Ivan Mijanović

After 2000, Montenegro has been hit by several severe droughts. The results presented in this study were based on the analysis of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the period 1961–2020. They showed the prevalence of a negative trend in both indices and a significantly higher frequency of drought in the second half of the observed period (1991–2020). The SPEI index is a more representative indicator of drought, because in addition to precipitation, it also takes into account potential evapotranspiration. Using the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method, it was determined that the tipping point when the SPEI suddenly fell was the mid-1980s. Out of the 15 analyzed teleconnection variation indicators (atmospheric and oceanic oscillations), 11 oscillations have a significant impact on one or more of the 24 analyzed SPEI time series. The consequences of the drought in Montenegro, as part of the Mediterranean, are most noticeable in the summer, primarily in the form of water shortages, dried vegetation, and frequent fires. Decision-makers in Montenegro should pay attention to this extreme, as drought could pose a serious problem under the projected warmer climate conditions.

Ourism in Montenegro represents a vital component of the national economy, contributing significantly to its gross domestic product (GDP). Recognized as one of the key sectors, this country on the Adriatic Sea annually attracts millions of tourists from various parts of the world. Thanks to its unique combination of natural beauty, cultural heritage, and favorable climate, Montenegro has established itself as a popular destination for various types of tourism. Statistical data shows that the number of tourists in Montenegro has been steadily increasing over the past decades. Particularly significant growth has been recorded in the international tourism segment. The majority of tourists come from European countries, with a special emphasis on visitors from Russia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and European Union countries. The diversity of offerings, from sunny beaches to mountain resorts, attracts various groups of tourists, significantly extending the tourist season. Since 1980, OECD experts have set up a strategic development matrix for Montenegro with three main pillars: tourism (today they would likely add sustainable tourism), predominantly rural and interconnected agriculture (today we might add organic food production), and industry, particularly small businesses catering to tourism and local needs (today they might include clean industry organized by Small and Medium-sized Enterprises—SMEs). We believe these are three robust strategic pillars interconnected by tourism, which should be Montenegro’s strategic development priority. In Montenegro, in 2021, there were 1,670,879 tourist arrivals and 9,872,573 overnight stays. Comparing these figures to 2019, there was a decrease of 36.8% in tourist arrivals and 31.7% in overnight stays. In comparison to 2020, which was significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2021 there was an increase of 276.3% in tourist arrivals and 281.6% in overnight stays. It can be noted that there was a noticeable recovery in the tourism sector in 2021; however, this recovery did not reach the levels of 2019. Estimates suggest that tourism will contribute around one billion euros to the gross domestic product in 2022, so the “gray zone” should be sought between actual revenue and estimated contributions. Essential to this is the quality reconstruction and development of basic accommodation capacities, additional tourist superstructure and infrastructure, and market repositioning towards major tourist sources in Europe. Achieving better results in the tourism sector requires diversification of products and services.

The population by nationality in Montenegro cannot be tracked in the first half of the 20th century, specifically until the census conducted after World War II. In the censuses of 1921 and 1931, the population was not categorized by nationality, but only by religion, language, and similar characteristics. Additionally, for comparing the population by national groups, the 1961 Census is the most suitable starting point, as it allows tracking the most numerous national groups according to the 2011 Census of population, households, and dwellings. For example, according to the 1953 Census, almost 2% of Montenegro’s population identified as Yugoslavs, while there were no inhabitants who identified as Muslims, a significant national group in Montenegro that began to officially declare themselves as such starting from 1961. The 2011 Census in Montenegro revealed a population of approximately 625,000 people, with 45% identifying as Montenegrins, 28% as Serbs, about 9% as Bosnians, 5% as Albanians, and 1% as Croats. The results indicate that the Montenegrin population is growing, while the number of Serbs has decreased. The largest group is Montenegrins at 45%, while Serbs make up 29%, showing an increase of 2% in those identifying as Montenegrins and a decrease of over 3% in those identifying as Serbs compared to the 2003 census. The proportion of Serbs in Montenegro increased significantly from 3.3% in 1981 to nearly 33% in 2003. In 2011, slightly under 43% of Montenegrin citizens spoke Serbian, whereas nearly 37% spoke Montenegrin. This reflects a 20% decrease in the proportion of citizens listing Serbian as their mother tongue since 2003, alongside a corresponding increase in those speaking Montenegrin. Despite this trend, 6% more citizens still speak Serbian. The 2023 census results show that 38% of the population identifies as Serbs, and around 52% speak Serbian as their mother tongue. This is a significantly higher percentage compared to the 2011 census. On the other hand, it suggests that the number of those identifying as Montenegrins decreased compared to the 2011 data when 43% of the citizens identified as Montenegrins. By religion, Montenegrin citizens are divided into: 72% Orthodox, 19% Muslim, and 3.5% Catholic. The remaining and atheist individuals each make up a little over one percent.

