Erick Aldo Auquiñivin Silva
Current Organizations / Institutes
The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article
Previous Organizations / Institutes
The organizations / institutes from the scholar's other articles in the past ten years
Erick Aldo Auquiñivin Silva has a total of 87 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:
- Lucas Dalvil Muñoz Astecker
Grupo de Investigación en Innovación y Desarrollo Agroindustrial (GIIDA), Instituto de Investigación, Innovación y Desarrollo para el Sector Agrario y Agroindustrial (IIDAA), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Agrarias (FICA), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Higos Urco 342, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
10 shared publications - Armstrong Barnard Fernández Jeri
Instituto de Investigación, Innovación y Desarrollo Para el Sector Agrario y Agroindustrial (IIDAA), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Calle Higos Urco No. 342-350-356, Calle Universitaria No. 304, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
7 shared publications - Diner Mori-Mestanza
Instituto de Investigación, Innovación y Desarrollo para el Sector Agrario y Agroindustrial (IIDAA), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01000, Peru
6 shared publications - Efrain Manuelito Castro Alayo
Instituto de Investigación, Innovación y Desarrollo para el Sector Agrario y Agroindustrial (IIDAA), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas, Peru
6 shared publications - Robert Javier Cruzalegui Fernandez
Instituto de Investigación, Innovación y Desarrollo para el Sector Agrario y Agroindustrial (IIDAA), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01000, Peru
6 shared publications - Alex J. Vergara
Instituto de Investigación, Innovación y Desarrollo para el Sector Agrario y Agroindustrial (IIDAA), Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
5 shared publications
Latest Publications
- Open Access
- 5 November 2026
- Published by MDPI AG in Agriculture
- Vol. 16 (21) , 2418
Risk–Benefit Assessment of Pajuro (Erythrina edulis) Seed Coat and Seed Kernel Flours as Novel Food Ingredients
Pajuro (Erythrina edulis) is an underutilized Andean legume with potential for novel food formulations. This study evaluated the risks and benefits of pajuro seed coat and seed kernel flours under theoretical cookie formulation scenarios. Nutritional components and potentially toxic elements were evaluated, and dietary exposure was estimated probabilistically for four age groups using Monte Carlo simulation. Wheat flour replacement with either pajuro flour was modeled using a uniform probability distribution ranging from 5% to 10% of the wheat flour fraction. The highest individual benefit quotients (BQ) were associated with dietary fiber in seed coat flour and potassium in seed kernel flour among children aged 1–6 years. In contrast, hazard quotients (HQ) remained low, with the highest mean values observed for Zn in seed coat flour (0.00590) and Cu in seed kernel flour (0.00586). Aggregate total hazard quotients (THQ), interpreted as screening-level composite indices rather than direct estimates of cumulative health risk, remained below 1 across all age groups, ranging from 0.06 to 0.15 for the seed coat and from 0.08 to 0.16 for the seed kernel. The upper tail of the total benefit quotient (TBQ) reached 0.97 and 0.86 for seed coat and seed kernel, respectively, in children aged 1–6 years. These findings suggest a favorable quantitative risk–benefit profile under the modeled scenarios; however, experimental validation is needed before practical food applications can be established.
- 5 November 2026
- Published by MDPI AG in Agriculture
- Vol. 16 (21) , 2418
Open AccessRisk–Benefit Assessment of Pajuro (Erythrina edulis) Seed Coat and Seed Kernel Flours as Novel Food Ingredients
Pajuro (Erythrina edulis) is an underutilized Andean legume with potential for novel food formulations. This study evaluated the risks and benefits of pajuro seed coat and seed kernel flours under theoretical cookie formulation scenarios. Nutritional components and potentially toxic elements were evaluated, and dietary exposure was estimated probabilistically for four age groups using Monte Carlo simulation. Wheat flour replacement with either pajuro flour was modeled using a uniform probability distribution ranging from 5% to 10% of the wheat flour fraction. The highest individual benefit quotients (BQ) were associated with dietary fiber in seed coat flour and potassium in seed kernel flour among children aged 1–6 years. In contrast, hazard quotients (HQ) remained low, with the highest mean values observed for Zn in seed coat flour (0.00590) and Cu in seed kernel flour (0.00586). Aggregate total hazard quotients (THQ), interpreted as screening-level composite indices rather than direct estimates of cumulative health risk, remained below 1 across all age groups, ranging from 0.06 to 0.15 for the seed coat and from 0.08 to 0.16 for the seed kernel. The upper tail of the total benefit quotient (TBQ) reached 0.97 and 0.86 for seed coat and seed kernel, respectively, in children aged 1–6 years. These findings suggest a favorable quantitative risk–benefit profile under the modeled scenarios; however, experimental validation is needed before practical food applications can be established.
