Marcelo Alves Muniz

The present study aimed to examine the temporal dynamics of tuberculosis incidence, mortality, and TB–HIV coinfection in the First Health Region of Alagoas from 2001 to 2022, with particular attention to sex-specific differences. The analysis revealed pronounced divergences between men and women. The male series exhibited significant positive autocorrelation and high interannual variability, indicating strong temporal dependence and heightened sensitivity to external disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The female series displayed a more regular pattern without autocorrelation. Although both sexes showed declining incidence, only the reduction among women reached statistical significance; the male trend remained unstable and inconclusive. Disease burden was consistently higher among men, who accounted for most cases and maintained incidence levels above elimination targets. TB–HIV coinfection increased in both sexes, with a sharper rise among men and a statistically significant upward trend among women, accompanied by a structural shift in 2010. Additional change points in 2014 and 2018 are likely to reflect alterations in surveillance or broader public health events. The weak performance of linear models underscores the role of persistent social determinants and inequities in healthcare access. Overall, the findings demonstrate that tuberculosis remains a major public health concern and that differentiated strategies by sex are essential for effective prevention and care.

Rainfall is essential for sustaining ecosystem balance and the hydrological cycle. This study analyzed 43 years of rainfall data (January 1975–December 2017) from the Bebedouro Agrometeorological Station – Petrolina (PE), Brazil. The objective was to perform a descriptive and exploratory assessment of precipitation patterns and evaluate trends using the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests at monthly and annual scales. Results show that the mean annual accumulated rainfall was 484.51 mm, with the wettest months occurring from January to April and in December, and the driest months from July to September. The mean coefficients of variation for annual rainfall were 44.19% during the rainy season and 55.84% during the dry season, ranging from 48.84% to 51.16% in years with mean annual coefficients of variation of ±84.56% and ±108.57%. The Mann-Kendall test (MK) detected a decreasing trend exclusively in March, while the Pettitt test (P) identified significant breakpoints. Analysis of monthly trends during the dry season revealed rainfall consistently below the monthly average. Overall, the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests for the dry season and annual data indicate significant abrupt changes in rainfall patterns.

A serrapilheira é uma camada formada pela deposição e acúmulo de matéria orgânica morta (biomassa) em diferentes estágios de decomposição que reveste superficialmente o solo, sendo a principal via de retorno de nutrientes ao solo. Este estudo focou na quantificação do estoque de biomassa e carbono na serrapilheira do Parque Zoobotânico da Universidade Federal do Acre, explorando o papel vital deste compartimento na ciclagem de nutrientes e sequestro de carbono. A metodologia empregada envolveu a distribuição aleatória de 15 parcelas de 25x25 metros na área do Parque. Em cada parcela, coletou-se todo o material depositado no solo, que foi posteriormente pesado. Amostras deste material foram coletadas e secas em estufa a 75 ± 2 °C até atingirem peso constante, permitindo a determinação da biomassa seca. Parte dessas amostras foi analisada em laboratório para quantificar o teor de carbono mediante calcinação a 540 ºC. Os resultados indicaram um valor médio de biomassa na serrapilheira de 2.85 Mg.ha-1, com um teor médio de carbono de 61.6%. Conclui-se que o compartimento serrapilheira na floresta do Parque Zoobotânico contribui para o sequestro de carbono, embora os estoques de biomassa e carbono sejam relativamente baixos em comparação com outras áreas da Amazônia.

