Raffaello Foldes
Current Organizations / Institutes
The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article
Previous Organizations / Institutes
The organizations / institutes from the scholar's other articles in the past ten years
Research Subjects
Raffaello Foldes has a total of 132 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:
- Raffaele Marino
Laboratoire de Mécanique des Fluides et d'Acoustique
9 shared publications - Dario Del Moro
Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
6 shared publications Enrico Camporeale
Queen Mary University of London
6 shared publications- Ermanno Pietropaolo
INFN Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche e Chimiche – Università degli Studi dell’Aquila and Gran Sasso Science Institute, Via Vetoio 1, Viale Crispi 7, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy
6 shared publications - Enrico Camporeale
Space Weather TREC University of Colorado Boulder CO USA
5 shared publications - Giancarlo de Gasperis
Dipartimento di Fisica, Sapienza Università di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, I-00185 Roma
5 shared publications
Latest Publications
- Open Access
- 21 October 2026
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Plasma Physics
- Vol. 92 (5) , E143
Statistics of locally averaged energy transfer rate in plasma turbulence
Energy transfer across scales is essential for understanding the dissipation and heating of plasma turbulence. In the energy cascade scenario, the energy transfer rate can be assessed through the third-order law in the inertial range, and it is directly related to the rate of dissipation occurring at the small scale. To investigate the local properties of the energy transfer process, here, we employ three main diagnostics: the locally averaged dissipation rate epsilon Subscript r $\varepsilon _r$ at different scales r $r$ , the local energy transfer (LET) rate and the scale-filtered energy flux. The analyses are performed on direct numerical simulations of three-dimensional (3-D) incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence to evaluate these diagnostics. The outcomes of our study include: (i) an assessment of the spatial distribution of energy transfer rates across scales to determine which diagnostic best captures the features of energy transfer in different ranges; and (ii) a comparison of the outputs of the different diagnostics at significant scales, including a quantitative evaluation of their correlation using appropriate correlation coefficients. The latter shows that the energy dissipation rate, the LET and the scale-filtered energy flux have regional correlation, that is, although not exactly co-located, the intense regions of these three diagnostics occur in spatial proximity. Our results provide insights into understanding the energy transfer process in MHD and plasma turbulence, which shall be extended to more realistic systems.- 21 October 2026
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Plasma Physics
- Vol. 92 (5) , E143
Open AccessStatistics of locally averaged energy transfer rate in plasma turbulence
Energy transfer across scales is essential for understanding the dissipation and heating of plasma turbulence. In the energy cascade scenario, the energy transfer rate can be assessed through the third-order law in the inertial range, and it is directly related to the rate of dissipation occurring at the small scale. To investigate the local properties of the energy transfer process, here, we employ three main diagnostics: the locally averaged dissipation rate epsilon Subscript r $\varepsilon _r$ at different scales r $r$ , the local energy transfer (LET) rate and the scale-filtered energy flux. The analyses are performed on direct numerical simulations of three-dimensional (3-D) incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence to evaluate these diagnostics. The outcomes of our study include: (i) an assessment of the spatial distribution of energy transfer rates across scales to determine which diagnostic best captures the features of energy transfer in different ranges; and (ii) a comparison of the outputs of the different diagnostics at significant scales, including a quantitative evaluation of their correlation using appropriate correlation coefficients. The latter shows that the energy dissipation rate, the LET and the scale-filtered energy flux have regional correlation, that is, although not exactly co-located, the intense regions of these three diagnostics occur in spatial proximity. Our results provide insights into understanding the energy transfer process in MHD and plasma turbulence, which shall be extended to more realistic systems. - 2 April 2026
- Published by Agence Bibliographique de l'Enseignement Supérieur
Local energy transfer in geophysical fluids and space plasmas
