Mohamed Maher

Prior research has examined public expenditure, governance and youth unemployment largely in isolation, and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies remain under-covered. This paper therefore examines the effect of government spending on youth unemployment and tests whether governance moderates this link in 20 MENA countries over 1996–2023. We employ the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) and dynamic CCEMG (DCCEMG) estimators, complemented by a short-run mean-coefficient analysis with small-T bias correction for dynamic heterogeneous panels as a robustness check. The findings reveal that public spending exerts a significant negative effect on youth unemployment, indicating the crucial role of government spending in creating jobs for young people; where such spending finances productive projects, more employment opportunities are created and youth unemployment falls. By contrast, both governance and its interaction with government expenditure are statistically insignificant, showing that governance indicators exert no indirect or moderating influence on the public expenditure–youth unemployment relationship in MENA. Policymakers in the region should therefore direct government spending towards manufacturing, agricultural projects, and fostering small and medium enterprises, which stimulate GDP and generate employment, thereby alleviating youth unemployment.

Previous studies show mixed findings with respect to the association between public debt (proportioned to GDP) and economic growth, which should be reexamined. No research has looked at how differences in economic structures, inflation stability, central bank ability to monetize debt, and the stage of economic development can determine their ability to manage and service the public debt and to mitigate the potential deleterious impacts of debt on growth. This paper helps fill this gap in literature by using data from 1974 to 2022 to investigate, in a comparative manner, the existence of debt-GDP thresholds in Egypt (as a developing country) and Japan (as a developed country). These two countries have been chosen due to the differences between both in terms of the above-mentioned factors. To do so, the logistic smooth transition regression is conducted. We found evidence for a statistically significant positive relationship between public debt (proportioned to GDP) and economic growth before crossing the estimated threshold at 72.77% for Egypt and at 205.88% for Japan. Beyond the threshold, public debt has harmful effects on economic growth, suggesting an asymmetric association between the two main variables. Such estimated thresholds, regarding keeping public debt (proportioned to GDP) below the estimated thresholds, could help policymakers design their long-term macroeconomic strategies in the sense that debt below the threshold can be productive. These thresholds can be dealt with as a fiscal anchor. First published online 21 September 2026

Purpose: Previous literature has investigated the connection amongst remittances, political stability and unemployment in remittance-receiving economies separately. Besides, they did not cover the Middle East and North African (MENA) region.Design/methodology/approach: To this end, this research uses the pooled mean group (PMG) method.Findings: The findings suggest that the influence of remittances on lowering unemployment accelerates in recipient economies with high levels of political stability.Practical implications: Policymakers in MENA countries should vigorously pursue political stability, which plays a crucial role in boosting the influence of inward remittances on unemployment alleviation. This is accomplished by establishing solid institutions that contribute to ensuring fair politics, increasing citizens' trust in the government, enhancing the rule of law and protecting investors and prioritizing policies and programs that promote political stability.Originality/value: This paper, therefore, aspires to empirically examine the impacts of inward remittances on unemployment via the moderating role of political stability in thirteen MENA-receiving countries from 1996 to 2020.

Previous studies have investigated the relationship between political instability and economic growth separately from the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth. Besides, they did not cover the period after 2011 (i.e. the Arab Spring and its consequences). Therefore, this paper attempts to empirically analyze the long-run and short-run impacts of both political instability and military expenditure on economic growth in Egypt. We estimate the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach using data on the Egyptian economy over the period 1982–2018. For the robustness of our results, we use the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimator. Results of the ARDL approach indicate a significant negative relationship between political instability and economic growth in both the long-run and short-run. Contrarily, military expenditure has an insignificant impact on economic growth, especially in the long-run. These results are confirmed by the FMOLS estimator. Moreover, the estimated coefficient on the one-period lagged error correction term (ECT_t-1) indicates that deviations from the long-run equilibrium relationship are corrected within a year.