- Open Access
Volatile Profiles of Sweet Breads Enriched with Orange and Lime Peel Flours
This study characterized the volatile organic compounds of sweet breads formulated with 2% and 4% orange (Citrus sinensis) (C.S.) and lime (Citrus limetta Risso) (C.L.) peel flours by integrating gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and multivariate analysis. A total of 165 volatile compounds belonging to 11 chemical families were identified. Citrus peel flour significantly modified the volatile profile (p ≤ 0.05), primarily reducing furans, carboxylic acids, aldehydes, ketones, and pyrazines while increasing terpenes, aldehydes, alcohols, and esters. Monoterpenes reached their highest relative abundance in C.L. 2% (45.029 ± 2.284%), whereas sesquiterpenes progressively increased to 6.183 ± 0.762% in C.L. 4%. Several volatile compounds were tentatively identified in the formulations enriched with citrus peel flours. Limonene exhibited the highest relative abundance (14.957 ± 1.406%) in the C.L. 2% formulation, followed by the aldehydes neral (0.258 ± 0.041%) and citral (0.592 ± 0.102%), both detected in the C.L. 4% formulation. Other identified compounds included terpene alcohols, such as geraniol, citronellol, linalool, terpinen-4-ol, and α-terpineol, as well as esters, including geranyl acetate, (Z)-3,7-dimethylocta-2,6-dien-1-yl acetate, and α-terpinyl acetate. These findings provide scientific evidence regarding changes in the profile of volatile compounds associated with the incorporation of citrus peel into sweet breads and support its practical application for diversifying the characteristics of sweet breads while promoting the valorization of agroindustrial byproducts.
Open AccessVolatile Profiles of Sweet Breads Enriched with Orange and Lime Peel Flours
This study characterized the volatile organic compounds of sweet breads formulated with 2% and 4% orange (Citrus sinensis) (C.S.) and lime (Citrus limetta Risso) (C.L.) peel flours by integrating gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and multivariate analysis. A total of 165 volatile compounds belonging to 11 chemical families were identified. Citrus peel flour significantly modified the volatile profile (p ≤ 0.05), primarily reducing furans, carboxylic acids, aldehydes, ketones, and pyrazines while increasing terpenes, aldehydes, alcohols, and esters. Monoterpenes reached their highest relative abundance in C.L. 2% (45.029 ± 2.284%), whereas sesquiterpenes progressively increased to 6.183 ± 0.762% in C.L. 4%. Several volatile compounds were tentatively identified in the formulations enriched with citrus peel flours. Limonene exhibited the highest relative abundance (14.957 ± 1.406%) in the C.L. 2% formulation, followed by the aldehydes neral (0.258 ± 0.041%) and citral (0.592 ± 0.102%), both detected in the C.L. 4% formulation. Other identified compounds included terpene alcohols, such as geraniol, citronellol, linalool, terpinen-4-ol, and α-terpineol, as well as esters, including geranyl acetate, (Z)-3,7-dimethylocta-2,6-dien-1-yl acetate, and α-terpinyl acetate. These findings provide scientific evidence regarding changes in the profile of volatile compounds associated with the incorporation of citrus peel into sweet breads and support its practical application for diversifying the characteristics of sweet breads while promoting the valorization of agroindustrial byproducts.
