Birhanu Asmerom Habtemicheal

Wind power plays a vital role in the electricity generation of many countries, including Ethiopia. It serves as a valuable complement to hydropower during the dry season, and its affordability is crucial for the growth of industrial centers. However, accurately estimating wind energy poses significant challenges due to its random nature, severe variability, and dependence on wind speed. Numerous techniques have been employed to tackle this problem, and recent research has shown that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models excel in prediction accuracy. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of different ANN network types in estimating the monthly average daily wind power at Adama Wind Farm I. The collected data was divided into three sets: training (70%), testing (15%), and validation (15%). Four network types, namely Feedforward Backpropagation (FFBP), Cascade Feedforward Backpropagation (CFBP), Error Backpropagation (EBP), and Levenberg–Marquardt (LR), were utilized with seven input parameters for prediction. The performance of these networks was evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and R-squared (R²). The EBP network type demonstrated exceptional performance in estimating wind power for all wind turbines in Groups GI, GII, and GIII. Additionally, all proposed network types achieved impressive accuracy levels with MAPE ranging from 0.0119 to 0.0489 and R² values ranging from 0.982 to 0.9989. These results highlight the high predictive accuracy attained at the study site. Consequently, we can conclude that the ANN model’s network types were highly effective in predicting the monthly averaged daily wind power at Adama Wind Farm I. By leveraging the power of ANN models, this research contributes to improving wind energy estimation, thereby enabling more reliable and efficient utilization of wind resources. The findings of this study have practical implications for the wind energy industry and can guide decision-making processes regarding wind power generation and integration into the energy mix.

This study investigated the actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) seasonality, trends, abrupt changes, and driving mechanisms with global sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation patterns over Equatorial Africa (EQA) during 1980–2020. The spatiotemporal characteristics of mean ET were computed based on a 40-year average at annual and seasonal scales. The Mann-Kendall statistical test, the Sen slope test, and the Bayesian test were used to analyze trends and detect abrupt changes. The results showed that the mean annual PET (AET) for 1980–2020 was 110 (70) mm. Seasonal mean PET (AET) values were 112 (72) in summer, 110 (85) in autumn, 109 (84) in winter, and 110 (58) in spring. The MK test showed an increasing (decreasing) rate, and the Sen slope identified upward (downward) at a rate of 0.35 (0.05) mm yr⁻¹⁰. The PET and AET abrupt change points were observed to happen in 1995 and 2000. Both dry and wet regions showed observed weak (strong) correlation coefficient values of 0.3 (0.8) between PET/AET and climate factors, but significant spatiotemporal differences existed. Generally, air temperature, soil moisture, and relative humidity best explain ET dynamics rather than precipitation and wind speed. The regional atmospheric circulation patterns are directly linked to ET but vary significantly in space and time. From a policy perspective, these findings may have implications for future water resource management.

Surface soil moisture (SSM) plays an essential role in the Earth’s water cycle and land surface processes as well as in vegetative growth, ecological health, and ecosystem properties. Particularly, information on this parameter’s spatiotemporal variability at the Tibetan Plateau is of key importance to the study of climate and the impact of climate change due to it is distinctive characteristics in this area. The present study assesses the operational SSM products provided by the SMAP (Soil Moisture Active and Passive) satellite at the Tibetan Plateau, Naqu observational station, China. In particular, the globally distributed Level 3 operational products, SPL3SMP_36km and the Enhanced Passive SSM Product SPL3SMP_9km, are evaluated in two-phases. SSM and the surface temperature estimates by SPL3SMP_36km and SPL3SMP_9km are compared against corresponding ground data available at the Naqu observation network. All in all, the examined products captured the SSM dynamics in the studied area. The results showed that precipitation is the key driving source of SSM variability. SSM fluctuated significantly and was dependent on precipitation in the studied region. Statistical metrics, such as the root mean square error (RMSE), varied for SPL3SMP_36km and SPL3SMP_9km in the ranges of 0.036–0.083 m³/m³ and 0.074–0.097 m³/m³, respectively. The unbiased RMSE (ubRMSE) was higher than the SMAP uncertainty limit (0.04 m³/m³) in most cases. This study establishes some of the causes for the different performances of SMAP products, mainly, the ancillary input dataset parameterizations, and, specifically, the surface temperature parameterization schemes of SMAP retrieval algorithm is analyzed and discussed. Our research findings highlight, among others, the usefulness of those SSM products from SMAP, particularly in mesoscale studies, providing additional useful insights into the use of those products in practice in China and globally.

