Muhammad Usman

Natural ecosystems are facing threats from natural and anthropogenic stressors. Wetlands are among the most delicate natural ecosystems and are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of urbanization. One of the intended purposes of the wetlands is to mitigate the impact of urbanization (e.g., stormwater), but we often lack a comprehensive understanding of their capacity in doing so. Determination of water balance is essential in understanding the efficacy of a wetland when it comes to treating excess stormwater. This study therefore considers the Sparrovale Wetland in Victoria, Australia, to assess its performance in mitigating the impacts of urbanization in the surrounding catchment areas. A 1D model (HYDRUS-1D) was previously developed by the authors based on extensive field and laboratory measurements on one side (north) of the wetland. It was crucial to understand the two-dimensional water balance dynamics in the Sparrovale Wetland to utilize its full potential for managing excessive stormwater. This study therefore employed the HYDRUS-2D model (based on HYDRUS-1D) supported by extended, spatially explicit in situ measurements. The model was run (with additional input of inflow added to the rainfall) on the average Van Genuchten parameters obtained from the previously developed HYDRUS-1D model and the extended determination of the parameters. The model performance in simulating measured water content was good for both the south (average RMSE = 0.013 m³/m³) and the north side (average RMSE = 0.028 m³/m³). The model was also used to simulate surface water levels in the wetland and showed a good agreement (RMSE = 0.1 m AHD and R² = 0.72) with in situ surface water level measurements. This developed model was used to determine the water balance dynamics (infiltration, evapotranspiration, soil water storage, surface and bottom boundary flux) in the Sparrovale Wetland. Our results indicate that evapotranspiration is the major factor controlling the water flux losses in the Sparrovale Wetland, while the role of infiltration was minimal, which might be attributed to the dominant soil type (clay) and shallow groundwater levels in the Sparrovale Wetland. Insights provided by this study might be helpful in optimizing the performance of the Sparrovale Wetland in managing the excess stormwater arising from the surrounding catchments.

The impacts of land use on stormwater runoff quality and Best Management Practices to mitigate these impacts have been investigated since the 1970s, yet challenges remain in providing a modeling approach that concomitantly considers contributions from different land use types. In densely developed urban areas, a buildup/washoff approach is often applied, while in rural areas, some type of erosion modeling is employed, as the processes of detachment, entrainment, and transport are fundamentally different. This study presents a coupled modeling approach within PCSWMM, integrating exponential buildup/washoff for impervious surfaces with the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) for pervious areas, including construction sites, to characterize water quality in the large mixed urban–rural Sparrovale catchment in Geelong, Australia. The watershed includes an innovative cascading system of 12 online NbS wetlands along one of the main tributaries, Armstrong Creek, to manage runoff quantity and quality, as well as 16 offline NbS wetlands that are tributary to the online system. A total of 78 samples for Total Suspended Solids (TSS), Total Phosphorus (TP), and Total Nitrogen (TN) were collected from six monitoring sites along Armstrong Creek during wet- and dry-weather events between May and July 2024 for model validation. The data were supplemented with six other catchment stormwater quality datasets collected during earlier studies, which provided an understanding of water quality status for the broader Geelong region. Results showed that average nutrient concentrations across all the sites ranged from 0.44 to 2.66 mg/L for TP and 0.69 to 5.7 mg/L for TN, spanning from within to above the ecological threshold ranges for eutrophication risk (TP: 0.042 to 1 mg/L, TN: 0.3 to 1.5 mg/L). In the study catchment, upstream wetlands reduced pollutant levels; however, downstream wetlands that received runoff from agriculture, residential areas, and, importantly, construction sites, showed a substantial increase in sediment and nutrient concentration. Water quality modeling revealed washoff parameters primarily influenced concentrations from established urban neighborhoods, whereas erosion parameters substantially impacted total pollutant loads for the larger system, demonstrating the importance of integrated modeling for capturing pollutant dynamics in heterogeneous, urbanizing catchments. The study results emphasize the need for spatially targeted management strategies to improve stormwater runoff quality and also show the potential for cascading wetlands to be an important element of the Nature-based Solution (NbS) runoff management system.