Transfert local d'énergie dans les fluides géophysiques et les plasmas spatiaux: La turbulence dans les fluides géophysiques et les plasmas spatiaux entre en concurrence avec les ondes internes pour transférer l'énergie à travers les échelles. Des preuves pointent vers la possibilité qu'un transfert d'énergie vers les grandes échelles, ressemblant au cas des écoulements turbulents bidimensionnels, puisse se développer dans l'atmosphère et dans les océans, sous l'effet de la rotation, éventuellement aidé par le grand rapport d'aspect du domaine. En effet, des transferts d'énergie bidirectionnels (à grande et petite échelles) ont été observés dans différents contextes naturels, dans les océans par exemple, mais aussi dans les plasmas cinétiques, dans lesquels les champs magnétiques favorisent la propagation des ondes et la reconnexion magnétique contribue à rendre la dynamique de ces flux encore plus riche. Dans ces situations, caractérisées par une forte inhomogénéité et anisotropie, les outils d'analyse standards ne peuvent fournir qu'une information partielle sur la répartition de l'énergie aux différentes échelles. Afin de parvenir à une caractérisation plus exhaustive du transfert d'énergie, dans cette thèse, nous avons utilisé la technique du filtrage spatial (SF) pour étudier l'énergétique des écoulements turbulents stratifiés, d'intérêt géophysique, et des plasmas dans le régime cinétique, ce dernier étant pertinent pour comprendre la dynamique du milieu interplanétaire. En particulier, nous avons ciblé deux phénomènes majeurs, les courants verticaux extrêmes se développant dans les écoulements géophysiques stratifiés et les événements de reconnexion observés dans les plasmas héliosphériques et magnétosphériques, toujours à l'aide de données de simulation.Après avoir encore plus affiné la technique SF, nous l'avons utilisée pour analyser un ensemble de simulations numériques directes d'écoulements stratifiés, en faisant varier le nombre de Froude, en nous concentrant sur la rétroaction du développement des vents verticaux extrêmes sur le transfert d'énergie, localement dans l'espace physique et de Fourier. Nous avons pu vérifier que les courants verticaux injectent effectivement de l'énergie, renforçant finalement la turbulence et la dissipation, et affectant les propriétés de mélange des écoulements géophysiques. La même approche a finalement été mise en œuvre sur les sorties des simulations de plasma hybride-cinétique, afin d'évaluer les effets des événements de reconnexion magnétique sur le transfert d'énergie aux échelles sub-ioniques. Notre analyse a souligné pour la première fois le rôle de la reconnexion comme déclencheur de transferts double d'énergie simultanément vers des échelles plus grandes et plus petites que les échelles associées aux événements de reconnexion observés.
- 2 April 2026
- Published by Agence Bibliographique de l'Enseignement Supérieur
Local energy transfer in geophysical fluids and space plasmas
Transfert local d'énergie dans les fluides géophysiques et les plasmas spatiaux: La turbulence dans les fluides géophysiques et les plasmas spatiaux entre en concurrence avec les ondes internes pour transférer l'énergie à travers les échelles. Des preuves pointent vers la possibilité qu'un transfert d'énergie vers les grandes échelles, ressemblant au cas des écoulements turbulents bidimensionnels, puisse se développer dans l'atmosphère et dans les océans, sous l'effet de la rotation, éventuellement aidé par le grand rapport d'aspect du domaine. En effet, des transferts d'énergie bidirectionnels (à grande et petite échelles) ont été observés dans différents contextes naturels, dans les océans par exemple, mais aussi dans les plasmas cinétiques, dans lesquels les champs magnétiques favorisent la propagation des ondes et la reconnexion magnétique contribue à rendre la dynamique de ces flux encore plus riche. Dans ces situations, caractérisées par une forte inhomogénéité et anisotropie, les outils d'analyse standards ne peuvent fournir qu'une information partielle sur la répartition de l'énergie aux différentes échelles. Afin de parvenir à une caractérisation plus exhaustive du transfert d'énergie, dans cette thèse, nous avons utilisé la technique du filtrage spatial (SF) pour étudier l'énergétique des écoulements turbulents stratifiés, d'intérêt géophysique, et des plasmas dans le régime cinétique, ce dernier étant pertinent pour comprendre la dynamique du milieu interplanétaire. En particulier, nous avons ciblé deux phénomènes majeurs, les courants verticaux extrêmes se développant dans les écoulements géophysiques stratifiés et les événements de reconnexion observés dans les plasmas héliosphériques et magnétosphériques, toujours à l'aide de données de simulation.Après avoir encore plus affiné la technique SF, nous l'avons utilisée pour analyser un ensemble de simulations numériques directes d'écoulements stratifiés, en faisant varier le nombre de Froude, en nous concentrant sur la rétroaction du développement des vents verticaux extrêmes sur le transfert d'énergie, localement dans l'espace physique et de Fourier. Nous avons pu vérifier que les courants verticaux injectent effectivement de l'énergie, renforçant finalement la turbulence et la dissipation, et affectant les propriétés de mélange des écoulements géophysiques. La même approche a finalement été mise en œuvre sur les sorties des simulations de plasma hybride-cinétique, afin d'évaluer les effets des événements de reconnexion magnétique sur le transfert d'énergie aux échelles sub-ioniques. Notre analyse a souligné pour la première fois le rôle de la reconnexion comme déclencheur de transferts double d'énergie simultanément vers des échelles plus grandes et plus petites que les échelles associées aux événements de reconnexion observés.