Lake Skadar on the Balkan Peninsula faces many ecological challenges. The lake is located in the border area between Mon-tenegro and Albania and its ecosystem interacts with important and highly populated urban centres such as Podgorica and Bar. Despite the crucial role the lake plays in the sustainability of the ecosystem and the health of the population, there is a lack of environmental quality assessment and data-based analysis. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess both the wa-ter quality of Lake Skadar and the air pollution in Podgorica and Bar in the period from 2011 to 2018. To assess water qual-ity, the Water Quality Index (WQI) model, i.e. the SWQI method, was used, which was calculated based on 10 parameters of physicochemical and microbiological characteristics of water from 9 hydrological stations (oxygen saturation, biochemical oxygen consumption for 5 days, ammonium ions, pH, total nitrogen oxides, orthophosphates, suspended solids, tempera-ture, electrical conductivity and coliform bacteria). In addition, air quality in the two cities was assessed using timeseries of PM10 concentrations. The results showed that the water quality of Lake Skadar was of good to high quality (WQI 79-95), while the air quality in Podgorica and Bar was a serious public health problem, especially in the cold seasons in Podgorica (i.e. the average seasonal and daily PM10 concentrations were often > 40 and > 50 µg/m3). These results are of great practi-cal importance for environmental management and support decision makers in applying certain environmental protection measures and strategies.

The aim of the study was to gather information necessary for the examination of the river Ćehotina water quality as well as the air pollution in the urban area of Pljevlja (far north of Montenegro), from 2011 until 2018. The water quality of the Ćehotina River was observed by the Water Quality Index (WQI) method, based on ten physicochemical and microbiological parameters from five hydrological stations. In order to examine the air quality, we used data on the concentration of the PM₁₀ particles from the station located in the center of Pljevlja. The obtained results of river water quality indicate that the situation was disturbing (bad quality dominates). The results of the air quality analysis indicate that the situation has been alarming and Pljevlja itself as a “hot spot” of Montenegro. Annual, seasonal and daily mean concentrations of PM₁₀ particles were above the prescribed limit values, except during summer. Sources of pollution were mostly known, and in order to protect public health, it is necessary to take appropriate measures as soon as possible, primarily the introduction of modern exhaust gas treatment technology TPP ‘‘Pljevlja’’ and construction of a heating plant that would replace numerous individual (home) fireplaces in Pljevlja.

The aim of the research of this paper is changes in air temperature and precipitation in the north of Montenegro in the instrumental period (1951-2018) and projections up to 2100. Kolasin was chosen because the altitude of the place is the average height of the northern region of Montenegro (about 1000 m), the meteorological station has not changed its location since the beginning of instrumental measurements, and homogeneity was tested (for the instrumental period). In general, the climate of Kolasin (1951-2018) has become warmer and with more frequent extreme daily temperatures and precipitations in an upward trend. When it comes to the projections for the north of this Mediterranean country, according to the A1B scenario of the Regional Climate Model EBU?POM, the results indicate warmer conditions and very warm ones at the end of the 21st century. The projected reduction of the annual number of almost all the considered rainfall days also implies that a slightly more arid future is expected. The climate of the mountainous north of Montenegro is changing, and the results presented in this paper may serve decision makers to take some measures of adaptation (in tourism, agriculture, architecture, water management, etc.) and climate change mitigation.