Kentaro Hattori

We review observations of solar activity, geomagnetic variation, and auroral visibility for the extreme geomagnetic storm on 1872 February 4. The extreme storm (referred to here as the Chapman–Silverman storm) apparently originated from a complex active region of moderate area (≈ 500 μsh) that was favorably situated near disk center (S19° E05°). There is circumstantial evidence for an eruption from this region at 9–10 UT on 1872 February 3, based on the location, complexity, and evolution of the region, and on reports of prominence activations, which yields a plausible transit time of ≈29 hr to Earth. Magnetograms show that the storm began with a sudden commencement at ≈14:27 UT and allow a minimum Dst estimate of ≤ −834 nT. Overhead aurorae were credibly reported at Jacobabad (British India) and Shanghai (China), both at 19.°9 in magnetic latitude (MLAT) and 24.°2 in invariant latitude (ILAT). Auroral visibility was reported from 13 locations with MLAT below ∣20∣° for the 1872 storm (ranging from ∣10.°0∣–∣19.°9∣ MLAT) versus one each for the 1859 storm (∣17.°3∣ MLAT) and the 1921 storm (∣16.°2∣ MLAT). The auroral extension and conservative storm intensity indicate a magnetic storm of comparable strength to the extreme storms of 1859 September (25.°1 ± 0.°5 ILAT and −949 ± 31 nT) and 1921 May (27.°1 ILAT and −907 ± 132 nT), which places the 1872 storm among the three largest magnetic storms yet observed.

The northern part of the Japan Sea is a seismically active region where several large earthquakes were recorded in the past. Some of the earthquakes were accompanied by tsunamis. However, there is insufficient information on them. In this study, we aimed to examine a sea surface abnormality that occurred in 1415, as described in the Chosŏn Wangjo Sillok (“The Chronology of the Li Dynasty of Korea”). This sea surface abnormality was widely observed along the east coast of the Korean Peninsula, and seawater run-up and withdrawal occurred several times. Volcanic eruptions or earthquakes can be considered the cause of this sea surface abnormality, with the possibility of heavy rain or wind.

We use 47 gravitational wave sources from the Third LIGO–Virgo–Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC–3) to estimate the Hubble parameter H(z), including its current value, the Hubble constant H ₀. Each gravitational wave (GW) signal provides the luminosity distance to the source, and we estimate the corresponding redshift using two methods: the redshifted masses and a galaxy catalog. Using the binary black hole (BBH) redshifted masses, we simultaneously infer the source mass distribution and H(z). The source mass distribution displays a peak around 34 M _⊙, followed by a drop-off. Assuming this mass scale does not evolve with the redshift results in a H(z) measurement, yielding H 0 = 68 − 8 + 12 km s − 1 Mpc − 1 (68% credible interval) when combined with the H ₀ measurement from GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart. This represents an improvement of 17% with respect to the H ₀ estimate from GWTC–1. The second method associates each GW event with its probable host galaxy in the catalog GLADE+, statistically marginalizing over the redshifts of each event’s potential hosts. Assuming a fixed BBH population, we estimate a value of H 0 = 68 − 6 + 8 km s − 1 Mpc − 1 with the galaxy catalog method, an improvement of 42% with respect to our GWTC–1 result and 20% with respect to recent H ₀ studies using GWTC–2 events. However, we show that this result is strongly impacted by assumptions about the BBH source mass distribution; the only event which is not strongly impacted by such assumptions (and is thus informative about H ₀) is the well-localized event GW190814.