- Open Access
- 30 April 2025
- Published by American Physical Society (APS) in Physical Review Fluids
- Vol. 10 (4)
Characterization of local energy transfer in large-scale intermittent stratified turbulent flows via coarse-graining
Recent studies based on simulations of the Boussinesq equations indicate that stratified turbulent flows can develop large-scale intermittency in the velocity and temperature fields, as detected in the atmosphere and oceans. In particular, emerging powerful vertical drafts were found to generate local turbulence, proving necessary for stratified flows to dissipate the energy as efficiently as homogeneous isotropic turbulent flows. The existence of regions characterized by enhanced turbulence and dissipation, as observed, for instance, in the ocean, requires appropriate tools to assess how energy is transferred across the scales and at the same time locally in the physical space. After refining a classical coarse-graining procedure, here we investigate the feedback of extreme vertical velocity drafts on energy transfer and exchanges in subdomains of simulations of stably stratified flows of geophysical interest. Our analysis shows that vertical drafts are indeed able to trigger upscale and downscale energy transfers, strengthening the coupling between kinetic and potential energies at certain scales, depending on the intensity of the local vertical velocity.
- 30 April 2025
- Published by American Physical Society (APS) in Physical Review Fluids
- Vol. 10 (4)
Open AccessCharacterization of local energy transfer in large-scale intermittent stratified turbulent flows via coarse-graining
Recent studies based on simulations of the Boussinesq equations indicate that stratified turbulent flows can develop large-scale intermittency in the velocity and temperature fields, as detected in the atmosphere and oceans. In particular, emerging powerful vertical drafts were found to generate local turbulence, proving necessary for stratified flows to dissipate the energy as efficiently as homogeneous isotropic turbulent flows. The existence of regions characterized by enhanced turbulence and dissipation, as observed, for instance, in the ocean, requires appropriate tools to assess how energy is transferred across the scales and at the same time locally in the physical space. After refining a classical coarse-graining procedure, here we investigate the feedback of extreme vertical velocity drafts on energy transfer and exchanges in subdomains of simulations of stably stratified flows of geophysical interest. Our analysis shows that vertical drafts are indeed able to trigger upscale and downscale energy transfers, strengthening the coupling between kinetic and potential energies at certain scales, depending on the intensity of the local vertical velocity.
- Open Access
- 18 March 2025
- Published by Copernicus GmbH
Evidence of dual energy transfer driven by magnetic reconnection at sub-ion scales
The study of space plasmas at the kinetic scale has seen rapid growth in recent years due to the exponential increase in computational power and more accurate in-situ measurements. Both numerical simulations and observations have revealed a clear transition across ion scales from the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) to the kinetic regime, characterized by different physical phenomena dominating the turbulent properties and the heating of plasmas. Several studies have associated the so-called ion break with magnetic reconnection, which is considered responsible for injecting energy into this range, thereby driving the sub-ion energy cascade.In this work, we analyze a 2D3V hybrid-Vlasov simulation of forced plasma turbulence using the space-filtering (or coarse-graining) technique, which allows for a simultaneous investigation of energy transfer properties as a function of scale, space, and time. Using this approach, we quantitatively show, for the first time, that magnetic reconnection in non-collisional plasmas is associated with dual energy transfer across ion scales, bridging the MHD and kinetic regimes. The onset of reconnection events triggers the formation of sub-ion scale turbulent fluctuations and plays a crucial role in the appearance of an inverse energy transfer regime originating at these sub-ion scales.
- 18 March 2025
- Published by Copernicus GmbH
Open AccessEvidence of dual energy transfer driven by magnetic reconnection at sub-ion scales
The study of space plasmas at the kinetic scale has seen rapid growth in recent years due to the exponential increase in computational power and more accurate in-situ measurements. Both numerical simulations and observations have revealed a clear transition across ion scales from the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) to the kinetic regime, characterized by different physical phenomena dominating the turbulent properties and the heating of plasmas. Several studies have associated the so-called ion break with magnetic reconnection, which is considered responsible for injecting energy into this range, thereby driving the sub-ion energy cascade.In this work, we analyze a 2D3V hybrid-Vlasov simulation of forced plasma turbulence using the space-filtering (or coarse-graining) technique, which allows for a simultaneous investigation of energy transfer properties as a function of scale, space, and time. Using this approach, we quantitatively show, for the first time, that magnetic reconnection in non-collisional plasmas is associated with dual energy transfer across ion scales, bridging the MHD and kinetic regimes. The onset of reconnection events triggers the formation of sub-ion scale turbulent fluctuations and plays a crucial role in the appearance of an inverse energy transfer regime originating at these sub-ion scales.
- 11 December 2024
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Fluid Mechanics
- Vol. 1001
Waves and non-propagating modes in stratified MHD turbulence subject to a weak mean magnetic field
In this study we consider a freely decaying, stably stratified homogeneous magnetohydrodynamic turbulent plasma with a weak vertical background magnetic field ( $\boldsymbol {B}_0=B_0\hat {\boldsymbol {z}}),$ aligned with the density gradient of strength $N$ (i.e. Brunt–Väisälä frequency). Both linear theory and direct numerical simulations (DNS) are used to analyse the flow dynamics for a Boussinesq fluid with unitary magnetic and thermal Prandtl numbers. We implemented a normal mode decomposition emphasizing different types of motions depending on whether both the Froude $F_r$ and Alfvén–Mach $M$ numbers are small or only $F_r$ is small but $M$ is finite. In the former case, there is a non-propagating (NP) mode and fast modes: Alfvén waves with frequency $\omega _a$ and magnetogravity waves with frequency $\omega _{ag}$ . In the latter case, there are fast gravity waves with frequency $\omega _g$ and slow modes: NP mode and slow Alfvén waves. The numerical simulations carried out are started from initial isotropic conditions with zero initial magnetic and density fluctuations, so that the initial energy of the NP mode is strictly zero, for $0< B_0/(L_iN)\leqslant 0.12$ and a weak mean magnetic field ( $B_0=0.2$ or $B_0=0.4),$ where $L_i$ denotes the isotropic integral length scale. The DNS results indicate a weak turbulence regime for which $F_r$ is small and $M$ is finite. It is found that the vertical magnetic energy as well as the energy of the NP mode are drastically reduced as $N$ increases, while there is instead a forward cascade even for the magnetic field. The contribution coming from the energy of fast (gravity) waves does not exceed $50\,\%,$ while that coming from the energy of the NP mode does not exceed $10\,\%.$ Vertical motions are more affected by the effect of stratification than by the effect of the mean magnetic field, while it is the opposite for horizontal motions. We show that the spectrum of slow (Alfvén) waves and fast (gravity) waves tends to follow the power law $k_\perp ^{-3}$ for a wide range of time, $3< t<20$ . At high vertical (or horizontal) wavenumbers, the main contribution to total energy comes from the energy of slow Alfvén waves. At large and intermediate horizontal (or vertical) scales, the spectra of the energy of NP mode exhibit a flat shape.- 11 December 2024
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Fluid Mechanics
- Vol. 1001
Waves and non-propagating modes in stratified MHD turbulence subject to a weak mean magnetic field
In this study we consider a freely decaying, stably stratified homogeneous magnetohydrodynamic turbulent plasma with a weak vertical background magnetic field ( $\boldsymbol {B}_0=B_0\hat {\boldsymbol {z}}),$ aligned with the density gradient of strength $N$ (i.e. Brunt–Väisälä frequency). Both linear theory and direct numerical simulations (DNS) are used to analyse the flow dynamics for a Boussinesq fluid with unitary magnetic and thermal Prandtl numbers. We implemented a normal mode decomposition emphasizing different types of motions depending on whether both the Froude $F_r$ and Alfvén–Mach $M$ numbers are small or only $F_r$ is small but $M$ is finite. In the former case, there is a non-propagating (NP) mode and fast modes: Alfvén waves with frequency $\omega _a$ and magnetogravity waves with frequency $\omega _{ag}$ . In the latter