Irfan Ahmed Khan

Incentive Based (IB) and Command and Control (CAC) instruments are identified in various legislative Acts and Policy documents based on the criteria of environmental economics. Despite the advantages of IB strategies the world of policy making is somewhat locked into the path of traditional approaches such as CAC and pose inertia to move forward in environmental policy making. An ethical shift is inevitable anywhere where there is a market failure and increased social costs and inefficiencies in government interventions to regulate the market. Regulations are discrete steps to address feedbacks in a complex system. Policy evaluation and testing criteria is used to evaluate and test the policies regulating marble extraction and processing in Pakistan. A set of policy and regulatory instruments are selected to be critiqued. The coexisting policy approaches found in the study shall be tested on system dynamics model for developing insights and long-term implications.

This paper aims to analyze national policies of Pakistan taking into account the complexity of electric power generation, growth, and complying with multilateral agreements. Systems thinking has been applied to understand the complexity of energy scenario of Pakistan by representing it with a causal loop diagram (CLD) which displays the interconnectedness and feedbacks of the system. Analysis is based on systems archetypes to diagnose the system behavior, i.e., falling into the vicious cycle of coal. A stock-and-flow model was employed to capture dynamics of energy generation quantitatively, indicating that a 5% GDP growth rate could be sustained based on current planning to increase electric power generation in Pakistan. Thus, in order to achieve a 7% GDP growth rate, as targeted in Vision 2025 of Pakistan, energy generation targets would need to be revised in the view of the sensitivity of increase in energy demand associated with GDP growth rate, while ensuring compliance with multilateral agreements.