Julian Gutierrez

We propose two methodologies for modelling aggregated supply and demand curves in the EPEX SPOT Day-Ahead market, emphasizing generative models as a way to recover distributional variability. The first is a low-dimensional parametric representation that yields deterministic point forecasts; the second is a high-dimensional order-level representation that samples from a conditional distribution of plausible curves. Both model the full curve structure, enabling the analysis of price sensitivity, volume sensitivity, and price impact. The parametric representation uses plateau levels, elastic-region boundaries, and polynomial coefficients, forecast with eXtreme Gradient Boosting. The main contribution is the generative representation, which uses price arrivals and volume-increment marks and is implemented with conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models. Using French EPEX data from 2021 to 2024, we evaluate both approaches through curve reconstruction and a price-maker storage optimization problem. The parametric implementation provides a deterministic reference, while the diffusion-based implementation produces distributions of plausible curves and achieves higher realized profits and smaller gaps to an oracle benchmark in the storage application.

We propose a machine learning method to solve a mean-field game price formation model with common noise. This involves determining the price of a commodity traded among rational agents subject to a market clearing condition imposed by random supply, which presents additional challenges compared to the deterministic counterpart. Our approach uses a dual recurrent neural network architecture encoding noise dependence and a particle approximation of the mean-field model with a single loss function optimized by adversarial training. We provide a posteriori estimates for convergence and illustrate our method through numerical experiments.

Here, we study machine learning (ML) architectures to solve a mean-field games (MFGs) system arising in price formation models. We formulate a training process that relies on a min-max characterization of the optimal control and price variables. Our main theoretical contribution is the development of a posteriori estimates as a tool to evaluate the convergence of the training process. We illustrate our results with numerical experiments for linear dynamics and both quadratic and non-quadratic models.

International Press of Boston - publishers of scholarly mathematical and scientific journals and books

We consider a market where a finite number of players trade an asset whose supply is a stochastic process. The price formation problem consists of finding a price process that ensures that when agents act optimally to minimize their trading costs, the market clears, and supply meets demand. This problem arises in market economies, including electricity generation from renewable sources in smart grids. Our model includes noise on the supply side, which is counterbalanced on the consumption side by storing energy or reducing the demand according to a dynamic price process. By solving a constrained minimization problem, we prove that the Lagrange multiplier corresponding to the market-clearing condition defines the solution of the price formation problem. For the linear-quadratic structure, we characterize the price process of a continuum population using optimal control techniques. We include numerical schemes for the price computation in the finite and infinite games, and we illustrate the model using real data.

We study the connection between the Aubry-Mather theory and a mean-field game (MFG) price-formation model. We introduce a framework for Mather measures that is suited for constrained time-dependent problems in R. Then, we propose a variational problem on a space of measures, from which we obtain a duality relation involving the MFG problem examined in [36].

In this paper, we propose a mean-field game model for the price formation of a commodity whose production is subjected to random fluctuations. The model generalizes existing deterministic price formation models. Agents seek to minimize their average cost by choosing their trading rates with a price that is characterized by a balance between supply and demand. The supply and the price processes are assumed to follow stochastic differential equations. Here, we show that, for linear dynamics and quadratic costs, the optimal trading rates are determined in feedback form. Hence, the price arises as the solution to a stochastic differential equation, whose coefficients depend on the solution of a system of ordinary differential equations.

In this paper, we propose a mean-field game model for the price formation of a commodity whose production is subjected to random fluctuations. The model generalizes existing deterministic price formation models. Agents seek to minimize their average cost by choosing their trading rates with a price that is characterized by a balance between supply and demand. The supply and the price processes are assumed to follow stochastic differential equations. Here, we show that, for linear dynamics and quadratic costs, the optimal trading rates are determined in feedback form. Hence, the price arises as the solution to a stochastic differential equation, whose coefficients depend on the solution of a system of ordinary differential equations.