the stability of vegetation response to drought on the QTP. Results showed that: the characteristics of drought events on the QTP have clear spatial heterogeneity. When compared to the east monsoon region, most of the western regions have higher frequency and lower intensity of drought events. Drought has significant temporal effects on vegetation in grassland areas of the QTP during the growing season, which reach their peak in July and August. The 0–1-month and 3-month time scales were the optimal lagged and accumulated time during the growing season, respectively. The stability of vegetation response to drought showed significant spatial heterogeneity and varied with eco-geographical regions and vegetation types. Generally, forest areas showed high resistance (74.09) and resilience (2.26), followed by crop and grassland areas.

Detection of long-term vegetation dynamics is important for identifying vegetation improvement and degradation, especially for rapidly urbanizing regions with intensive land cover conversions. The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) urban agglomeration has experienced rapid urbanization during the past decades with profound impacts on vegetation, so there is an urgent need to evaluate vegetation dynamics across land use/cover change (LUCC). Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 2001–2020, we used coefficient of variation, Theil–Sen median trend analysis, and Hurst exponent to analyze the spatiotemporal change and future consistency of vegetation growth among the main LUCC in the GBA. Results demonstrated that low NDVI values with high fluctuations were mainly distributed in the central urban areas, whereas high NDVI values with low fluctuations were primarily located in the peripheral hilly mountains. The area-averaged NDVI showed an overall increasing trend at a rate of 0.0030 year⁻¹, and areas with vegetation improvement (82.99%) were more than four times those with vegetation degradation (17.01%). The persistent forest and grassland and the regions converted from built-up to vegetation displayed the most obvious greening; NDVI in over 90% of these areas showed an increasing trend. In contrast, vegetation browning occurred in more than 60% of the regions converted from vegetation to built-up. Future vegetation change in most areas (91.37%) will continue the existing trends, and 80.06% of the GBA was predicted to develop in a benign direction, compared to 19.94% in a malignant direction. Our results contribute to in-depth understanding of vegetation dynamics during rapid urbanization in the GBA, which is crucial for vegetation conservation and land-use optimization.

The Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) National Nature Preserve (QNNP) is among the highest natural reserves in the world. Monitoring the spatiotemporal changes in the vegetation in this complex vertical ecosystem can provide references for decision makers to formulate and adapt strategies. Vegetation growth in the reserve and the factors driving it remains unclear, especially in the last decade. This study uses the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in a linear regression model and the Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST) algorithm to detect the spatiotemporal patterns of the variations in vegetation in the reserve since 2000. To identify the factors driving the variations in the NDVI, the partial correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression were used to quantify the impact of climatic factors, and the effects of time lag and time accumulation were also considered. We then calculated the NDVI variations in different zones of the reserve to examine the impact of conservation on the vegetation. The results show that in the past 19 years, the NDVI in the QNNP has exhibited a greening trend (slope = 0.0008/yr, p < 0.05), where the points reflecting the transition from browning to greening (17.61%) had a much higher ratio than those reflecting the transition from greening to browning (1.72%). Shift points were detected in 2010, following which the NDVI tendencies of all the vegetation types and the entire preserve increased. Considering the effects of time lag and time accumulation, climatic factors can explain 44.04% of the variation in vegetation. No climatic variable recorded a change around 2010. Considering the human impact, we found that vegetation in the core zone and the buffer zone had generally grown better than the vegetation in the test zone in terms of the tendency of growth, the rate of change, and the proportions of different types of variations and shifts. A policy-induced reduction in livestock after 2010 might explain the changes in vegetation in the QNNP.

Advanced developments have been achieved in urban human population estimation, however, there is still a considerable research gap for the mapping of remote rural populations. In this study, based on demographic data at the town-level, multi-temporal high-resolution remote sensing data, and local population-sensitive point-of-interest (POI) data, we tailored a random forest-based dasymetric approach to map population distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) for 2000, 2010, and 2016 with a spatial resolution of 1000 m. We then analyzed the temporal and spatial change of this distribution. The results showed that the QTP has a sparse population distribution overall; in large areas of the northern QTP, the population density is zero, accounting for about 14% of the total area of the QTP. About half of the QTP showed a rapid increase in population density between 2000 and 2016, mainly located in the eastern and southern parts of Qinghai Province and the central-eastern parts of the Tibet Autonomous Region. Regarding the relative importance of variables in explaining population density, the variables “Distance to Temples” is the most important, followed by “Density of Villages” and “Elevation”. Furthermore, our new products exhibited higher accuracy compared with five recently released gridded population density datasets, namely WorldPop, Gridded Population of the World version 4, and three national gridded population datasets for China. Both the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for our products were about half of those of the compared products except for WorldPop. This study provides a reference for using fine-scale demographic count and local population-sensitive POIs to model changing population distribution in remote rural areas.