Sedar Olmez

Agent-based modelling (ABM) has revolutionised the simulation of complex systems, finding applications in diverse fields such as economic markets and traffic management. By modelling individuals as autonomous agents within a dynamic environment, ABM enables the exploration of system behaviours and the evaluation of interventions at various spatiotemporal resolutions. However, the computational intensity of ABM, particularly in large-scale simulations, remains a significant hurdle. This paper presents a novel approach to addressing these challenges through the development of a GPU-accelerated transport model, specifically applied to a road network. Utilising the FLAME-GPU framework, the proposed model demonstrates enhanced scalability and efficiency compared with traditional CPU-based simulations, such as Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO). Through rigorous comparative analysis, this study highlights significant improvements in simulation speed and the capacity to manage larger vehicle populations. The research underscores the transformative potential of GPU acceleration in mitigating computational constraints within ABM, offering a practical framework for simulating transport systems with greater precision and depth. Extensive experimentation validates the model’s ability to realistically simulate the vehicle population of the Isle of Wight, achieving a balance between computational efficiency and the accurate representation of complex traffic dynamics.

This research presents a novel Discrete Event Simulation (DES) of the Lloyd's of London specialty insurance market, exploring complex market dynamics that have not been previously studied quantitatively. The proof-of-concept model allows for the simulation of various scenarios that capture important market phenomena such as the underwriting cycle, the impact of risk syndication, and the importance of appropriate exposure management. Despite minimal calibration, our model has shown that it is a valuable tool for understanding and analysing the Lloyd's of London specialty insurance market, particularly in terms of identifying areas for further investigation for regulators and participants of the market alike. The results generate the expected behaviours that, syndicates (insurers) are less likely to go insolvent if they adopt sophisticated exposure management practices, catastrophe events lead to more defined patterns of cyclicality and cause syndicates to substantially increase their premiums offered. Lastly, the syndication of risk via the lead and follow structure lead to less volatile and more coupled loss experiences among syndicates demonstrating that Lloyd's of London's regulatory market structure bolsters a healthier marketplace. Overall, this research offers a new perspective on the Lloyd's of London market and demonstrates the potential of individual-based modelling (IBM) for understanding complex financial systems.

By 2020, over 100 countries had expanded electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (EV/PHEV) technologies, with global sales surpassing 7 million units. Governments are adopting cleaner vehicle technologies due to the proven environmental and health implications of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), as evidenced by the recent COP26 meeting. This article proposes an agent-based model of vehicle activity as a tool for quantifying energy consumption by simulating a fleet of EV/PHEVs within an urban street network at various spatio-temporal resolutions. Driver behaviour plays a significant role in energy consumption; thus, simulating various levels of individual behaviour and enhancing heterogeneity should provide more accurate results of potential energy demand in cities. The study found that (1) energy consumption is lowest when speed limit adherence increases (low variance in behaviour) and is highest when acceleration/deceleration patterns vary (high variance in behaviour); (2) vehicles that travel for shorter distances while abiding by speed limit rules are more energy efficient compared to those that speed and travel for longer; and (3) on average, for tested vehicles, EV/PHEVs were £233.13 cheaper to run than ICEVs across all experiment conditions. The difference in the average fuel costs (electricity and petrol) shrinks at the vehicle level as driver behaviour is less varied (more homogeneous). This research should allow policymakers to quantify the demand for energy and subsequent fuel costs in cities.

By 2020, over 100 countries expanded electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (EV/PHEV) technologies, with global sales surpassing 7 million units. Governments are adopting cleaner vehicle technologies due to proven environmental and health implications of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), evidenced by the recent COP26 meeting. This article proposes an agent-based model of vehicle activity as a tool for quantifying energy consumption by simulating a fleet of EV/PHEVs within an urban street network at various spatio-temporal resolutions. Driver behaviour plays a significant role in fuel consumption, thus, simulating various levels of individual behaviour enhancing heterogeneity should provide more accurate results of potential energy demand in cities. The study found that 1) energy consumption is lowest when speed limit adherence increases (low variance in behaviour) and is highest when acceleration/deceleration patterns vary (high variance in behaviour) and 2) on average, for tested vehicles, EV/PHEVs were £116.33 cheaper to run than ICEVs across all experiment conditions. The difference in the average fuel costs (electricity and petrol) shrinks at the vehicle level as driver behaviour is less varied (more homogeneous). This research should allow policymakers to quantify the demand for energy and subsequent fuel costs in cities.

Roadside collisions are a significant problem faced by all countries. Urbanisation has led to an increase in traffic congestion and roadside vehicle collisions. According to the UK Government’s Department for Transport, most vehicle collisions occur on urban roads, with empirical evidence showing drivers are more likely to break local and fixed speed limits in urban environments. Analysis conducted by the Department for Transport found that the UK’s accident prevention measure’s cost is estimated to be £33bn per year. Therefore, there is a strong motivation to investigate the causes of roadside collisions in urban environments to better prepare traffic management, support local council policies, and ultimately reduce collision rates. This study utilises agent-based modelling as a tool to plan, experiment and investigate the relationship between speeding and vehicle density with collisions. The study found that higher traffic density results in more vehicles travelling at a slower speed, regardless of the degree to which drivers comply with speed restrictions. Secondly, collisions increase linearly as speed compliance is reduced for all densities. Collisions are lowest when all vehicles comply with speed limits for all densities. Lastly, higher global traffic densities result in higher local traffic densities near-collision sites across all adherence levels, increasing the likelihood of congestion around these sites. This work, when extended to real-world applications using empirical data, can support effective road safety policies.