Minoru Chikira

Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) coupled with a slab ocean model was applied to a paleoclimate research for the first time. The model was run at a horizontal resolution of 56 km with and without a convective parameterization, given the orbital parameters of the last interglacial (127,000 years before present). The simulated climatological mean-states are qualitatively similar to those in previous studies reinforcing their robustness, however, the resolution of this model enables to represent the narrow precipitation band along the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. A particular focus was given to convectively coupled disturbances in our analysis. The simulated results show a greater signal of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and weakening of the moist Kelvin waves. Although the model's representation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the present-day simulations is not satisfactory, a significant enhancement of its signal is found in the counterpart of the last interglacial. The density of the tropical cyclones decreases over the western north Pacific, north Atlantic and increases over the south Indian Ocean and south Atlantic. The model's performance is generally better when the convective parameterization is used, but the tropical cyclones are better represented without the convective parameterization. Additional simulations using the low-resolution topography reveals that the better representation of the Tibetan Plateau enhances the boreal summer Asian monsoon and its impact is similar and comparable to that of the orbital parameters over the south Asia and the Indian Ocean.

Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) coupled with a slab ocean model was applied to a paleoclimate research for the first time. The model was run at a horizontal resolution of 56km with and without a convective parameterization, given the orbital parameters of the last interglacial (127,000 years before present). The simulated climatological mean-states are qualitatively similar to those in previous studies reinforcing their robustness, however, the resolution of this model enables to represent the narrow precipitation band along the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. A particular focus was given to convectively coupled disturbances in our analysis. The simulated results show a greater signal of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and weakening of the moist Kelvin waves. Although the model's representation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the present-day simulations is not satisfactory, a significant enhancement of its signal is found in the counterpart of the last interglacial. The density of the tropical cyclones decreases over the western north Pacific, north Atlantic and increases over the south Indian ocean and south Atlantic. The model's performance is generally better when the convective parameterization is used, but the tropical cyclones are better represented without the convective parameterization. Additional simulations using the low-resolution topography reveals that the better representation of the Tibetan Plateau enhances the boreal summer Asian monsoon and its impact is similar and comparable to that of the orbital parameters over the south Asia and the Indian ocean.

The sixth version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), called MIROC6, was cooperatively developed by a Japanese modeling community. In the present paper, simulated mean climate, internal climate variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6 are evaluated and briefly summarized in comparison with the previous version of our climate model (MIROC5) and observations. The results show that the overall reproducibility of mean climate and internal climate variability in MIROC6 is better than that in MIROC5. The tropical climate systems (e.g., summertime precipitation in the western Pacific and the eastward-propagating Madden–Julian oscillation) and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation (e.g., the westerlies, the polar night jet, and troposphere–stratosphere interactions) are significantly improved in MIROC6. These improvements can be attributed to the newly implemented parameterization for shallow convective processes and to the inclusion of the stratosphere. While there are significant differences in climates and variabilities between the two models, the effective climate sensitivity of 2.6 K remains the same because the differences in radiative forcing and climate feedback tend to offset each other. With an aim towards contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, designated simulations tackling a wide range of climate science issues, as well as seasonal to decadal climate predictions and future climate projections, are currently ongoing using MIROC6.

The authors demonstrate that an appropriate treatment of convective entrainment is essential for determining spatial distributions of and temporal variations in precipitation. Four numerical experiments are performed using atmospheric models with different entrainment characteristics: a control experiment (Ctl), a no-entrainment experiment (NoEnt), an original Arakawa–Schubert experiment (AS), and an AS experiment with a simple empirical suppression of convection depending on cloud-layer humidity (ASRH). The fractional entrainment rates of AS and ASRH are constant for each cloud type and are very small in the lower troposphere compared with those in the Ctl, in which half of the buoyancy-generated energy is consumed by entrainment. Spatial and temporal variations in the observed precipitation are satisfactorily reproduced in the Ctl, but their amplitudes are underestimated with a so-called double intertropical convergence zone bias in the NoEnt and AS. The spatial variation is larger in the Ctl because convection is more active over humid ascending regions and more suppressed over dry subsidence regions. Feedback processes involving convection, the large-scale circulation, free tropospheric moistening by congestus, and radiation enhance the variations. The temporal evolution of precipitation events is also more realistic in the Ctl, because congestus moistens the midtroposphere, and large precipitation events occur once sufficient moisture is available. The large entrainment in the lower troposphere, increasing free tropospheric moistening by congestus and enhancing the coupling of convection to free tropospheric humidity, is suggested to be important for the realistic spatial and temporal variations.

The eastward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation represented by the Chikira–Sugiyama cumulus scheme in a general circulation model was investigated focusing on the variation of the free-tropospheric humidity. The net effect of the vertical advection and cloud process amplifies the positive moisture anomaly in the mature phase, supporting the moisture-mode theory. The horizontal advection causes the eastward propagation of the field. The variation of the moisture profile is accurately understood by using environmental vertical velocity outside cumuli. The velocity is regulated by a thermodynamic balance under a weak temperature gradient. A nondimensional parameter α plays an important role in the moisture variation, which characterizes the efficiency of moistening (drying) induced by external heating (cooling). In the middle and lower troposphere, the major moistening factor is the radiative warming anomaly, which induces the upward environmental vertical velocity anomaly. The reevaporation of the precipitation works as drying, since its cooling effect induces the downward environmental vertical velocity anomaly. Snow melting significantly cools and thereby dries the midtroposphere. The moistening of the midtroposphere is important for moistening the lower troposphere through the reduction of α. The efficiency of moistening depends on the heating profile, and congestus clouds play an important role in it. The heating profile, which maximizes the moistening of the free troposphere, is realized in the mature phase. The atmosphere is marginally unstable even in the mature phase, which is a favorable condition for the congestus clouds to occur.