- Open Access
- 17 October 2026
- Published by Elsevier in Applied Food Research
- Vol. 6 (2)
Development and characterization of bacterial cellulose composite impregnated with extracts of cape gooseberry (Physalis peruviana L.) and purpur (Passiflora tripartita)
- 17 October 2026
- Published by Elsevier in Applied Food Research
- Vol. 6 (2)
Open AccessDevelopment and characterization of bacterial cellulose composite impregnated with extracts of cape gooseberry (Physalis peruviana L.) and purpur (Passiflora tripartita)
- Open Access
Molecular Characterization of Microorganisms, Pectinolytic Potential and Volatile Compound Formation During Spontaneous Fermentation of Criollo Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.)
Spontaneous fermentation of Criollo cacao involves temporal changes in culturable microorganisms and in the volatile compound profile, with potential implications for the development of aroma-related characteristics. This study aimed to characterize culturable microorganisms, assess their apparent pectinolytic potential, and evaluate the temporal dynamics of volatile compounds during spontaneous fermentation of Criollo cacao from the Lagunas rural community, Amazonas, Peru. Microorganisms were isolated at different fermentation stages, and pectinolytic potential was evaluated by screening for pectin-degradation halos on a mineral medium supplemented with pectin. Selected isolates were molecularly identified by sequencing the ITS region for yeasts and the 16S rRNA gene for bacteria. Volatile compounds were analyzed by headspace solid-phase microextraction coupled with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (HS-SPME/GC-MS). All isolates evaluated in the pectin assay produced visible degradation halos, although halo diameter and area varied among isolates, indicating differences in apparent pectinolytic potential. Molecular characterization showed frequent recovery of Pichia kudriavzevii, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Hanseniaspora opuntiae among yeasts, whereas Acetobacter species were frequently recovered among bacteria. Volatile profiling revealed temporal changes in the relative abundance of alcohols, esters, aldehydes, ketones, terpenes, acids, and other compound families. Exploratory Spearman correlation analysis identified several strong temporal associations between microbial recovery frequency and VOC families, particularly involving P. kudriavzevii, Acetobacter pasteurianus, A. tropicalis, and Bacillus subtilis. However, these associations did not remain significant after correction for multiple comparisons. Overall, the integrated culture-dependent, molecular, pectinolytic screening, and volatile profiling approach provides preliminary evidence of coordinated temporal patterns between culturable microorganisms and volatile compounds during spontaneous Criollo cacao fermentation and identifies candidate isolates for further functional evaluation.
Open AccessMolecular Characterization of Microorganisms, Pectinolytic Potential and Volatile Compound Formation During Spontaneous Fermentation of Criollo Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.)
Spontaneous fermentation of Criollo cacao involves temporal changes in culturable microorganisms and in the volatile compound profile, with potential implications for the development of aroma-related characteristics. This study aimed to characterize culturable microorganisms, assess their apparent pectinolytic potential, and evaluate the temporal dynamics of volatile compounds during spontaneous fermentation of Criollo cacao from the Lagunas rural community, Amazonas, Peru. Microorganisms were isolated at different fermentation stages, and pectinolytic potential was evaluated by screening for pectin-degradation halos on a mineral medium supplemented with pectin. Selected isolates were molecularly identified by sequencing the ITS region for yeasts and the 16S rRNA gene for bacteria. Volatile compounds were analyzed by headspace solid-phase microextraction coupled with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (HS-SPME/GC-MS). All isolates evaluated in the pectin assay produced visible degradation halos, although halo diameter and area varied among isolates, indicating differences in apparent pectinolytic potential. Molecular characterization showed frequent recovery of Pichia kudriavzevii, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Hanseniaspora opuntiae among yeasts, whereas Acetobacter species were frequently recovered among bacteria. Volatile profiling revealed temporal changes in the relative abundance of alcohols, esters, aldehydes, ketones, terpenes, acids, and other compound families. Exploratory Spearman correlation analysis identified several strong temporal associations between microbial recovery frequency and VOC families, particularly involving P. kudriavzevii, Acetobacter pasteurianus, A. tropicalis, and Bacillus subtilis. However, these associations did not remain significant after correction for multiple comparisons. Overall, the integrated culture-dependent, molecular, pectinolytic screening, and volatile profiling approach provides preliminary evidence of coordinated temporal patterns between culturable microorganisms and volatile compounds during spontaneous Criollo cacao fermentation and identifies candidate isolates for further functional evaluation.
- Open Access
- 1 June 2026
- Published by Elsevier in Applied Food Research
- Vol. 6 (1)
Risk and benefit assessment of incorporating citrus peel flour into sweet bread
- 1 June 2026
- Published by Elsevier in Applied Food Research
- Vol. 6 (1)
Open AccessRisk and benefit assessment of incorporating citrus peel flour into sweet bread
- Open Access
- 15 January 2026
- Published by MDPI AG in Applied Sciences
- Vol. 16 (2) , 880
Bioactive Compounds, Technological Processing, and Functional Applications of Solanum betaceum: A Systematic Review (2020–2025)
Solanum betaceum (tamarillo) is Andean fruit rich in secondary metabolites with increasing relevance in food, nutraceutical, and biotechnological research. Despite growing scientific interest, the available evidence remains fragmented and methodologically heterogeneous. This systematic review consolidates and critically analyzes recent studies on the bioactive composition of S. betaceum, the effects of conventional and emerging processing technologies, and the functional activities reported for fresh fruits, by-products, and processed matrices. A comprehensive search of Lens.org, Scopus, and PubMed was conducted following PRISMA 2020 guidelines. From 1049 records identified, 65 studies published between 2020 and 2025 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis. The literature reveals substantial variability in polyphenols, anthocyanins, carotenoids, vitamin C, and other metabolites, driven by cultivar, maturity stage, edaphoclimatic conditions, and analytical approaches. Emerging technologies such as ultrasound-assisted extraction, high-pressure homogenization, and spray drying generally improved the recovery and stability of bioactive compounds, whereas intensive thermal treatments were associated with degradation of thermolabile constituents. Functional evidence supports antioxidant, antimicrobial, metabolic modulatory, and cytotoxic activities; however, interpretation is limited by inconsistent reporting practices, limited bioaccessibility assessment, and the predominance of in vitro models. Overall, S. betaceum shows considerable functional and technological potential, but further standardized methodologies, mechanistic studies, and human-relevant models are required to support translational and industrial validation.
- 15 January 2026
- Published by MDPI AG in Applied Sciences
- Vol. 16 (2) , 880
Open AccessBioactive Compounds, Technological Processing, and Functional Applications of Solanum betaceum: A Systematic Review (2020–2025)
Solanum betaceum (tamarillo) is Andean fruit rich in secondary metabolites with increasing relevance in food, nutraceutical, and biotechnological research. Despite growing scientific interest, the available evidence remains fragmented and methodologically heterogeneous. This systematic review consolidates and critically analyzes recent studies on the bioactive composition of S. betaceum, the effects of conventional and emerging processing technologies, and the functional activities reported for fresh fruits, by-products, and processed matrices. A comprehensive search of Lens.org, Scopus, and PubMed was conducted following PRISMA 2020 guidelines. From 1049 records identified, 65 studies published between 2020 and 2025 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis. The literature reveals substantial variability in polyphenols, anthocyanins, carotenoids, vitamin C, and other metabolites, driven by cultivar, maturity stage, edaphoclimatic conditions, and analytical approaches. Emerging technologies such as ultrasound-assisted extraction, high-pressure homogenization, and spray drying generally improved the recovery and stability of bioactive compounds, whereas intensive thermal treatments were associated with degradation of thermolabile constituents. Functional evidence supports antioxidant, antimicrobial, metabolic modulatory, and cytotoxic activities; however, interpretation is limited by inconsistent reporting practices, limited bioaccessibility assessment, and the predominance of in vitro models. Overall, S. betaceum shows considerable functional and technological potential, but further standardized methodologies, mechanistic studies, and human-relevant models are required to support translational and industrial validation.
