Afshin Danehkar

Wetland ecosystems provide critical ecological services to both humans and wildlife. However, many wetlands around the world are facing challenges that threaten their ecological integrity and jeopardize their status as Ramsar Convention sites. The Shadegan Wetland, a Ramsar site since 1975, has been on the Montreux Record since 1993 due to changing conditions in the wetland. This study aims to utilize linear programming (LP) techniques to evaluate the status of criterion IV of the Ramsar Convention within the Shadegan Wetland. Using mathematical language and Excel software, we defined criterion IV and developed a linear model. The Lingo software was employed to verify the model by setting constraints for proxy variables (X variables). We selected constraints based on extreme climatic conditions, such as energy and water limitations, during the study period while considering the trend of each variable. By identifying effective interventions for promoting sustainable use of the wetland while preserving its ecological balance, the LP can support the efforts to re-nominate the Shadegan Wetland as a Ramsar site. Considering the critical conditions, the lowest value of Z in the studied period unravels the critical year as the target. Based on the result, 2015 with the lowest value of the Z index (− 0.36) was identified as the critical year in the entire study period starting from 2001–2019. In the critical year itself, the population of birds equals 50,000 birds, while the average population of birds over the course of the past 20 years was nearly 37,000 birds.

Wetland ecosystems around the world are of great importance in terms of providing valuable ecological services to people and wildlife. According to the Montreux Record, there is a list of wetlands which failed to fulfill the Ramsar Convention’s criteria. The Shadegan international site, registered in 1975 as a Ramsar Convention member, has been subjecting to the Montreux record since 1993 owning to the conditions change. The purpose of this study was to apply linear programming (LP) to measure the status of Criterion IV of the Ramsar Convention over the extent of Shadegan Wetland. Accordingly, Criterion IV was defined in mathematical language and run by the Excel software. The Lingo software was also used to verify the previously retrieved linear model by defining constraints for X variables. The constraints of this model were chosen based on the extreme events (i.e. evaporation threshold was determined based on water and energy limitations) of each variable during the study period considering the trend effect of each variable.

This research is the first literature review of the past three decades’ studies on the effects of urban development and land use/land cover (LULC) change on Iran’s climate change. For this purpose, 67 articles were found, evaluated, and classified according to the spatial and temporal scale, case study, period, data type, climatic factor, methodology, and meteorological data. Moreover, the reviewed literature methodologies were classified according to the purpose, method, and data source. According to the spatial-scale results, national- and city-level studies had the lowest and highest numbers, respectively. Tehran was the most case studies because Tehran is Iran’s capital and the largest metropolitan city. In terms of the temporal scale, studies predicting future changes (urban development and climate change) included 5% of the total literature. Satellite images were the most applied data in the reviewed literature (58%). Overall, 79% of the studies used temperature-related factors to explain the climatic impacts of urban growth and LULC conversion. Spatial modeling with 52% publications was the most used method, while numerical modeling with 12% studies was the least used method. This review showed broad study gaps in applying numerical models, neighborhood scales, urban micro-scale parameters, and long-term projections forecasts due to rapid urban development in Iran compared to the rest of the world. Therefore, our synthesis will assist researchers in facilitating better design for future studies in Iran and similar countries.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is known as a central part of the Earth’s response to human-induced global warming and is projected to continue to rise over the twenty-first century and beyond. The importance of coastal areas for both human and natural systems has led researchers to conduct extensive studies on coastal vulnerability to SLR impacts and develop adaptation options to cope with rising sea level. Investigations to date have focused mostly on developed and highly populated coasts, as well as diverse ecosystems including tidal salt marshes and mangroves. As a result, there is less information on vulnerability and adaptation of less-developed and developing coasts to sea-level rise and its associated impacts. Hence, this research aimed at outlining an appropriate coastal management framework to adapt to SLR on the coasts that are in the early stage of development. A coastal area with a low level of development, located in southern Iran along the Gulf of Oman, was selected as a case study. The types of lands exposed to the high-end estimates of SLR by 2100 were identified and used as the primary criteria in determining the practical adaptation approaches for developing coasts. The result of coastal exposure assessment showed that, of five exposed land cover types, bare land, which is potentially considered for development, has the highest percentage of exposure to future sea-level rise. In order to protect the exposed coastal lands from future development and increase adaptive capacity of coastal systems, we developed a Spatial Integrated SLR Adaptive Management Plan Framework (SISAMP) based on an exposure reduction approach. Spatial land management tools and coastal exposure assessment models along with three other key components were integrated into the proposed conceptual framework to reduce coastal vulnerability through minimizing exposure of coastal communities to SLR-induced impacts. This adaptation plan provides a comprehensive approach for sustainable coastal management in a changing climate, particularly on developing coasts.

