Marcello Viti

Tectonic activity in the Mediterranean region has been driven by the convergence of the confining plates (Nubia, Arabia and Eurasia). This convergence has been accommodated by the consumption of the oceanic domains that were present in the late Oligocene. It is suggested that this process has been enabled by the lateral escape of orogenic belts in response to constrictional contexts. Where this condition was not present, subduction did not occur. This interpretation can plausibly and coherently account for the very complex pattern of tectonic processes in the whole area since the early Miocene. It is also suggested, by providing some examples, that the geodynamic context proposed here might help us to recognize the connection between the ongoing tectonic processes and the spatio-temporal distribution of past major earthquakes. A discussion is then reported about the incompatibilities of the main alternative geodynamic interpretation (slab pull) with the observed deformation pattern.

An attempt is made at recognizing the main effects of the strong 1939 earthquake in the Easternmost Anatolian Fault on the seismic activity in key Mediterranean tectonic zones. The major earthquake trends since 1800 indicate that, in the decades following 1939, both the number and intensity of significant earthquakes increased in the central and western NAF, the western Anatolia, the Crete–Rhodes Arc, the Peloponnesus, Sicily, and even the Tell zones. In contrast, seismicity experienced a sharp decline in the Serbo-Macedonian, Epirus-Albanides, and Calabria zones. These findings provide additional constraints on the geodynamic and tectonic framework and on the role played by post-seismic relaxation in the Mediterranean region.

The spatiotemporal distribution of major earthquakes in the study area (1600–2024) is analyzed to tentatively recognize the possible connections with the short-term (from decades to centuries) evolution of the ongoing tectonic processes. This study suggests that during the period considered, seismic activity has been predominantly related to the shortening processes accommodating the convergence of northwestern Nubia with the Iberian and Moroccan plates that mainly involve the westward escape of the Alboran wedge and the NNE-ward escape of the Iberian block. This deformation pattern is inferred from the seismic activity in the North Atlantic domain, the Rif and Betics belts, the western Iberian fault system (onshore and offshore), the Transmoroccan fault system and the Pyrenean thrust front. Seismic activity in the Tell is mainly driven by the Nubia–Eurasia convergence, even though it can be also influenced by the major westward displacements of the Anatolian–Aegean–Adriatic–Pelagian system. This hypothesis could explain the marked increase in seismic activity that occurred in the Tell in the last decades, when that zone may have been affected by the perturbation triggered by the large post-1939 westward displacement of Anatolia. The pieces of evidence and the arguments reported in this study might provide insights into the possible spatial distribution of major earthquakes in the next decades.

It is suggested that the occurrence of tectonic activity in the northern Nubian belts (Tell-Rif and Atlas systems) since the Late Pliocene can be interpreted as one of the processes that were produced in the central and western Mediterranean zones by the collision of the Adriatic continental promontory with the Anatolian–Aegean Tethyan system. Since then, the consumption of the residual low-buoyancy domains in the Mediterranean area was allowed by a major change in the plate mosaic and the related kinematics. The new tectonic setting started with the decoupling of a large portion of the Adriatic domain (Adria plate) from Nubia, through the formation of a long discontinuity crossing the Ionian domain (Victor Hensen–Medina fault) and the Hyblean–Pelagian domain (Sicily channel fault system). Once decoupled, the Adria plate underwent a clockwise rotation, at the expense of E–W shortening in the Hyblean–Pelagian domain and in the northern Nubian margin. The shortening in the Pelagian domain was accommodated by the northward escape of the Adventure wedge, which in turn caused the northward displacement of the eastern Maghrebian sector. The indentation of these structures into the Alpine–Apennine material lying east of the Corsica–Sardinia block induced an east to southeastward escape of wedges (southern Apennines and Calabria). This occured at the expense of the remnant Ionian Tethys oceanic domain and the thinned Adriatic margin. The extensional regime that developed in the wake of the migrating wedges led to the formation of the central and southern Tyrrhenian basins. In the northern Nubian belts, the westward push of the Adria–Hyblean–Pelagian domain has been accommodated by oroclinal bending, thrusting and uplifting across the Tell and Atlas belts. This geodynamic context might explain some features of the seismicity time pattern observed in the Tell system.

It is hypothesized that the present tectonic setting of the Anatolian, Aegean and Balkan regions has been deeply influenced by the different deformation styles of the inner and outer belts which constituted the Oligocene Tethyan system. Stressed by the Arabian indenter, this buoyant structure has undergone a westward escape and strong bending. The available evidence suggests that in the Plio–Pleistocene time frame, the inner metamorphic core mainly deformed without undergoing major fragmentations, whereas the orogenic belts which flanked that core (Pontides, Balkanides, Dinarides and Hellenides) behaved as mainly brittle structures, undergoing marked fractures and fragmentations. This view can plausibly explain the formation of the Eastern (Crete–Rhodes) and Western (Peloponnesus) Hellenic Arcs, the peculiar time-space features of the Cretan basins, the development of the Cyprus Arc, the North Aegean strike-slip fault system, the southward escapes of the Antalya and Peloponnesus wedges and the complex tectonic setting in the Balkan zone. These tectonic processes have mostly developed since the late Late Miocene, in response to the collision of the Tethyan belt with the Adriatic continental domain, which accelerated the southward bending of the Anatolian and Aegean sectors, at the expense of the Levantine and Ionian oceanic domains. The proposed interpretation may help us to understand the connection between the ongoing tectonic processes and the spatio-temporal distribution of major earthquakes, increasing the chances of estimating the long-term seismic hazard in the study area. In particular, it is suggested that seismic activity in the Serbo–Macedonian zone may be favored by the post-seismic relaxation that develops after seismic crises in the Epirus thrust front and inhibited/delayed by the activations of the North Anatolian fault system.