- Open Access
Physicochemical, Bioactive, and Sensory Characterization of Panettone Enriched with Sambucus peruviana Flour
Panettones enriched with Sambucus peruviana (elderberry) flour at concentrations of 4, 6, 8, and 10% were developed to study their physicochemical, bioactive, and sensory properties. Results showed that the incorporation of S. peruviana significantly increased fiber content, reaching 4.74% in the EP10 formulation, compared to 3.53% in the control (TP0). Total phenolic content also increased, reaching 6.7 mg GAE/g in EP10 versus 4.0 mg GAE/g in TP0. Regarding antioxidant capacity, DPPH antioxidant activity was the highest in EP10 (0.9 mg TE/g), while TP0 presented only 0.2 mg TE/g. In terms of physical properties, the color of the panettone progressively darkened with S. peruviana incorporation, with a decrease in lightness (L*) from 56.79 in TP0 to 39.54 in EP10. For texture, hardness increased significantly from 20.23 N in TP0 to 77.15 N in EP10, suggesting greater crumb compactness. In the sensory evaluation, formulations EP4 and EP6 showed higher acceptance in attributes such as color and aroma, while higher concentrations (EP8 and EP10) exhibited a slight decrease in acceptance due to increased hardness and a slightly bitter taste. These results demonstrate the potential of S. peruviana flour as a functional ingredient for enriching bakery products, enhancing their nutritional and antioxidant profiles without excessively compromising sensory characteristics.
Open AccessPhysicochemical, Bioactive, and Sensory Characterization of Panettone Enriched with Sambucus peruviana Flour
Panettones enriched with Sambucus peruviana (elderberry) flour at concentrations of 4, 6, 8, and 10% were developed to study their physicochemical, bioactive, and sensory properties. Results showed that the incorporation of S. peruviana significantly increased fiber content, reaching 4.74% in the EP10 formulation, compared to 3.53% in the control (TP0). Total phenolic content also increased, reaching 6.7 mg GAE/g in EP10 versus 4.0 mg GAE/g in TP0. Regarding antioxidant capacity, DPPH antioxidant activity was the highest in EP10 (0.9 mg TE/g), while TP0 presented only 0.2 mg TE/g. In terms of physical properties, the color of the panettone progressively darkened with S. peruviana incorporation, with a decrease in lightness (L*) from 56.79 in TP0 to 39.54 in EP10. For texture, hardness increased significantly from 20.23 N in TP0 to 77.15 N in EP10, suggesting greater crumb compactness. In the sensory evaluation, formulations EP4 and EP6 showed higher acceptance in attributes such as color and aroma, while higher concentrations (EP8 and EP10) exhibited a slight decrease in acceptance due to increased hardness and a slightly bitter taste. These results demonstrate the potential of S. peruviana flour as a functional ingredient for enriching bakery products, enhancing their nutritional and antioxidant profiles without excessively compromising sensory characteristics.
- Open Access
- 23 September 2025
- Published by Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodriguez de Mendoza de Amazonas in Revista de Investigación de Agroproducción Sustentable
- Vol. 7 (1) , 54-67
Reducción de la glucosa en adultos con dislipidemia tras el consumo de una bebida funcional a base de Solanum betaceum.