case, there are fast gravity waves with frequency $\omega _g$ and slow modes: NP mode and slow Alfvén waves. The numerical simulations carried out are started from initial isotropic conditions with zero initial magnetic and density fluctuations, so that the initial energy of the NP mode is strictly zero, for $0< B_0/(L_iN)\leqslant 0.12$ and a weak mean magnetic field ( $B_0=0.2$ or $B_0=0.4),$ where $L_i$ denotes the isotropic integral length scale. The DNS results indicate a weak turbulence regime for which $F_r$ is small and $M$ is finite. It is found that the vertical magnetic energy as well as the energy of the NP mode are drastically reduced as $N$ increases, while there is instead a forward cascade even for the magnetic field. The contribution coming from the energy of fast (gravity) waves does not exceed $50\,\%,$ while that coming from the energy of the NP mode does not exceed $10\,\%.$ Vertical motions are more affected by the effect of stratification than by the effect of the mean magnetic field, while it is the opposite for horizontal motions. We show that the spectrum of slow (Alfvén) waves and fast (gravity) waves tends to follow the power law $k_\perp ^{-3}$ for a wide range of time, $3< t<20$ . At high vertical (or horizontal) wavenumbers, the main contribution to total energy comes from the energy of slow Alfvén waves. At large and intermediate horizontal (or vertical) scales, the spectra of the energy of NP mode exhibit a flat shape.- 26 November 2024
- Published by American Physical Society (APS) in Physical Review E
- Vol. 110 (5) , 055207
Evidence of dual energy transfer driven by magnetic reconnection at subion scales
The properties of energy transfer in the kinetic range of plasma turbulence have fundamental implications on the turbulent heating of space and astrophysical plasmas. It was suggested that magnetic reconnection may be responsible for driving the subion scale cascade, and that this process would be characterized by a direct energy transfer toward even smaller scales (until dissipation), and a simultaneous inverse transfer of energy toward larger scales, until the ion break. Here we employ the space-filter technique on high-resolution 2D3V hybrid-Vlasov simulations of continuously driven turbulence providing quantitative evidence that magnetic reconnection is indeed able to trigger a dual energy transfer originating at subion scales.
- 26 November 2024
- Published by American Physical Society (APS) in Physical Review E
- Vol. 110 (5) , 055207
Evidence of dual energy transfer driven by magnetic reconnection at subion scales
The properties of energy transfer in the kinetic range of plasma turbulence have fundamental implications on the turbulent heating of space and astrophysical plasmas. It was suggested that magnetic reconnection may be responsible for driving the subion scale cascade, and that this process would be characterized by a direct energy transfer toward even smaller scales (until dissipation), and a simultaneous inverse transfer of energy toward larger scales, until the ion break. Here we employ the space-filter technique on high-resolution 2D3V hybrid-Vlasov simulations of continuously driven turbulence providing quantitative evidence that magnetic reconnection is indeed able to trigger a dual energy transfer originating at subion scales.
- Open Access
Evidence of dual energy transfer driven by magnetic reconnection at sub-ion scales
The properties of energy transfer in the kinetic range of plasma turbulence have fundamental implications on the turbulent heating of space and astrophysical plasmas. It was recently suggested that magnetic reconnection may be responsible for driving the sub-ion scale cascade, and that this process would be characterized by a direct energy transfer towards even smaller scales (until dissipation), and a simultaneous inverse transfer of energy towards larger scales, until the ion break. Here we employ the space-filter technique on high-resolution 2D3V hybrid-Vlasov simulations of continuously driven turbulence providing for the first time quantitative evidence that magnetic reconnection is indeed able to trigger a dual energy transfer originating at sub-ion scales.
Open AccessEvidence of dual energy transfer driven by magnetic reconnection at sub-ion scales
The properties of energy transfer in the kinetic range of plasma turbulence have fundamental implications on the turbulent heating of space and astrophysical plasmas. It was recently suggested that magnetic reconnection may be responsible for driving the sub-ion scale cascade, and that this process would be characterized by a direct energy transfer towards even smaller scales (until dissipation), and a simultaneous inverse transfer of energy towards larger scales, until the ion break. Here we employ the space-filter technique on high-resolution 2D3V hybrid-Vlasov simulations of continuously driven turbulence providing for the first time quantitative evidence that magnetic reconnection is indeed able to trigger a dual energy transfer originating at sub-ion scales.