The eastward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation represented by the Chikira–Sugiyama cumulus parameterization in an atmospheric general circulation model is compared with observations and reanalyses. The scheme is characterized by state-dependent entrainment rates that vertically vary affected by the environment. The zonal wavenumber–frequency power spectrum shows a strong signal corresponding to the Madden–Julian oscillation. The eastward-propagating feature of the convective region and accompanying anomalous zonal wind structure is well extracted by the first and second modes of the combined empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) with a reasonable explained variance for the first mode, though the second mode is not sufficiently reproduced. The basic features of the composited anomalous fields including moisture, temperature, and vertical and zonal winds resemble those of the reanalysis in both the free troposphere and surface air. The anomalous free-tropospheric moisture exhibits its westward tilt and the peak moist static energy of the surface air is shifted eastward as in the reanalysis. The anomalous low-level zonal wind changes its direction to the east of the convective center. The model’s outstanding deficiencies include the weak convective activity over the Indian Ocean, weaker westward tilt, and seemingly underestimated shallow convection.

The high sensitivity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to cumulus convection is examined by means of a series of climate simulations using an updated version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), called MIROC5. Given that the preindustrial control run using MIROC5 shows a realistic ENSO, the integration is repeated with four different values of the parameter, λ, which affects the efficiency of the entrainment rate in cumuli. The ENSO amplitude is found to be proportional to λ−1 and to vary from 0.6 to 1.6 K. A comparison of four experiments reveals the mechanisms for which the cumulus convections control behavior of ENSO in MIROC as follows. Efficient entrainment due to a large λ increases congestus clouds over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and reduces the vertical temperature gradient over the eastern Pacific, resulting in a wetter ITCZ and drier cold tongue via accelerated meridional circulation. The dry cold tongue then shifts the atmospheric responses to El Niño/La Niña westward, thereby reducing the effective Bjerknes feedback. The first half of these processes is identifiable in a companion set of atmosphere model experiments, but the difference in mean precipitation contrast is quite small. On one hand, the mean meridional precipitation contrast over the eastern Pacific is a relevant indicator of the ENSO amplitude in MIROC. On the other hand, the nonlinear feedback from ENSO affects the mean state, the latter therefore not regarded as a fundamental cause for different ENSO amplitudes.

A new version of the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model cooperatively produced by the Japanese research community, known as the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), has recently been developed. A century-long control experiment was performed using the new version (MIROC5) with the standard resolution of the T85 atmosphere and 1° ocean models. The climatological mean state and variability are then compared with observations and those in a previous version (MIROC3.2) with two different resolutions (medres, hires), coarser and finer than the resolution of MIROC5. A few aspects of the mean fields in MIROC5 are similar to or slightly worse than MIROC3.2, but otherwise the climatological features are considerably better. In particular, improvements are found in precipitation, zonal mean atmospheric fields, equatorial ocean subsurface fields, and the simulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The difference between MIROC5 and the previous model is larger than that between the two MIROC3.2 versions, indicating a greater effect of updating parameterization schemes on the model climate than increasing the model resolution. The mean cloud property obtained from the sophisticated prognostic schemes in MIROC5 shows good agreement with satellite measurements. MIROC5 reveals an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6 K, which is lower than that in MIROC3.2 by 1 K. This is probably due to the negative feedback of low clouds to the increasing concentration of CO2, which is opposite to that in MIROC3.2.

The impact of a new cumulus parameterization developed in Part I of this paper on climatology in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is compared with that of the Arakawa–Schubert scheme. The parameterization is characterized by a vertically variable entrainment rate depending on the surrounding environment. Two kinds of formulations on entrainment rate are tested and produce similar results in the AGCM. The results show reduction of precipitation over land and increase over the sea, weakening of the southern side of the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the southeastern Pacific, and better representation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), all of which are consistent with observations. The population of cumulus congestus is significantly increased, thereby inducing additional heating in the lower troposphere. The diurnal variation over land shows that deep convection tends to be suppressed earlier because of the reduction of convective available potential energy and tropospheric humidity caused by the convective activity itself. An analysis of the daily outputs suggests that a better representation of the cumulus congestus and sensitivity of the scheme to tropospheric humidity are important for the realistic representation of the precipitation over the double ITCZ and SPCZ.

A new cumulus parameterization is developed for which an entraining plume model is adopted. The lateral entrainment rate varies vertically depending on the surrounding environment. Two different formulations are examined for the rate. The cumulus ensemble is spectrally represented according to the updraft velocity at cloud base. Cloud-base mass flux is determined with prognostic convective kinetic energy closure. The entrainment rate tends to be large near cloud base because of the small updraft velocity near that level. Deep convection tends to be suppressed when convective available potential energy is small because of upward reduction of in-cloud moist static energy. Dry environmental air significantly reduces in-cloud humidity mainly because of the large entrainment rate in the lower troposphere, which leads to suppression of deep convection, consistent with observations and previous results of cloud-resolving models. The change in entrainment rate has the potential to influence cumulus convection through many feedbacks. The results of an atmospheric general circulation model are improved in both climatology and variability. A representation of the South Pacific convergence zone and the double intertropical convergence zone is improved. The moist Kelvin waves are represented without empirical triggering schemes with a reasonable equivalent depth. A spectral analysis shows a strong signal of the Madden–Julian oscillation. The scheme provides new insights and better understanding of the interaction between cumuli and the surrounding environment.