Soil moisture plays a key role in the critical zone of the Earth and has extensive value in the understanding of hydrological, agricultural, and environmental processes (among others). Long-term (in situ) monitoring of soil moisture measurements is generally not practical; however, short-term measurements are often found. Limited soil moisture measurements can be employed to develop a numerical model for long-term and accurate soil moisture estimations. A key input variable to the model is precipitation, which is also not easily accessible, particularly at a finer spatial resolution; hence, publicly available remote sensing data can be used as an alternative. This study, therefore, aims to develop a numerical model HYDRUS-1D to estimate soil moisture in the data-scarce state of the Northern Territory, Australia, with a land cover of shrubland and a Tropical-Savannah type climate. The HDYRUS-1D is based on the numerical solution of Richards’ equation of variably saturated flow that relies on information about the soil water retention characteristics. This study utilized the van Genuchten model parameters, which were optimized (against measured soil moisture) through parameter optimization with initial estimates obtained from the HYDRUS catalogue. Initial estimates from different sources can differ for the same soil texture (e.g., loamy sand) and can induce uncertainties in the calibrated model. Therefore, a comprehensive uncertainty analysis was conducted to address potential uncertainties in the calibration process. The HYDRUS-1D was calibrated for a period between March 2012 and February 2013 and was independently validated against three different periods between March 2013 and October 2016. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were used to assess the efficiency of the model in simulating the measured soil moisture. The model exhibited good performance in replicating measured soil moisture during calibration (RMSE = 0.00 m³/m³, MAE = 0.005 m³/m³, and R = 0.70), during validation period 1 (RMSE = 0.035 m³/m³ and MAE = 0.023 m³/m³, and R = 0.72), validation period 2 (RMSE = 0.054 m³/m³ and MAE = 0.039 m³/m³, and R = 0.51), and validation period 3 (RMSE = 0.046 m³/m³ and MAE = 0.032 m³/m³, and R = 0.61), respectively. Remotely sensed precipitation data were used from the CHRS-PERSIANN, CHRS-CCS, and CHRS-PDIR-Now to assess their capabilities in estimating soil moisture. Efficiency evaluation metrics and visual assessment revealed that these products underestimated the soil moisture. The CHRS-CCS outperformed other products in terms of overall efficiency (average RMSE of 0.040 m³/m³, average MAE of 0.023 m³/m³, and an average R of 0.68, respectively). An integrated approach based on numerical modelling and remote sensing employed in this study can help understand the long-term dynamics of soil moisture and soil water balance in the Northern Territory, Australia.

This study employs HYDRUS-1D for modelling the vadose zone processes in a shallow groundwater wetland. HYDRUS-1D is based on Richards equation whose numerical solution heavily relies on reliable data derived from soil water retention curves. This modelling was supported by extensive field and laboratory measurements. Both disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were collected at the four depths for determination of particle size distribution, bulk density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and saturated water content. The van Genuchten retention curves were used to describe the relationship between pressure head and water content; model parameters were optimized through inverse modelling with initial estimates of residual water content, shape parameters (α and n) obtained from ROSETTA model 3 (provided in HYDRUS-1D) and saturated water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity, determined from laboratory tests. Independent measurements of soil moisture and soil tension measured both in the field and laboratory fit well with the water retention curve obtained from the optimized ROSETTA parameters. Model performance in simulating measured water contents was good (average RMSE = 0.02 m³/m³) during calibration and validation (0.01 m³/m³ and 0.03 m³/m³ for two independent periods). Water content in upper soil layers was strongly influenced by atmospheric conditions, while groundwater level has the most influence in the bottom layers. Evapotranspiration was found out to be the dominant process in summer with total flux higher than that of infiltration while in winter evapotranspiration was relatively lower, even though still higher than infiltration.

Rapid suburbanization can alter catchment flow regime and increase stormwater runoff, posing threats to sensitive ecosystems. Applications of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have increasingly been adopted as part of integrated water management efforts to tackle the hydrological impact of urbanization with co-benefits for improved urban resilience, sustainability, and community well-being. However, the implementation of NbS can be hindered by gaps in performance assessment. This paper introduces a physically based dynamic modeling approach to assess the performance of a nature-based storage facility designed to capture excess runoff from an urbanizing catchment (Armstrong Creek catchment) in Geelong, Australia. The study adopts a numerical modelling approach, supported by extensive field monitoring of water levels over a 2.5-year period. The model provides a decision support tool for Geelong local government in managing stormwater runoff to protect Lake Connewarre, a Ramsar-listed wetland under the Port Phillip Bay (Western Shoreline) and Bellarine Peninsula. Runoff is currently managed via a set of operating rules governing gate operations that prevents flows into the ecological sensitive downstream waterbody from December to April (drier periods in summer and most of autumn). Comparison with observed water level data at three monitoring stations for a continuous simulation period of May 2022 to October 2024 demonstrates satisfactory to excellent model performance (NSE: 0.55–0.79, R²: 0.80–0.89, ISE rating: excellent). Between 1670 × 10³ m³ and 2770 × 10³ m³ of runoff was intercepted by the nature-based storage facility, representing a 56–70% reduction in stormwater discharge into Lake Connewarre. Our model development underscores the importance of understanding and incorporating user interventions (gate operations and emergency pumping) from the standard operation plan to better manage catchment runoff. As revealed by the seasonal flow analysis for consecutive years, adaptive runoff management practices, capable of responding to rainfall variability, should be incorporated.