Solar activity generally exhibits cyclic behavior in terms of sunspot group number and sunspot positions every ≈11 yr. These sunspot data have therefore played key roles in numerous analyses of solar–terrestrial physics. However, their reconstructions prior to the 1830s have remained controversial and included significant data gaps, especially from the 1720s to the 1740s. Therefore, this study reviewed contemporary sunspot observations for 1727–1748 to add several forgotten records by Van Coesfelt in 1728–1729, Dûclos in 1736, Martin in 1737, and Cassini and Maraldi in 1748. On the basis of these records, this study revised the sunspot group number and newly derived the sunspot positions in this interval. The results show clearer solar cycles in sunspot group number than those of previous studies and indicate regular solar cycles with limited hemispheric asymmetry over Solar Cycles 0 to −2. The sunspot positions also show sunspot groups mostly at heliographic latitude φ fulfilling ∣φ∣ < 35° in both solar hemispheres, with slight equatorward motions. Furthermore, the solar minima between Solar Cycles −2 and −1 and between Solar Cycles −1 and 0 have been located around 1733.5 ± 0.5 and 1743 ± 0.5, indicating cycle lengths of 11.7 ± 0.5 yr and 10.0 ± 1.0 yr, respectively. Our results provide a chronological missing link between the Maunder Minimum and the regular solar cycles observed since Staudach’s observations from 1749 onward. This lets us better understand the transition of solar activity from the grand minimum to the regular solar cycles.

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC–2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: a generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate.

The solar activity has been significantly weakened during the Maunder Minimum (MM: 1645–1715), whereas it has been somewhat controversial to reconstruct the actual solar-activity magnitude and the space weather activity in this interval. Here, the East Asian records provide unique references for the low-latitude aurorae in the MM, particularly with the (quasi-)simultaneous candidate auroral accounts in March 1653 and September 1672. These cases have formed unique cases for the intense space weather events and solar-terrestrial interactions in the MM. In particular, the former has been regarded as “virtually incontrovertible evidence” for an intense geomagnetic storm in the Maunder Minimum, despite significant suppression of the solar activity therein. Thus, this record has attracted scientific interpretations on the physical mechanism. However, our philological analyses have traced these source records further back to their original sources and have detected chronological problems in the Japanese source documents. For the 1653 March event, we have identified that the Japanese record retrospectively referred to a hearsay report between 31 December 1652 and 28 January 1653, instead of one on 2 March 1653. Our modification has been verified in two additional contemporary records. In addition, we have further analysed the candidate auroral report of 21 September 1672, which has been subjected to the doubts on the chronological errors. Herein, we have consulted contemporary records and reinforced the revised date of 7 September 1635. Our philological study has cast serious caveats on the reliability of the (quasi-)simultaneous East Asian records for candidate aurorae during the Maunder Minimum, emphasised the importance of philological studies on the auroral records, and highlighted that further discussions are required on the solar–terrestrial environment in the grand solar minima.

In late 1940 March, at least five significant solar flares were reported. They likely launched interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), and were associated with one of the largest storm sudden commencements (SSCs) since 1868, resulting in space weather hazards that would have significant societal impacts should it occur today. The initial solar activity is associated with a solar proton event. Afterwards, another flare was reported in the eastern solar quadrant (N12 E37-38) at 11:30–12:30 ut on March 23, with significant magnetic crochets (up to ≈ |80| nT at Eskdalemuir) during 11:07–11:40 ut. On their basis, we conservatively estimate the required energy flux of the source solar flare as X35 ± 1 in soft X-ray class. The resultant ICMEs caused enormous SSCs (up to >425 nT recorded at Tucson) and allowed us to estimate an extremely inward magnetopause position (estimated magnetopause stand-off position ≈3.4 R_E). The time series of the resultant geomagnetic storm is reconstructed using a Dst estimate, which peaked at 20 ut on March 24 at ≈ −389 nT. Around the storm main phase, the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval extended ≤46.3° in invariant latitudes. This sequence also caused a solar proton event and Forbush decrease (≈3 per cent). These sequences indicate pile-up of multiple ICMEs, which even achieved a record value of inward magnetopause position. Our analyses of this historical pioneer event bring more insights into possible serious space weather hazards and provide a quantitative basis for future analyses and predictions.