- Open Access
- 29 March 2024
- Published by EDP Sciences in Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate
- Vol. 14, 6
A catalogue of observed geo-effective CME/ICME characteristics
One of the goals of Space Weather studies is to achieve a better understanding of impulsive phenomena, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), to improve our ability to forecast their propagation characteristics and mitigate the risks to our technologically driven society. The essential part of achieving this goal is to assess the performance of forecasting models. To this end, the quality and availability of suitable data are of paramount importance. In this work, we merged publicly available data of CMEs from both in-situ and remote observations in order to build a dataset of CME properties. To evaluate the accuracy of the dataset and confirm the relationship between in-situ and remote observations, we have employed the Drag-Based Model (DBM) due to its simplicity and modest consumption of computational resources. In this study, we have also explored the parameter space for the drag parameter and solar wind speed using a Monte Carlo approach to evaluate how efficiently the DBM determines the propagation of CMEs for the events in the dataset. The geoeffective CMEs selected as a result of this work are compliant with the hypothesis of DBM (isolated CME, constant solar wind speed beyond 20 R⊙) and also yield further insight into CME features such as arrival time and arrival speed at L1 point, lift-off time, speed at 20 R⊙ and other similar quantities. Our analysis based on the acceptance rate in the DBM inversion procedure shows that almost 50% of the CME events in the dataset are well described by DBM as they propagate in the heliosphere. The dataset includes statistical metrics for the DBM model parameters. The probability distribution functions (PDFs) for the free parameters of DBM have been derived through a Monte Carlo-like inversion procedure. Probability distribution functions obtained from this work are comparable to PDFs employed in previous works. The analysis showed that there exist two different most probable values (median values) of solar wind speed for DBM input based on slow (wslow ≈ 386 km/s) and fast (wfast ≈ 547 km/s) solar wind type. The most probable value for the drag parameter (γ ≈ 0.687 × 10−7 km−1) in our study is somewhat higher than the values reported in previous studies. Using a data-driven approach, this procedure allows us to present a homogeneous, reliable, and robust dataset for the investigation of CME propagation. Additionally, possible CME events are identified where the DBM prediction is not valid due to model limitations and higher uncertainties in the input parameters. These events require further thorough investigation in the future.
- 29 March 2024
- Published by EDP Sciences in Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate
- Vol. 14, 6
Open AccessA catalogue of observed geo-effective CME/ICME characteristics
One of the goals of Space Weather studies is to achieve a better understanding of impulsive phenomena, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), to improve our ability to forecast their propagation characteristics and mitigate the risks to our technologically driven society. The essential part of achieving this goal is to assess the performance of forecasting models. To this end, the quality and availability of suitable data are of paramount importance. In this work, we merged publicly available data of CMEs from both in-situ and remote observations in order to build a dataset of CME properties. To evaluate the accuracy of the dataset and confirm the relationship between in-situ and remote observations, we have employed the Drag-Based Model (DBM) due to its simplicity and modest consumption of computational resources. In this study, we have also explored the parameter space for the drag parameter and solar wind speed using a Monte Carlo approach to evaluate how efficiently the DBM determines the propagation of CMEs for the events in the dataset. The geoeffective CMEs selected as a result of this work are compliant with the hypothesis of DBM (isolated CME, constant solar wind speed beyond 20 R⊙) and also yield further insight into CME features such as arrival time and arrival speed at L1 point, lift-off time, speed at 20 R⊙ and other similar quantities. Our analysis based on the acceptance rate in the DBM inversion procedure shows that almost 50% of the CME events in the dataset are well described by DBM as they propagate in the heliosphere. The dataset includes statistical metrics for the DBM model parameters. The probability distribution functions (PDFs) for the free parameters of DBM have been derived through a Monte Carlo-like inversion procedure. Probability distribution functions obtained from this work are comparable to PDFs employed in previous works. The analysis showed that there exist two different most probable values (median values) of solar wind speed for DBM input based on slow (wslow ≈ 386 km/s) and fast (wfast ≈ 547 km/s) solar wind type. The most probable value for the drag parameter (γ ≈ 0.687 × 10−7 km−1) in our study is somewhat higher than the values reported in previous studies. Using a data-driven approach, this procedure allows us to present a homogeneous, reliable, and robust dataset for the investigation of CME propagation. Additionally, possible CME events are identified where the DBM prediction is not valid due to model limitations and higher uncertainties in the input parameters. These events require further thorough investigation in the future.
