Francisca Castro

At a time when the influence of external cues on opinion formation is gaining attention due to their relevance for preference formation, this research note investigates how external cues from political elites and close friends shape individual policy preferences. Building on prior studies by Barber and Pope (2019, 2024) regarding Donald Trump's impact on people's policy preferences during his 2017–2021 presidency, we examine whether this influence persists soon after Trump's first presidential tenure concludes in late 2021 through a survey experiment. We also assess the influence of a second external cue that has gained attention due to the growing role of social media in political processes: a close friend, who might also serve as a relevant figure for policy position formation. We find that Trump's liberal cues shift Republican preferences in a liberal direction, while close friend cues show diverse patterns, including some backlash effects where individuals adopt positions opposite to conservative friend advocacy. These effects vary with individuals' party identification, political knowledge, and social conformity levels. Individual characteristics moderate political elite influence, while peer influence operates through reactance mechanisms rather than conformity, revealing that social networks shape opinions through more complex pathways than commonly theorized.

State repression's effect on protest behavior is theorized to depend on two key dimensions: its severity (level of harm imposed) and selectivity (whether targeted or indiscriminate). While scholars have developed sophisticated theoretical frameworks around these dimensions, most empirical evidence comes from authoritarian contexts. Moreover, we lack systematic evidence about how specific combinations of severity and selectivity influence protest dynamics. Using data from Chile's 2019 protest cycle, I examine how different tactical combinations shape subsequent mobilization. Through models accounting for spatial dynamics and temporal effects, I find patterns that challenge theoretical expectations. Contrary to predictions, selective high-severity tactics generated short-term mobilization rather than deterrence, while low-severity tactics produced significant protest increases regardless of their selectivity. Survey evidence reveals that these effects operated partly through public attitudes. These findings demonstrate the need to revise theoretical frameworks around severity and selectivity, particularly in democratic contexts.

Does mass emigration encourage or undermine protests? Emigration, being a personal decision made by households, can potentially aggregate into a collective expression of discontent against the prevailing status quo. In this paper, we focus on whether large-scale emigration influences protest support and participation. Using a survey experiment conducted in Honduras, we assess how emigration’s salience affected public opinion about anti-government demonstrations in 2021. Our findings reveal that respondents primed with information about migration expressed more favorable opinions toward protests, although their participation in demonstrations was unaffected. This study contributes to a better understanding of the link between emigration and public opinion for those who stay in their origin country, and also its limitations to mobilizing for change during periods of political turmoil.

Can protest occurrence prompt changes in electoral behavior? In this research, we examine variation in trajectories of voter turnout and electoral preferences at the local level after a protest cycle. Using local data on protests occurrence during the 2019 mobilizations in Chile and Bolivia, we assess the impact that street demonstrations had on voting behavior in the elections that took place in 2020. Through a difference-in-differences approach, we find that political participation increased in the localities that experienced protest, compared to ones that did not develop contentious activities. Conversely, there was no variation in electoral preferences measured through the vote for the incumbent party. We argue that these results can be explained by an increase in political efficacy, and by an absence of a signaling effect of protests. Reflecting on which type of protests are most likely to generate electoral changes, our results offer additional evidence regarding the scope of influence of destabilizing protests in democratic countries.

Erica Chenoweth’s latest book Civil Resistance. What Everyone Needs to Know offers a detailed and approachable insight into civil resistance, representing the pinnacle of their work on the use of v...

Emerging research on the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic draws attention to the labor effects of the crisis in the Global South. Developing countries show high levels of labor informality, where most workers cannot work from home and depend on daily income. In addition, the scarce and late state aid makes it difficult for workers to cope with the economic hardships caused by the pandemic. This research explores the employment trajectories of workers throughout the ongoing pandemic in Chile: a neoliberal country with a strong male breadwinner culture and high levels of income inequality. Using longitudinal non-probabilistic data for Chilean employment, this study finds that men lost their jobs to a lesser extent and returned to the labor market faster than women. Likewise, male workers with family (with a partner and young children) remained employed in a higher proportion than female workers with family, and most of these women shifted from employment into care work. The existing literature already pointed out how economic crises can have adverse effects on progress towards gender equality, and the current economic crisis seems to be no exception. Labor informality and low-skilled jobs were highly related to unemployment during the first months of COVID in Chile. These are important variables in a developing economy such as Chile, where around one-third of the population works under these conditions. This article concludes by reflecting on the importance of addressing the present crisis and future economic recovery with a gender perspective.