Os fenômenos naturais de origem climática (tornados, furacões, enchentes e a seca) são responsáveis por prejuízos socioeconômicos e perda de inúmeras vidas no mundo globalizado, sendo a seca o fenômeno de grande magnitude e que causa mais prejuízo à cadeia produtiva podendo inclusive comprometer a segurança hídrica de um país. Assim, objetivou-se verificar a ocorrência do fenômeno seca via Índice de Precipitação Padronizada (SPI) na escala de 12 meses e sua associação ao fenômeno El Niño Oscilação-Sul (ENOS) via Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), no estado do Acre. Os dados pluviométricos foram obtidos na Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA) para o período de 1980 a 2020. O controle de qualidade dos dados indicou que, das 21 estações pluviométricas distribuídas no estado do Acre, 57,14% (12 estações) apresentaram falhas superiores a 14,63%, sendo descartadas, e os menores registros de falhas em 42,86% das estações cujo valores situaram-se entre 4,27% ≤Falhas≤ e 14,63%. Com base na Análise de Cluster (CA), identificou-se o número de 4 grupos ideais sendo dois homogêneos G1, G2 e dois grupos não homogêneos NA, foi adotada a linha de corte de 27,00% da distância Euclidiana, em razão da formação dos grupos homogêneos e não homogêneos. Os grupos G1 e G2 concentram (11,1% e 33,3%) das estações pluviométricas, seguidos pelo (NA) com a maior concentração 55,6% das estações. O coeficiente de correlação cofenética se mostrou satisfatório. Os resultados da estatística descritiva indicam que as maiores médias anuais e desvio padrão ocorrem nos grupos G2 e NA, e a menor média e maior desvio no grupo G1. A distribuição temporal dos índices SPI-12 e ONI identificaram a ocorrência de eventos de seca e ENOS nas estações Marechal Thaumaturgo (G1), Xapuri (G2) e no município de Porto Walter (NA). As matrizes de interações (SPI versus El Niño), (SPI versus La Niña) e (SPI versus ENOS), mostram baixos valores dos coeficientes de correlação (r) e determinação (R2) e baixo desempenho dos modelos de interações conforme os índices de Willmott (d) e confiança (IC). O melhor ajuste do modelo de regressão foi constatado pela interação entre SPI versus La Niña, na estação Marechal Thaumaturgo (G1).

Among the meteorological variables, rain is most important for maintaining life on Earth, but its constant lack has altered the climate of several regions and caused great damage to society. The objective of this study is to assess the occurrence of anomalous rainfall episodes associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases in the municipality of Rio Branco (AC), employing the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). The RAI index evidenced that 29.3% of the years experienced mild drought, 14.63% exhibited moderate drought, and 12.2% encountered severe drought. Episodes of low drought intensity were observed in 21.9% of the years, while episodes of moderate drought occurred in 12.2%. Episodes with high or extremely high drought intensity showed equal percentages of 4.9% of the years, correlating with the ONI. The performance of interactions (RAI versus ENSO), as assessed through statistical parameters (R-squared, correlation coefficient, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, interval coverage, percent bias, and root-mean-square error), indicates a low performance of the regression models. These findings suggest that climatic variability has significantly impacted the region's hydrology, necessitating appropriate measures to manage the impacts of changes in water resource availability.

Daily violations of air quality have an impact on urban populations and cause damage to the environment. Thus, the study evaluated the violations of the daily concentrations of SO₂, NO₂, and PM₁₀, in regions of the State of São Paulo (SSP), based on the National Environment Council (CONAMA) resolution no 491/2018 and the World Health Organization (WHO - World Health Organization. (2016). Ambient air pollution: a global assessment of exposure and burden of disease.) criteria. Daily SO₂, NO₂, and PM₁₀data from 6 air quality stations operated by Environmental Company of the State of São Paulo CETESB (1996–2011) were organized and submitted to quality control, with data faults (gaps) being identified. The imputation of data via spline proved satisfactory in filling in the gaps (r > 0.7 and low values of Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The cluster analysis (CA) applied to SO₂ formed only one homogeneous group (G₁). Contrariwise, NO₂ and PM₁₀ formed two homogeneous groups (G₁ and G₂) each. The stations that showed the greatest similarity according to the CA were Cerqueira Cesar and Osasco. The cophenetic matrix generated for SO₂ (0.83), NO₂ (0.79), and PM₁₀ (0.77) indicate a satisfactory adjustment of the dendrograms. The exploratory statistics applied to groups G₁ and G₂ point to the high variability of outliers. The WHO criteria are more restrictive than CONAMA regarding daily violations, with a reduction in SO₂ and an increase in specific years for NO₂ and PM₁₀. Such variability is due to the adoption of public policies by the SSP and the influence of meteorological systems, being confirmed by the Run test that indicated oscillations in the time series, mainly in PM₁₀, and also recognized well-defined biannual cycles.

The present study has the objective of investigating the hypothesis of stationary behavior in the streamflow regime of the upper Juruá river basin. For this purpose, the annual maximum daily flow data recorded at stations located in Cruzeiro do Sul and Marechal Thaumaturgo, AC, Brazil, were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, and Spearman’s Rho tests. The results show sufficient evidence to conclude that, in Cruzeiro do Sul, the flow rates present an ascending temporal behavior, while in Marechal Thaumaturgo it is descending. However, this tendency is not significant (p<0.05), allowing to conclude in favor of the stationarity hypothesis in the streamflow series of the referred basin. Thus, one of the physical implications associated to the results obtained may be the conclusion that the streamflow regime in the Upper Juruá basin has not changed significantly over time.