This pilot study evaluated the effect of consuming a functional beverage based on Solanum betaceum on glucose levels in adults with dyslipidemia. A randomized, double-anonymized, placebo-controlled trial was conducted in 52 volunteers aged 18 to 59 years, recruited in Chachapoyas, Amazonas. The treatment group (n=36) consumed 150 mL of a beverage containing 30% fresh S. betaceum juice daily, while the placebo group (n=8) received a sensory-similar beverage containing 10% juice. The intervention lasted eight weeks, and fasting serum glucose was assessed at baseline, week 4, and week 8 using the glucose oxidase-peroxidase method. The results showed that the treatment group had a significant reduction from baseline to week 8 (103.0 ± 39.1 vs. 90.7 ± 23.4 mg/dL; p<0.01), whereas the placebo group showed no significant change (89.8 ± 7.1 vs. 89.5 ± 12.9 mg/dL; ns). The intergroup difference at the end of the intervention was significant (p<0.05). Biochemical characterization of the beverage showed stability of anthocyanins (cyanidin chloride 0.1140 ± 0.0003 mg/mL), formation of protocatechuic acid (0.0216 ± 0.0004 mg/mL), and reduction of epicatechin after thermal processing (0.1189 ± 0.0078 mg/mL). In conclusion, daily consumption of this functional beverage for eight weeks significantly reduced fasting glucose levels, supporting its potential as a natural dietary strategy in adults with dyslipidemia.
- 23 September 2025
- Published by Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodriguez de Mendoza de Amazonas in Revista de Investigación de Agroproducción Sustentable
- Vol. 7 (1) , 54-67
Open AccessReducción de la glucosa en adultos con dislipidemia tras el consumo de una bebida funcional a base de Solanum betaceum.
This pilot study evaluated the effect of consuming a functional beverage based on Solanum betaceum on glucose levels in adults with dyslipidemia. A randomized, double-anonymized, placebo-controlled trial was conducted in 52 volunteers aged 18 to 59 years, recruited in Chachapoyas, Amazonas. The treatment group (n=36) consumed 150 mL of a beverage containing 30% fresh S. betaceum juice daily, while the placebo group (n=8) received a sensory-similar beverage containing 10% juice. The intervention lasted eight weeks, and fasting serum glucose was assessed at baseline, week 4, and week 8 using the glucose oxidase-peroxidase method. The results showed that the treatment group had a significant reduction from baseline to week 8 (103.0 ± 39.1 vs. 90.7 ± 23.4 mg/dL; p<0.01), whereas the placebo group showed no significant change (89.8 ± 7.1 vs. 89.5 ± 12.9 mg/dL; ns). The intergroup difference at the end of the intervention was significant (p<0.05). Biochemical characterization of the beverage showed stability of anthocyanins (cyanidin chloride 0.1140 ± 0.0003 mg/mL), formation of protocatechuic acid (0.0216 ± 0.0004 mg/mL), and reduction of epicatechin after thermal processing (0.1189 ± 0.0078 mg/mL). In conclusion, daily consumption of this functional beverage for eight weeks significantly reduced fasting glucose levels, supporting its potential as a natural dietary strategy in adults with dyslipidemia.
- Open Access
- 28 August 2025
- Published by MDPI AG in Applied Sciences
- Vol. 15 (17) , 9423
Geospatial Landslide Risk Mapping Using AHP and GIS: A Case Study of the Utcubamba River Basin, Peru
This study examines the use of a spatial multi-criteria approach based on GIS and AHP techniques to model landslide risk in the Utcubamba river basin, Peru. The methodology consisted of selecting twelve triggering variables: slope angle, geology, precipitation, distance to faults, drainage density, TWI, relative relief, profile curve, land use, elevation, distance to roads, and distance to population centers. These variables were then analyzed using the AHP method and then integrated into a GIS environment, where the weighted linear combination (WLC) method was used to map landslide risk. The risk was categorized into five classes, ranging from very low (1) to very high (5). The main results indicate that 32.81% of the area analyzed in the Utcubamba river basin presents a high and very high risk of landslides. The high-risk areas are mainly located in the southern part of the basin and coincide with areas with steep slopes, high rainfall, and proximity to population centers or communication routes. The model generated was highly accurate (AUC of 0.82), confirming that the integration of the AHP method with GIS allows for the precise identification of critical areas, which is useful for territorial planning, the prioritization of interventions, and emergency management, making it a reliable and replicable methodology in other parts of Peru.
