Xiuping Yi

Based on the downscaling data of multi-model ensembles of 26 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, this study calculated the extreme climate indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and the warm winter extreme grade indices to explore winter climate response on the Chinese mainland under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways. The results showed that the temperature in winter increased overall, with the highest temperature increases of 0.31 °C/10a (Celsius per decade) (SSP245) and 0.51 °C/10a (SSP585) and the lowest temperature increases of 0.30 °C/10a (SSP245) and 0.49 °C/10a (SSP585). Warm-related extreme weather events such as warm days and warm spell duration indices showed an increasing trend, whereas cold-related extreme weather events such as cold spell duration indices, cold nights, ice days, and frost days showed a decreasing trend. On the regional scale, the maximum temperature increased by more than 2 °C/10a (SSP245) and 0.4 °C/10a (SSP585), except in South China, and the minimum temperature increased faster in Qinghai-Tibet and Northeast China compared to elsewhere on the Chinese mainland. Compared with that under SSP585, the frequency and intensity of warm winters in the latter half of the 21st century were lower under SSP245. At the end of the 21st century, under the SSP245 scenario, warm winter frequency in most regions will be reduced to below 60%, but under the SSP585 scenario, it will be more than 80%. Population exposures all showed a downward trend, mainly due to the reduction of warm winter events and the decline of the population under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. If the greenhouse gas emission path is controlled in the SSP245 scenario, the population exposure risk in warm winters can be decreased by 25.87%. This study observed a consistent warming trend on the Chinese mainland under all SSPs in the 21st century and found that stricter emission reduction policies can effectively decrease the population exposure to warm winters.

The Yellow River Basin (YLRB) and Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) are heavily populated, important grain-producing areas in China, and they are sensitive to climate change. In order to study the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme climate events in the two river basins, seven extreme temperature indices and seven extreme precipitation indices were projected for the periods of 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 using data from 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and the delta change and reliability ensemble averaging (REA) methods were applied to obtain more robust ensemble values. First, the present evaluation indicated that the simulations satisfactorily reproduced the spatial distribution of temperature extremes, and the spatial distribution of precipitation extremes was generally suitably captured. Next, the REA values were adopted to conduct projections under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in the 21st century. Warming extremes were projected to increase while cold events were projected to decrease, particularly on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, the Loess Plateau, and the lower reaches of the YZRB. In addition, the number of wet days (CWD) was projected to decrease in most regions of the two basins, but the highest five-day precipitation (Rx5day) and precipitation intensity (SDII) index values were projected to increase in the YZRB. The number of consecutive dry days (CDD) was projected to decrease in the northern and western regions of the two basins. Specifically, the warming trends in the two basins were correlated with altitude and atmospheric circulation patterns, and the wetting trends were related to the atmospheric water vapor content increases in summer and the strength of external radiative forcing. Notably, the magnitude of the changes in the extreme climate events was projected to increase with increasing warming targets, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario.