Chao Yang

The Key Laboratory of Integrated Microsystems (IMS) of Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School has deployed a self-developed acoustic and electromagnetics to artificial intelligence (AETA) system on a large scale and at a high density in China to comprehensively monitor and collect the precursor anomaly signals that occur before earthquakes for seismic prediction. This paper constructs several classic time series and non-time series prediction models for comparison and analysis in order to find the most suitable earthquake-prediction model among these models. The long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which gains the best results in earthquake prediction based on AETA data extracted from the precursor anomaly signals, is selected for real-earthquake prediction for 16 consecutive weeks.

Acoustic and electromagnetics to artificial intelligence (AETA) is a system used to predict seismic events through monitoring of electromagnetic and geoacoustic signals. It is widely deployed in the Sichuan–Yunnan region (22° N–34° N, 98° E–107° E) of China. Generally, the electromagnetic signals of AETA stations near the epicenter have abnormal disturbances before an earthquake. When a significant decrease or increase in the signal is observed, it is difficult to quantify this change using only visual observation and confirm that it is related to an upcoming large earthquake. Considering that the AETA data comprise a typical time series, current work has analyzed the anomalism of AETA electromagnetic signals using the long short-term memory (LSTM) autoencoder method to prove that the electromagnetic anomaly of the AETA station can be regarded as an earthquake precursor. The results show that there are 2–4% anomalous points and some outliers exceeding 0.7 (after normalization) in the AETA stations within 200 km of the epicenter of the Jiuzaigou earthquake (M. 7.0) and the Yibin earthquake (M. 6.0) half a month before the earthquakes. Therefore, the AETA electromagnetic disturbance signal can be used as an earthquake precursor and for further earthquake prediction.