- 28 August 2025
- Published by MDPI AG in Applied Sciences
- Vol. 15 (17) , 9423
Open AccessGeospatial Landslide Risk Mapping Using AHP and GIS: A Case Study of the Utcubamba River Basin, Peru
This study examines the use of a spatial multi-criteria approach based on GIS and AHP techniques to model landslide risk in the Utcubamba river basin, Peru. The methodology consisted of selecting twelve triggering variables: slope angle, geology, precipitation, distance to faults, drainage density, TWI, relative relief, profile curve, land use, elevation, distance to roads, and distance to population centers. These variables were then analyzed using the AHP method and then integrated into a GIS environment, where the weighted linear combination (WLC) method was used to map landslide risk. The risk was categorized into five classes, ranging from very low (1) to very high (5). The main results indicate that 32.81% of the area analyzed in the Utcubamba river basin presents a high and very high risk of landslides. The high-risk areas are mainly located in the southern part of the basin and coincide with areas with steep slopes, high rainfall, and proximity to population centers or communication routes. The model generated was highly accurate (AUC of 0.82), confirming that the integration of the AHP method with GIS allows for the precise identification of critical areas, which is useful for territorial planning, the prioritization of interventions, and emergency management, making it a reliable and replicable methodology in other parts of Peru.
- Open Access
Current and Future Spatial Distribution of the Aedes aegypti in Peru Based on Topoclimatic Analysis and Climate Change Scenarios
Dengue, a febrile disease that has caused epidemics and deaths in South America, especially Peru, is vectored by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Despite the seriousness of dengue fever, and the expanding range of Ae. aegypti, future distributions of the vector and disease in the context of climate change have not yet been clearly determined. Expanding on previous findings, our study employed bioclimatic and topographic variables to model both the present and future distribution of the Ae. aegypti mosquito using the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results indicate that 10.23% (132,053.96 km2) and 23.65% (305,253.82 km2) of Peru’s surface area possess regions with high and moderate distribution probabilities, respectively, predominantly located in the departments of San Martín, Piura, Loreto, Lambayeque, Cajamarca, Amazonas, and Cusco. Moreover, based on projected future climate scenarios, it is anticipated that areas with a high probability of Ae. aegypti distribution will undergo expansion; specifically, the extent of these areas is estimated to increase by 4.47% and 2.99% by the years 2070 and 2100, respectively, under SSP2-4.5 in the HadGEM-GC31-LL model. Given the increasing dengue epidemic in Peru in recent years, our study seeks to identify tools for effectively addressing this pressing public health concern. Consequently, this research serves as a foundational framework for assessing areas with the highest likelihood of Ae. aegypti distribution in response to projected climate change in the second half of the 21st century.
Open AccessCurrent and Future Spatial Distribution of the Aedes aegypti in Peru Based on Topoclimatic Analysis and Climate Change Scenarios
Dengue, a febrile disease that has caused epidemics and deaths in South America, especially Peru, is vectored by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Despite the seriousness of dengue fever, and the expanding range of Ae. aegypti, future distributions of the vector and disease in the context of climate change have not yet been clearly determined. Expanding on previous findings, our study employed bioclimatic and topographic variables to model both the present and future distribution of the Ae. aegypti mosquito using the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results indicate that 10.23% (132,053.96 km2) and 23.65% (305,253.82 km2) of Peru’s surface area possess regions with high and moderate distribution probabilities, respectively, predominantly located in the departments of San Martín, Piura, Loreto, Lambayeque, Cajamarca, Amazonas, and Cusco. Moreover, based on projected future climate scenarios, it is anticipated that areas with a high probability of Ae. aegypti distribution will undergo expansion; specifically, the extent of these areas is estimated to increase by 4.47% and 2.99% by the years 2070 and 2100, respectively, under SSP2-4.5 in the HadGEM-GC31-LL model. Given the increasing dengue epidemic in Peru in recent years, our study seeks to identify tools for effectively addressing this pressing public health concern. Consequently, this research serves as a foundational framework for assessing areas with the highest likelihood of Ae. aegypti distribution in response to projected climate change in the second half of the 21st century.