Kaiwen Leong

This study replicates and extends Baker and Wurgler's (2006) analysis on investor sentiment's impact on stock returns. We confirm their findings by demonstrating the significant cross‐sectional effect of sentiment in both their original sample (1963–2002) and a new sample (2002–2023). Expanding the scope, we introduce a monthly sentiment measure and analyze the U.S. market (2002–2023) and the Chinese market. Our results show that the predictive strength of sentiment indicators can shift or invert over time. In the Chinese market, sentiment's expected cross‐sectional effects disappear when foundational conditions, such as stock valuation variance, are not met.

Using over 11,000 unlicensed loans to over 1,000 borrowers in Singapore, we provide basic information about an understudied market: illegal moneylending. Borrowers and lenders interact frequently and rely primarily on relational contracts to enforce their agreements. Borrowers have high discount rates, often have gambling and/or substance abuse problems, and often repay late. While lenders sometimes resort to nonfinancial punishments, the primary cost of late repayment is the compounding of a very high interest rate. Consistent with our view that lenders cannot extract all surplus, a crackdown on illegal lending raised interest rates and lowered the size of loans.

In this paper, we investigate optimal delegation mechanisms in the presence of countervailing conflicts of interest in the context of principal–agent problems. We introduce two dimensions of conflict of interest—pandering incentives related to the outside option and project biases. We compare three delegation mechanisms: full delegation, veto-based delegation, and communication (no delegation). Contrary to conventional one-dimensional conflict models, our findings reveal a non-monotonic relationship between pandering incentives and bias. These conflicts counterbalance each other, resulting in a principal’s benefit from delegation not strictly decreasing with increased bias. Surprisingly, delegation to a biased agent can be advantageous in certain scenarios. This research sheds light on the complex dynamics of delegation mechanisms when confronted with countervailing conflicts of interest, offering insights into decision-making in principal–agent relationships.

We conducted an experiment with 204 youth inmates to study how the intrinsic psychological cost of cheating that was shaped by peers changed inmates' cheating behavior. We find that innately dishonest inmates who naively revealed their higher willingness to cheat indeed cheated more in the actual game. When given the chance to observe an imperfect signal of whether a peer cheated, only innately dishonest inmates followed this signal and cheated more. This positive treatment effect increases with the saliency of the signal, and becomes more pronounced when the cheating signal is from an influential peer.

We estimate a structural model of bargaining between a branch of a large transnational gang and pushers using data from detailed records kept by the gang. The model allows for the gang’s relative bargaining power to differ for pushers with different characteristics, such as those with addictions or borrowing problems. Exploiting supply shocks in our data, we use the estimated model to study the effectiveness of various enforcement strategies. We find that targeting pushers is more effective at reducing quantities sold compared to targeting the gang’s upstream supply chain.