Ioannis Vavouras

We consider the impact of the two recent economic crises, one that resulted from the great recession of 2007–2009 and one following the COVID-19 pandemic, on income inequality and the risk of poverty in Greece. To this end, we also investigate the key macroeconomic variables affecting the Greek income distribution. We find that alternative measures of inequality and relative poverty have deteriorated during the years of crises, implying that the country’s response to economic shocks has been particularly harmful for its more disadvantaged citizens. Regarding the variables affecting the income distribution, we show that income inequality and the risk of poverty increase with growth, implying that the benefits of growth, and burdens of recession, are distributed unequally among members of the Greek society. Moreover, inequality appears to increase with unemployment and decrease with the share of wages and salaries in total income. This finding highlights the importance of labour market regulations and workers’ welfare for attaining equality. Finally, we provide evidence that, during pre-election periods, income inequality is reduced, meaning that the political budget cycles, which are characteristic of the Greek economy, generate gains in terms of equality, but these gains are short-lived and mainly benefit the middle bracket of the income distribution.

The present study identifies economic, political, and institutional variables that influence the distribution of personal incomes in the Eurozone countries facing severe fiscal imbalances, namely Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Crucially, this paper is the first to investigate the effect of the corrective arm of the Stability and Growth Pact, the so-called Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), on the income distribution of the aforementioned economies, where EDP was imposed over a long time period. The empirical results of this study show that (i) EDP impact depends on the specific mix of policy measures undertaken and that (ii) a high public debt does not reflect the existence of common factors shaping income distribution in the four Southern European economies. The share of labor income in total income, constitutes a significant determinant of income inequality. However, we find that the relationship between labor share and income inequality is also country-specific, depending on the intrinsic characteristics of each individual economic system.

Building on the well-established relationship between economic dynamics and political processes, we focus on the most important element of the political process, namely, general (or national) elections, and look into their effects on public finance and total economic output. In this vein, the present study has three objectives: (i) to investigate political budget cycles in Greece during the period known as the ‘Third Hellenic Republic’ (in Greek, ‘Metapolitefsi’, hereafter THR) since 1974; (ii) to assess whether national elections affect total economic activity in a stabilizing or destabilizing way; and (iii) to examine the possible effects of the external sector of the economy on the budget balance. The empirical findings of our analysis document how the Greek economy was characterized by sharp political budget cycles in correspondence with the THR, exerting a destabilizing effect on the total output of the economy. Performances of the external sector of the economy have significantly affected budget balances in Greece.