- Top Cited Papers
- 1 March 2024
- Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Science
- Vol. 383 (6686) , 1005-1009
Large-scale self-organization in dry turbulent atmospheres
How turbulent convective fluctuations organize to form larger-scale structures in planetary atmospheres remains a question that eludes quantitative answers. The assumption that this process is the result of an inverse cascade was suggested half a century ago in two-dimensional fluids, but its applicability to atmospheric and oceanic flows remains heavily debated, hampering our understanding of the energy balance in planetary systems. We show using direct numerical simulations with spatial resolutions of 12288 2 × 384 points that rotating and stratified flows can support a bidirectional cascade of energy, in three dimensions, with a ratio of Rossby to Froude numbers comparable to that of Earth’s atmosphere. Our results establish that, in dry atmospheres, spontaneous order can arise through an inverse cascade to the largest spatial scales.
- 1 March 2024
- Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Science
- Vol. 383 (6686) , 1005-1009
Top Cited PapersLarge-scale self-organization in dry turbulent atmospheres
How turbulent convective fluctuations organize to form larger-scale structures in planetary atmospheres remains a question that eludes quantitative answers. The assumption that this process is the result of an inverse cascade was suggested half a century ago in two-dimensional fluids, but its applicability to atmospheric and oceanic flows remains heavily debated, hampering our understanding of the energy balance in planetary systems. We show using direct numerical simulations with spatial resolutions of 12288 2 × 384 points that rotating and stratified flows can support a bidirectional cascade of energy, in three dimensions, with a ratio of Rossby to Froude numbers comparable to that of Earth’s atmosphere. Our results establish that, in dry atmospheres, spontaneous order can arise through an inverse cascade to the largest spatial scales.
- Open Access
- 2 February 2024
- Published by EDP Sciences in Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate
- Vol. 14
A Bayesian approach to the drag-based modelling of ICMEs
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are huge clouds of magnetised plasma expelled from the solar corona that can travel towards the Earth and cause significant space weather effects. The Drag-Based Model (DBM) describes the propagation of CMEs in an ambient solar wind as analogous to an aerodynamic drag. The drag-based approximation is popular because it is a simple analytical model that depends only on two parameters, the drag parameter $ \gamma $ and the solar wind speed $ w$. DBM thus allows us to obtain reliable estimates of CME transit time at low computational cost. Previous works proposed a probabilistic version of DBM, the Probabilistic Drag Based Model (P-DBM), which enables the evaluation of the uncertainties associated with the predictions. In this work, we infer the “a-posteriori” probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the $ \gamma $ and $ w$ parameters of the DBM by exploiting a well-established Bayesian inference technique: the Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMC) method. By utilizing this Bayesian method through two different approaches, an ensemble and an individual approach, we obtain specific DBM parameter PDFs for two ensembles of CMEs: those travelling with fast and slow solar wind, respectively. Subsequently, we assess the operational applicability of the model by forecasting the arrival time of CMEs. While the ensemble approach displays notable limitations, the individual approach yields promising results, demonstrating competitive performances compared to the current state-of-the-art, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 9.86 ± 4.07 h achieved in the best-case scenario.- 2 February 2024
- Published by EDP Sciences in Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate
- Vol. 14
Open AccessA Bayesian approach to the drag-based modelling of ICMEs
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are huge clouds of magnetised plasma expelled from the solar corona that can travel towards the Earth and cause significant space weather effects. The Drag-Based Model (DBM) describes the propagation of CMEs in an ambient solar wind as analogous to an aerodynamic drag. The drag-based approximation is popular because it is a simple analytical model that depends only on two parameters, the drag parameter $ \gamma $ and the solar wind speed $ w$. DBM thus allows us to obtain reliable estimates of CME transit time at low computational cost. Previous works proposed a probabilistic version of DBM, the Probabilistic Drag Based Model (P-DBM), which enables the evaluation of the uncertainties associated with the predictions. In this work, we infer the “a-posteriori” probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the $ \gamma $ and $ w$ parameters of the DBM by exploiting a well-established Bayesian inference technique: the Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMC) method. By utilizing this Bayesian method through two different approaches, an ensemble and an individual approach, we obtain specific DBM parameter PDFs for two ensembles of CMEs: those travelling with fast and slow solar wind, respectively. Subsequently, we assess the operational applicability of the model by forecasting the arrival time of CMEs. While the ensemble approach displays notable limitations, the individual approach yields promising results, demonstrating competitive performances compared to the current state-of-the-art, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 9.86 ± 4.07 h achieved in the best-case scenario.