Maeve Madigan

A bstract: We present a detailed mathematical study of the Monte Carlo replica method as applied in the global fitting literature from the high-energy physics theory community. For the first time, we provide a rigorous derivation of the parameter distributions implied by the method, and show that, whilst they agree with Bayesian posteriors for linear models, they disagree otherwise. We proceed to numerically quantify the disagreement between the Monte Carlo replica method and the Bayesian method in the context of two phenomenologically relevant scenarios: fits of the SMEFT Wilson coefficients, and fits of PDFs (albeit in a toy scenario). In both scenarios, we find that uncertainty estimates of the quantities of interest are discrepant between the two approaches when non-linearity is relevant. Our findings motivate future investigation of Bayesian methodologies for global PDF fits, especially in the context of simultaneous determination of PDFs and SMEFT Wilson coefficients.

Due to the pseudo-scalar nature of the axion-like particle (ALP), the CP-conserving production of two Higgs bosons via the ALP necessarily involves an additional Z or γ boson. We examine the existing constraints from di-Higgs searches at Run 2 of the LHC and find that, despite the presence of extra objects in the final state, these searches are sensitive to a combination of ALP couplings to gluons and three-bosons in the TeV scale range. Additionally, we propose a specialized search strategy incorporating an energetic leptonic Z boson. This refined ALP-induced production process would allow for the identification of the h h → 4 b-jet final state and could potentially probe the TeV scale using data from Run 2 of the LHC. This production process can also occur through a coupling between the top quark and the ALP. We translate the current constraints on di-Higgs production into new limits on the ALP-top coupling.

We present the open-source code, designed to fit Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) Wilson coefficient alongside Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the proton. can perform SMEFT global fits, as well as simultaneous fits of the PDFs and of an arbitrarily large number of SMEFT degrees of freedom, by including both PDF-dependent and PDF-independent observables. can also be used to determine whether the effects of any New Physics models can be fitted away in a global fit of PDFs. is built upon the open-source code and is released together with documentation, and tutorials. To illustrate the functionalities of the new tool, we present a new global analysis of the SMEFT Wilson coefficients accounting for their interplay with the PDFs. We increment our previous analysis of the LHC Run II top quark data with both (i) the Higgs production and decay rates data from the LHC, and (ii) the precision electroweak and diboson measurements from LEP and the LHC.

We present a detailed mathematical study of the Monte Carlo replica method as applied in the global fitting literature from the high-energy physics theory community. For the first time, we provide a rigorous derivation of the parameter distributions implied by the method, and show that, whilst they agree with Bayesian posteriors for linear models, they disagree otherwise. We proceed to numerically quantify the disagreement between the Monte Carlo replica method and the Bayesian method in the context of two phenomenologically relevant scenarios: fits of the SMEFT Wilson coefficients, and fits of PDFs (albeit in a toy scenario). In both scenarios, we find that uncertainty estimates of the quantities of interest are discrepant between the two approaches when non-linearity is relevant. Our findings motivate future investigation of Bayesian methodologies for global PDF fits, especially in the context of simultaneous determination of PDFs and SMEFT Wilson coefficients.

We present the open-source SIMUnet code, designed to fit Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) Wilson coefficient alongside Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the proton. SIMUnet can perform SMEFT global fits, as well as simultaneous fits of the PDFs and of an arbitrarily large number of SMEFT degrees of freedom, by including both PDF-dependent and PDF-independent observables. SIMUnet can also be used to determine whether the effects of any New Physics models can be fitted away in a global fit of PDFs. SIMUnet is built upon the open-source NNPDF code and is released together with documentation, and tutorials. To illustrate the functionalities of the new tool, we present a new global analysis of the SMEFT Wilson coefficients accounting for their interplay with the PDFs. We increment our previous analysis of the LHC Run II top quark data with both (i) the Higgs production and decay rates data from the LHC, and (ii) the precision electroweak and diboson measurements from LEP and the LHC.

The role of the Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) is crucial not only in the precise determination of Standard Model parameters, but also in the interpretation of new physics searches at the LHC. In this talk we show the potential of global PDF analyses to inadvertently ‘fit away’ signs of new physics, by identifying specific scenarios in which the PDFs may completely absorb signs of new physics, thus biassing theoretical predictions. At the same time, we discuss several strategies to single out and disentangle such effects.

The interpretation of LHC data, and the assessment of possible hints of new physics, require the precise knowledge of the proton structure in terms of parton distribution functions (PDFs). We present a systematic methodology designed to determine whether and how global PDF fits might inadvertently 'fit away' signs of new physics in the high-energy tails of the distributions. We showcase a scenario for the High-Luminosity LHC, in which the PDFs may completely absorb such signs of new physics, thus biasing theoretical predictions and interpretations. We discuss strategies to single out the effects in this scenario, and disentangle the inconsistencies that stem from them. Our study brings to light the synergy between the high luminosity programme at the LHC and future low-energy non-LHC measurements of large-$x$ sea quark distributions. The analysis code used in this work is made public so that any users can test the robustness of the signal associated to a given BSM model against absorption by the PDFs.

The interpretation of LHC data, and the assessment of possible hints of new physics, require the precise knowledge of the proton structure in terms of parton distribution functions (PDFs). We present a systematic methodology designed to determine whether and how global PDF fits might inadvertently ‘fit away’ signs of new physics in the high-energy tails of the distributions. We showcase a scenario for the High-Luminosity LHC, in which the PDFs may completely absorb such signs of new physics, thus biasing theoretical predictions and interpretations. We discuss strategies to single out the effects in this scenario, and disentangle the inconsistencies that stem from them. Our study brings to light the synergy between the high luminosity programme at the LHC and future low-energy non-LHC measurements of large-x sea quark distributions. The analysis code used in this work is made public so that any users can test the robustness of the signal associated to a given BSM model against absorption by the PDFs.

In this paper we explore the coupling of a light axion-like particle (ALP) to top quarks. We use high-energy LHC probes, and examine both the direct probe to this coupling in associated production of a top-pair with an ALP, and the indirect probe through loop-induced gluon fusion to an ALP leading to top pairs. Using the latest LHC Run II data, we provide the best limit on this coupling. We also compare these limits with those obtained from loop-induced couplings in diboson final states, finding that the $t\bar t$+MET channel is the best current handle on this coupling.