Syed Abu Shoaib

Climate change poses a challenge to the security and long-term viability of the global food supply chain. Climate unpredictability and extreme weather events have significant impacts on Saudi Arabia’s vulnerable food system, which is already under stress. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia faces distinct challenges in comparison to other dry locations across the world. Here, the per capita water demand is high, the population is growing, the water resources are extremely limited, and there is little information on the existing groundwater supplies. Consequently, it is anticipated that there will be formidable obstacles in the future. In order to make data-driven decisions, policymakers should be aware of causal links. The complex concerns pertaining to the Saudi Arabian food system were analyzed and rationally explained in the current study. A causality analysis examined different driving factors, including temperature, greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, population, and gross domestic product (GDP) that cause vulnerabilities in the country’s food system. The results of the long-run causality test show that GDP has a positive causal relationship with the demand for food, which implies that the demand for food will increase in the long run with an increase in GDP. The result also shows that Saudi Arabia’s GDP and population growth are contributing to the increase in their total GHG emissions. Although the Kingdom has made some efforts to combat climate change, there are still plenty of opportunities for it to implement some of the greatest strategies to guarantee the nation’s food security. This study also highlights the development of appropriate policy approaches to diversify its import sources to ensure future food security.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been experiencing consistent growth in industrial processes and product use (IPPU). The IPPU’s emission has been following an increasing trend. This study investigated time-series and cross-sectional analyses of the IPPU sector. Petrochemical, iron and steel, and cement production are the leading source categories in the Kingdom. In recent years, aluminum, zinc, and titanium dioxide production industries were established. During the last ten years, a significant growth was observed in steel, ethylene, direct reduce iron (DRI), and cement production. The growth of this sector depends on many factors, including domestic and international demand, socioeconomic conditions, and the availability of feedstock. The emissions from IPPU without considering energy use was 78 million tons of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂eq) in 2020, and the cement industry was the highest emitter (35.5%), followed by petrochemical (32.3%) and iron and steel industries (16.8%). A scenario-based projection analysis was performed to estimate the range of emissions for the years up to 2050. The results show that the total emissions could reach between 199 and 426 million tons of CO₂eq in 2050. The Kingdom has started initiatives that mainly focus on climate change adaptation and economic divergence with mitigation co-benefits. In general, the focus of such initiatives is the energy sector. However, the timely accomplishment of the Saudi Vision 2030 and Saudi Green Initiative will affect mitigation scenarios significantly, including in the IPPU sector. The mitigation opportunities for this sector include (i) energy efficiency, (ii) emissions efficiency, (iii) material efficiency, (iv) the re-use of materials and recycling of products, (v) intensive and longer use of products, and (vi) demand management. The results of this study will support the Kingdom in developing an appropriate climate change mitigation roadmap.

The future of the world is becoming more uncertain owing to climate change. The unfolding impacts of climate change are affecting human societies and natural ecosystems. Projections of climate change impacts are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, climate models, and associated processes. Climate models are essential for predicting flow and flood peaks, necessitating proper means of quantification and re-use to help refine the predictions made. This study presents an innovative new framework to quantify flood damage assessment as the climate changes. To integrate uncertainty in modelling catchment behaviour, the Quantile Flow Deviation (QFD) metric was used to attribute different sources of uncertainty, including those from variations in climate from point measurements and from extrapolation to flood peaks from the limited observed flows that are available. The square root of error variance (SREV) calculated from global climate model (GCM) precipitation outputs was used to quantify climate change uncertainty, thereby enabling the estimation of the uncertainty in modelled streamflow to allow the extent of change in flood damage to be assessed. Using data from the Leaf River catchment in the USA, this study presents the increase in flood damage uncertainty resulting from explicit consideration of uncertainty as well as the change in the climate as a function of global temperature rise.

Considering hydro-climatic diversity, integrating dynamic dimensions of water security modeling is vital for ensuring environmental sustainability and its associated full range of climate resilience. Improving climate resiliency depends on the attributing uncertainty mechanism. In this study, a conceptual resilience model is presented with the consideration of input uncertainty. The impact of input uncertainty is analyzed through a multi-model hydrological framework. A multi-model hydrological framework is attributed to a possible scenario to help apply it in a decision-making process. This study attributes water security modeling with the considerations of sustainability and climate resilience using a high-speed computer and Internet system. Then, a subsequent key point of this investigation is accounting for water security modeling to ensure food security and model development scenarios. In this context, a four-dimensional dynamic space that maps sources, resource availability, infrastructure, and vibrant economic options is essential in ensuring a climate-resilient sustainable domain. This information can be disseminated to farmers using a central decision support system to ensure sustainable food production with the application of a digital system.

The continuous growth in population, urbanization, and industrial development has been increasing the generation of solid waste (SW) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Consequently, the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is also following an increasing trend. The collection and use of greenhouse gases emitted from solid waste management practices are still limited. A causality analysis examined the driving factors of the emissions from solid waste management. The methane (CH₄) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) increased with an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and urban population, and an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and literacy rate was likely to reduce CH₄ emissions from municipal solid waste and vice versa. The CH₄ emission generated from industrial solid wastes was found to be positively related to GDP per capita, urban population, and FDI inflows. However, a decrease in the unemployment rate was likely to increase CH₄ emissions from industrial solid wastes. The future greenhouse gas emissions were projected under different possible socio-economic conditions. The scenario analysis based on different variations of population and GDP growth revealed that methane emission from total waste would increase at an average annual rate of 5.13% between 2020 and 2050, and is projected to reach about 4000 Gg by the end of the year 2050. Although the Kingdom has been taking some initiatives towards climate change mitigation, it has significant opportunities to adopt some of the best practices in solid waste management including reduction, recycling, composting and waste-to-energy, and carbon capture and utilization. This study also put emphasis on developing appropriate policy approaches for climate change mitigation based on the circular economy which is gaining momentum in the Kingdom.

Food security is considered as the most important global challenge. Therefore, identifying long-term drivers of food security and their connections is essential to steer policymakers determining policies for future food security and sustainable development. Given the complexity and uncertainty of multidimensional food security, quantifying the extent of uncertainty is vital. In this study, we investigated the uncertainty of a coupled hydrologic food security model to examine the impacts of climatic warming on food production (rice, cereal and wheat) in a mild temperature study site in China. In addition to varying temperature, our study also investigated the impacts of three CO₂ emission scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5—on food production. Our ultimate objective was to quantify the uncertainty in a coupled hydrologic food security model and report the sources and timing of uncertainty under a warming climate using a coupled hydrologic food security model tested against observed food production years. Our study shows an overall increasing trend in rice, cereal and wheat production under a warming climate. Crop yield data from China are used to demonstrate the extent of uncertainty in food security modeling. An innovative and systemic approach is developed to quantify the uncertainty in food security modeling. Crop yield variability with the rising trend of temperature also demonstrates a new insight in quantifying uncertainty in food security modeling.