Solar eruptions launch interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and cause geomagnetic storms and equatorial extension of the auroral oval. Their rare and unique nature has made analyses of historical events extremely important to increase their data availability. In this study, we analyzed the space weather event of 1788 October, which was characterized with simultaneous auroral observations. We extended archival surveys and confirmed the auroral visibilities down to Barcelona (46.0° MLAT) on October 21/22 as well as Mizuhara (27.5° MLAT) and Rome (44.8° MLAT) on October 22/23. The end of auroral reports overlapped with a reported declination disturbance at Mannheim, indicating a ΔD amplitude of ≥1.15°. Two positive excursions of ΔD were recorded, lasting for several tens of minutes. Upward field-aligned currents could have flowed poleward of Mannheim associated with substorms. We identified the equatorial boundary of the auroral oval down to 46.5° ILAT in the European sector and approximately ≤41.6° ILAT in the Japanese sector. This is compared with the reported equatorial auroral boundaries during extreme storms. The long storm sequence indicates the arrival of multiple ICMEs, thereby enhancing solar activity at that time. This sequence is indeed contextualized immediately after the maximum of Solar Cycle 4. Because sunspot observations are extremely scarce around 1788, it is challenging to identify the source active region. This in turn makes these auroral records valuable for the analyses of long-term solar activity before the onset of the Dalton Minimum.

Major solar eruptions occasionally direct interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to Earth and cause significant geomagnetic storms and low-latitude aurorae. While individual extreme storms are significant threats to modern civilization, storms occasionally appear in sequence, acting synergistically, and cause “perfect storms” on Earth. The stormy interval in 1938 January was one of such cases. Here, we analyze the contemporary records to reveal its time series on their source active regions, solar eruptions, ICMEs, geomagnetic storms, low-latitude aurorae, and cosmic-ray (CR) variations. Geomagnetic records show that three storms occurred successively on January 17/18 (Dcx ≈ −171 nT), January 21/22 (Dcx ≈ −328 nT), and January 25/26 (Dcx ≈ −336 nT). The amplitudes of the CR variations and storm sudden commencements (SSCs) show the impact of the first ICME as the largest (≈6% decrease in CR and 72 nT in SSC) and the ICMEs associated with the storms that followed as more moderate (≈3% decrease in CR and 63 nT in SSC; ≈2% decrease in CR and 63 nT in SSC). Interestingly, a significant solar proton event occurred on January 16/17 and the Cheltenham ionization chamber showed a possible ground-level enhancement. During the first storm, aurorae were less visible at midlatitudes, whereas, during the second and third storms, the equatorward boundaries of the auroral oval were extended down to 40.3° and 40.0° in invariant latitude. This contrast shows that the initial ICME was probably faster, with a higher total magnitude but a smaller southward component.

Given the infrequency of extreme geomagnetic storms, it is significant to note the concentration of three extreme geomagnetic storms in 1941, whose intensities ranked fourth, twelfth, and fifth within the aa index between 1868–2010. Among them, the geomagnetic storm on 1941 March 1 was so intense that three of the four Dst station magnetograms went off scale. Herein, we reconstruct its time series and measure the storm intensity with an alternative Dst estimate (Dst*). The source solar eruption at 09:29–09:38 GMT on February 28 was located at RGO AR 13814 and its significant intensity is confirmed by large magnetic crochets of ∣35∣ nT measured at Abinger. This solar eruption most likely released a fast interplanetary coronal mass ejection with estimated speed 2260 km s⁻¹. After its impact at 03:57–03:59 GMT on March 1, an extreme magnetic storm was recorded worldwide. Comparative analyses on the contemporary magnetograms show the storm peak intensity of minimum Dst* ≤ −464 nT at 16 GMT, comparable to the most and the second most extreme magnetic storms within the standard Dst index since 1957. This storm triggered significant low-latitude aurorae in the East Asian sector and their equatorward boundary has been reconstructed as 38.°5 in invariant latitude. This result agrees with British magnetograms, which indicate an auroral oval moving above Abinger at 53.°0 in magnetic latitude. The storm amplitude was even more enhanced in equatorial stations and consequently casts caveats on their usage for measurements of the storm intensity in Dst estimates.