Green space and its spatial formation are important elements of public welfare in urban environments and green ecosystems in big cities largely contribute to the mental and physical health of citizens. Tehran is Iran’s biggest and most polluted city and air pollution in this city causes loss of human lives due to respiratory diseases. The effect of green area has been less studied in former researches in Tehran, and the reducing effects of green landscape on the mortality of respiratory diseases have not yet been evaluated. To measure the effects of green area landscape patterns (fragmentation, area-edge, shape, and aggregation) on public health, the current study evaluated the pathways and effects of green space on air pollution and the mortality of respiratory diseases using structural equation modeling approach and the partial least squares method. The results of the study indicated green space has a significant mitigating effect on air pollution and mortality of respiratory diseases and also air pollution has a meaningful increasing effect on mortality due to respiratory diseases in Tehran. The most important latent variable in green space is class area that indicates more area of green space is correlated with less mortality of respiratory diseases. The most important indicator of air pollution was the PM_2.5 that needs to be considered and controlled by urban policymakers. Accordingly, maximizing the green area and its cohesion and minimizing fragmentation and green patch edge can contribute to a reduction in air pollution and consequently lower mortality of citizens.

Land management and biodiversity protection are highly dependent on ecosystem classification. To identify the ecosystems, often ecologically homogenous areas are distinguished based on physical and biological features at various scales. These areas can also be considered as biodiversity surrogates for protection policies and planning. We classified the terrestrial areas of Iran into ecosystems using revised and updated layers of landform and climate as our two main criteria. Moreover, we applied a revised vegetation layer as the confirmatory criterion. At a scale of 1:1,000,000, we obtained a total of 119 homogenous ecological units, and based on the dominant vegetation types, we classified them into 21 terrestrial ecosystems at the national level. Of these ecosystems, 11 were dominated by vegetation, and the remaining 10 had sparse nondominant vegetation. Evaluation of the least and most frequent ecosystem patches and ranking of their size classes using landscape metrics provided an information basis for better land protection planning. We maintain that each ecosystem needs to be represented by a protected area and its size and distribution also helps us form a comprehensive and effective protection network in Iran. Graphical abstract

Protection of mangrove forests entails the decrease and restriction of their injudicious uses by local people and therefore imposes opportunity costs on poor local communities, which often depend on these forest resources for their subsistence. This study aims to quantify the economic opportunity cost of conservation for coastal communities living in areas adjacent to mangrove forests in the southern coasts of Iran. The main commercial uses of the mangrove forests in this area are restricted to fishing, tourist boating trips, and limited leaves cutting. We applied a choice experiment method to measure the costs of the forest exploitation reduction under hypothetical protection scenarios in which local users would receive monetary compensation to lessen or forgo mangrove forest utilization. The results showed that local communities are willing to accept lower compensation when the protection is meant to decrease the frequency of Hara cutting and fishing, as opposed to banning recreational opportunities. The mean WTA was estimated to be 55 662 500 IRR.hsld-1.yr-1 (2026 USD), which was generally lower than opportunity costs in the form of foregone income. Before implementing any policies related to equity, our findings can provide policymakers with useful prior knowledge and prescription. La protection des forêts de mangroves entraîne la diminution et la restriction de leurs utilisations excessives par les populations locales et impose donc des coûts d’opportunité sur les communautés locales pauvres, qui dépendent souvent de ces ressources forestières pour leur subsistance. Cette étude vise à quantifier le coût d’opportunité économique de la conservation pour les communautés côtières qui vivent dans les zones adjacentes aux forêts de mangroves dans les côtes du sud de l’Iran. Les principales utilisations commerciales des forêts de mangroves dans cette région sont limitées à la pêche, aux voyages en bateau de tourisme, et à la coupe de feuilles réglementée. Nous avons appliqué une méthode d’expérimentation des choix pour mesurer les coûts de la réduction de l’exploitation forestière dans des scénarios hypothétiques de protection dans lesquels les utilisateurs locaux recevraient une compensation monétaire pour réduire ou renoncer à l’utilisation de la forêt de mangrove. Les résultats ont montré que les communautés locales sont prêtes à accepter une compensation inférieure lorsque la protection est destinée à diminuer la fréquence de la coupe du Hara et la pêche, par opposition à l’interdiction de possibilités de loisirs. La WTA moyenne a été estimée à 55.662.500 IRR.hsld-1.yr-1 (2026 USD), ce qui était généralement plus bas que les coûts d’opportunité sous forme de manque à gagner. Avant la mise en œuvre des politiques relatives à l’équité, nos résultats peuvent fournir aux décideurs des connaissances préalables utiles et de la prescription.