Sahidul Islam

Forests are vital for life on Earth but are threatened by forest fires, which have significant impacts on climate change both locally and globally. This study examines a forest fire that lasted from 15 to 26 February 2019 in Karnataka, India, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to analyze the effects and atmospheric spread of fire-emitted aerosols. Model simulations are analyzed to understand the horizontal and vertical transport and radiative effects of the fire. The results show high aerosol levels and smoke particles reaching up to 3.5 km altitude and above. The fire raised near-surface air temperatures by ~1–1.5 °C. The net atmospheric forcing due to the fire over the affected area ranged from approximately 10 to 14 W/m², resulting in heating rates between about 0.002 and 0.005 K/day in the impacted region.

In the present research, the open-source WRF-SFIRE model has been used to carry out surface forest fire spread forecasting in the North Sikkim region of the Indian Himalayas. Global forecast system (GFS)-based hourly forecasted weather model data obtained through the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) at 0.25 degree resolution were used to provide the initial conditions for running WRF-SFIRE. A landuse–landcover map at 1:10,000 scale was used to define fuel parameters for different vegetation types. The fuel parameters, i.e., fuel depth and fuel load, were collected from 23 sample plots (0.1 ha each) laid down in the study area. Samples of different categories of forest fuels were measured for their wet and dry weights to obtain the fuel load. The vegetation specific surface area-to-volume ratio was referenced from the literature. The atmospheric data were downscaled using nested domains in the WRF model to capture fire–atmosphere interactions at a finer resolution (40 m). VIIRS satellite sensor-based fire alert (375 m spatial resolution) was used as ignition initiation point for the fire spread forecasting, whereas the forecasted hourly weather data (time synchronized with the fire alert) were used for dynamic forest-fire spread forecasting. The forecasted burnt area (1.72 km²) was validated against the satellite-based burnt area (1.07 km²) obtained through Sentinel 2 satellite data. The shapes of the original and forecasted burnt areas matched well. Based on the various simulation studies conducted, an operational fire spread forecasting system, i.e., Sikkim Wildfire Forecasting and Monitoring System (SWFMS), has been developed to facilitate firefighting agencies to issue early warnings and carry out strategic firefighting.