Surface water plays an important role in understanding the hydrological behaviour of a wetland and is crucial for the sustainability of wetland ecosystems. Remote sensing increasingly is used for the estimation of surface water levels in larger inland waterbodies. However, there are few investigations that have employed multi-sourced remote sensing data for water level predictions in wetlands, which was the motivation for undertaking this study. Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 are among the latest satellites providing optical imagery with high spatial resolution and coverage that are available in the public domain. Different water indices have been applied to estimate surface water levels using these satellite image sources; however, what index to use for a particular application requires thorough, site-specific analysis. In this study, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), two versions of the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and the Water Ratio Index (WRI) were used to estimate water levels in a constructed wetland, as part of an effort to better guide regulation and decision-making for a local management agency. The satellite data were complemented with high resolution aerial photogrammetric images and LiDAR data to assess the accuracy of water level predictions provided by the satellite images. The photogrammetric images were used as reference datasets while the LiDAR data supported the development of area-elevation curves for the wetland. Accuracy assessment between the satellite and reference images was performed using the Kappa co-efficient (K). MNDWI performed better than the other water indices for both satellite data sources; however, the optimum threshold was different for each satellite (− 0.35 for Sentinel-2 and − 0.25 for Landsat-8). K values for the optimum threshold ranged between 0.72 and 0.77 for Sentinel-2 and 0.73 and 0.87 for Landsat-8. The water levels estimated using the remotely sensed data were assessed against in situ, continuously measured water levels using multiple efficiency evaluation metrics including R², RMSE, and SSE. Estimated water levels with Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 resulted in an R² of 0.86 and 0.88, RMSE of 0.04 m and 0.06 m, and an SSE of 0.02 m and 0.06 m, respectively. These results show that even for a small wetland, it is possible to use satellite imagery to estimate water levels with high accuracy.

Understanding how droughts are characterized, propagated, and projected, particularly multivariate droughts, is necessary to explain the variability and changes in drought characteristics. This study aims to understand multimodel global drought monitoring, propagation, and projection by utilizing a multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) during the historical (1959–2014) and future (2045–2100) periods under two socioeconomic pathways SSPs (370 and 585), derived from the bias‐corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Based on the energy metrics, the multivariate bias correction method outperformed other techniques in correcting the biases in the CMIP6 drought representation. The drought indicators demonstrate distinct categories for meteorological, hydrological, and multivariate droughts. There were significant high cross correlations between Heatwave Total Length (HWTL) and MSDI in Africa and South America for all lagged times. Europe and North America generally saw the maximum MSDI drought duration (228 months) during the historical period. For future projections, Africa recorded the maximum drought duration (197 months), while Europe witnessed the minimum drought duration for SSP 370 (171 months), and North America (149 months) for SSP 585. Furthermore, during the historical period in tropical Africa, the propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought was slower during the wet months than during the dry months. Under the SSP 370 future projection, there was a shift in the long period of meteorological‐hydrological propagation from the middle and late wet months to the beginning of the wet months in tropical Africa. Therefore, tracking and projecting drought characteristics is vital for understanding the risk of drought‐related consequences.

This work evaluates the suitability of linear scaling (LS) and empirical quantile mapping (EQM) bias correction methods to generate present and future hydrometeorological variables (precipitation, temperature, and streamflow) over the Chitral River Basin, in the Hindukush region of Pakistan. In particular, LS and EQM are applied to correct the high-resolution statistically downscaled dataset, NEX-GDDP, which comprises 21 state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5). Raw and bias-corrected NEX-GDDP simulations are used to force the (previously calibrated and validated) HBV-light hydrological model to generate long-term (up to 2100) streamflow projections over the catchment. Our results indicate that using the raw NEX-GDDP leads to substantial errors (as compared to observations) in the mean and extreme streamflow regimes. Nevertheless, the application of LS and EQM solves these problems, yielding much more realistic and plausible streamflow projections for the XXI century.

Management of the freshwater resources in a sustained manner requires the information and understanding of the surface water hydrology and streamflow is of key importance in this nexus. This study evaluates the performance of eight different precipitation products (APHRODITE, CHRS CCS, CHRS CDR, CHIRPS, CPC Global, GPCC, GPCP, and PERSIANN) for streamflow prediction in two sub-catchments (Chirah and Dhoke Pathan) of the data-scarce Soan River Basin (SRB) in Pakistan. A modified version of the hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) known as HBV-light was used to generate streamflow. The model was separately calibrated and validated with observed and estimated precipitation data for streamflow simulation with optimized parameterization. The values of R², NSE, KGE and PBIAS obtained during the calibration (validation) period for the Chirah sub-catchment were 0.64, 0.64, 0.68 and −5.6% (0.82, 0.81, 0.88 and 7.4%). On the other hand, values of R², NSE, KGE, and PBIAS obtained during the calibration (validation) period for the Dhoke Pathan sub-catchment were 0.85, 0.85, 0.87, and −3.4% (0.82, 0.7, 0.73 and 6.9%). Different ranges of values were assigned to multiple efficiency evaluation metrics and the performance of precipitation products was assessed. Generally, we found that the performance of the precipitation products was improved (higher metrics values) with increasing temporal and spatial scale. However, our results showed that APHRODITE was the only precipitation product that outperformed other products in simulating observed streamflow at both temporal scales for both Chirah and Dhoke Pathan sub-catchments. These results suggest that with the long-term availability of continuous precipitation records with fine temporal and spatial resolutions, APHRODITE has the high potential to be used for streamflow prediction in this semi-arid river basin. Other products that performed better were GPCC, GPCP, and CHRS CCS; however, their scope was limited either to one catchment or a specific time scale. These results will also help better understand surface water hydrology and in turn, would be useful for better management of the water resources.