Mathanraj Seevarethnam

Due to extensive population growth, urbanization increases urban development and sprawl in the world’s cities. Urban sprawl is a socioeconomic phenomenon that has not extensively incorporated socioeconomic factors in the prediction of most of the urban sprawl models. This study aimed to predict the urban sprawl pattern in 2030 by integrating socioeconomic and biophysical factors. NDBI, Cramer’s V, logistic regression, and CA-Markov analyses were used to classify and predict built-up patterns. The built-up area is the dominant land use, which had a gradual growth from 1990 to 2020. A total of 20 socioeconomic and biophysical factors were identified as potentials in the municipality, affecting the urban sprawl. Policy regulation was the most attractive driver with a positive association, and land value had a high inverse association. Three prediction scenarios for urban sprawl were achieved for 2030. Higher sprawling growth is expected in scenario 3, compared with scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 3 was simulated with biophysical and socioeconomic factors. This study aids in addressing urban sprawl at different spatial and temporal scales and helps urban planners and decision makers enhance the development strategies in the municipality. Predicted maps with different scenarios can support evaluating future sprawling growth and be used to develop sustainable planning for the city.

Urban sprawl related to rapid urbanisation in developed and developing nations affects sustainable land use. In Sri Lanka, urban areas have mostly expanded in a rather spontaneous, unplanned manner (based on the current settlers’ subjective movement) rather than conforming to the local government’s development plan. This growth inevitably leads to uncontrolled urban sprawl in many Sri Lankan cities, including Batticaloa. So far, Sri Lanka’s planners or researchers have not yet tackled the sprawling developments in this city. Understanding the different forms and patterns of urban sprawl is the key to address sprawling growth. This study aims to identify the characteristics of urban sprawl in the Batticaloa municipal council using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing technology. Landsat satellite images for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 as well as 2002, 2011, and 2019 population data were used and analysed using ArcGIS’ maximum likelihood classification tool and the density function, respectively, to delineate the characteristics of urban sprawl. The results revealed that low-density development, leapfrog development, commercial ribbon development, and scattered growth are the influencing characteristics of urban sprawl in the Batticaloa municipality. These characteristics were found mainly in the urban edge of the city and have led to urban sprawl. The finding provides knowledge into recognising the characteristics of urban sprawl with empirical evidence. It affords a clear direction for future studies of urban sprawl in rapidly growing cities that are numerous in Sri Lanka, and the identified characteristics of urban sprawl can be useful in minimising future sprawl. This result can be a tool for future urban planning and management in the Batticaloa municipality.