This study investigated the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate seven different heavy precipitation (PRE) events that occurred across East Africa in the summer of 2020. The WRF model outputs were evaluated against high-resolution satellite-based observations, which were obtained from prior evaluations of several satellite observations with 30 stations’ data. The synoptic conditions accompanying the events were also investigated to determine the conditions that are conducive to heavy PRE. The verification of the WRF output was carried out using the area-related root mean square error (RMSE)-based fuzzy method. This method quantifies the similarity of PRE intensity distribution between forecast and observation at different spatial scales. The results showed that the WRF model reproduced the heavy PRE with PRE magnitudes ranging from 6 to >30 mm/day. The spatial pattern from the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) was close to that of the WRF output. The area-related RMSE with respect to observation showed that the error in the model tended to reduce as the spatial scale increased for all the events. The WRF and high-resolution satellite data had an obvious advantage when validating the heavy PRE events in 2020. This study demonstrated that WRF may be used for forecasting heavy PRE events over East Africa when high resolutions and subsequent simulation setups are used.

Drought is an intricate atmospheric phenomenon with the greatest impacts on food security and agriculture in South Asia. Timely and appropriate forecasting of drought is vital in reducing its negative impacts. This study intended to explore the performance of the evaporative stress index (ESI), vegetation health index (VHI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and standardized anomaly index (SAI) based on satellite remote sensing data from 2002–2019 for agricultural drought assessment in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. The spatial maps were generated against each index, which indicated a severe agricultural drought during the year 2002, compared to the other years. The results showed that the southeast region of Pakistan, and the north, northwest, and southwest regions of India and Afghanistan were significantly affected by drought. However, Bangladesh faced substantial drought in the northeast and northwest regions during the drought year (2002). The longest drought period of seven months was observed in India followed by Pakistan and Afghanistan with six months, while, only three months were perceived in Bangladesh. The correlation between drought indices and climate variables such as soil moisture has remained a significant drought-initiating variable. Furthermore, this study confirmed that the evaporative stress index (ESI) is a good agricultural drought indicator, being quick and with greater sensitivity, and thus advantageous compared to the VHI, EVI, and SAI vegetation indices.

The chemical composition dataset of Aerosol Reanalysis of NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, version 2 (MERRAero) has not been thoroughly evaluated with observation data in mainland China due to the lack of long-term chemical components data. Using the 5-year data of PM₁₀ mass concentrations and chemical compositions obtained from the routine sampling measurements at the World Meteorological Organization the Global Atmosphere Watch Programme regional background stations, Jing Sha (JS) and Lin’An (LA), in central and eastern China, we comprehensively evaluate the surface PM₁₀ concentrations and chemical compositions such as sulfate (SO₄²⁻), organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) derived from MERRAero. Overall, the concentrations of PM₁₀, SO₄²⁻, OC and BC from the MERRAero agreed well with the measurements, despite a slight and consistent overestimation of BC concentrations and a moderate and persistent underestimation of PM₁₀ concentrations throughout the study period. The MERRAero reanalysis of aerosol compositions performs better during the summertime than wintertime. By considering the nitrate particles in PM₁₀ reconstruction, MERRAero performance can be significantly improved. The unreasonable seasonal variations of PM₁₀ chemical compositions at station LA by MERRAero could be causative factors for the larger MERRAero discrepancies during 2016–2017 than the period of 2011–2013.

This study investigates spatiotemporal changes in air pollution (particulate as well as gases) during the COVID-19 lockdown period over major cities of Bangladesh. The study investigated the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Terra and Aqua satellites, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), and NO₂ and O₃ from TROPOMI-5P, from March to June 2019–2020. Additionally, aerosol subtypes from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder (CALIPSO) were used to explore the aerosol types. The strict lockdown (26 March–30 May 2020) led to a significant reduction in AOD (up to 47%) in all major cities, while the partial lockdown (June 2020) led to increased and decreased AOD over the study area. Significant reductions in PM_2.5 (37–77%) and PM₁₀ (33–70%) were also observed throughout the country during the strict lockdown and partial lockdown. The NO₂ levels decreased by 3–25% in March 2020 in the cities of Rajshahi, Chattogram, Sylhet, Khulna, Barisal, and Mymensingh, in April by 3–43% in Dhaka, Chattogram, Khulna, Barisal, Bhola, and Mymensingh, and May by 12–42% in Rajshahi, Sylhet, Mymensingh, and Rangpur. During the partial lockdown in June, NO₂ decreased (9–35%) in Dhaka, Chattogram, Sylhet, Khulna, Barisal, and Rangpur compared to 2019. On the other hand, increases were observed in ozone (O₃₎ levels, with an average increase of 3–12% throughout the country during the strict lockdown and only a slight reduction of 1–3% in O₃ during the partial lockdown. In terms of aerosol types, CALIPSO observed high levels of polluted dust followed by dust, smoke, polluted continental, and clean marine-type aerosols over the country in 2019, but all types were decreased during the lockdown. The study concludes that the strict lockdown measures were able to significantly improve air quality conditions over Bangladesh due to the shutdown of industries, vehicles, and movement of people.