Guizhen Gao

Climate warming is redistributing insects, but species‐level projections alone rarely show which functional strategies are most exposed or how traits are linked to climatic niche structure. We developed a trait‐anchored framework connecting projected range change, functional trait‐space occupancy and climatic niche geometry in global butterflies. We compiled functional traits and georeferenced occurrences for 12,448 butterfly species across six families. Species distribution models estimated current suitable area (A _now ) and mid‐century suitable area under SSP5‐8.5 (A ₂₀₅₀ ), from which we derived an expansion index, E = (A ₂₀₅₀ − A _now )/A _now . Current suitable cells were projected into a two‐axis climatic harshness space to quantify climatic niche breadth and niche position. We then constructed a global functional trait space, estimated family‐level trait‐space occupancy with trait probability density surfaces, mapped the SDM‐derived expansion index with generalised additive models and tested trait–niche associations with structural equation models. Butterfly functional strategies formed a pronounced core–edge structure. Family core fractions (A50/A99) ranged from 17% to 33%, and standardised total trait‐space extent (A99) varied from 0.12 to 0.85. Projected range change formed a nonlinear, contraction‐dominated trait‐space response surface: mean predicted expansion rates were negative in both functional cores and edges across all families, although contraction intensity and the probability of weakly positive fitted values differed among families. In the pooled SEM, Seasonality was negatively associated with climatic niche breadth ( β = −0.14), whereas Environmental affinity ( β = 0.21) and Diapause timing ( β = 0.13) were positively associated with niche position. Projected climate‐change responses were structured across combinations of functional traits rather than along single traits alone. By linking SDM‐derived range change to functional trait‐space occupancy and climatic niche geometry, this framework shifts vulnerability assessment from species counts toward functional strategy coverage and identifies trait–niche pathways that warrant targeted validation. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

The Taklamakan Desert, the primary source of sand and dust in China, has a significant impact on PM_2.5 concentrations in the urban belt around the Tarim Basin. In this study, moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) images and machine learning algorithms were used to simulate PM_2.5 concentrations and analyze deaths from ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer (LC), and stroke (STK) attributed to PM_2.5. From 2015 to 2024, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) showed a decreasing trend, and the spatial distribution pattern gradually increased from west to east. The counties and cities with higher average PM_2.5 concentrations during the 2024 dust-prone season were Awati County, Alar City, Moyu County, and Aksu City, with average concentrations of 89.7 μg/m³, 88.8 μg/m³, 86.0 μg/m³, and 84.1 μg/m³, respectively. PM_2.5 concentrations during the non-dust season were significantly lower (approximately 50%) than those during the dust-prone season. Among the four major fatal diseases, STK and IHD accounted for the majority of attributable deaths, with proportions exceeding 80% of the total. The results show that PM_2.5 concentrations can be accurately monitored over a large scale, addressing the shortage of fixed monitoring stations, and providing a theoretical basis for sustainable development of ecological environment, health-risk management and control in the urban belt around the Tarim Basin.

BACKGROUND: Tephritid fruit flies are among the most damaging horticultural pests in China, and their ranges and co‐occurrence patterns are shifting under accelerated trade and a warming climate. Yet cross‐species assessments that jointly evaluate niche dynamics, phylogenetic relatedness, and interspecific associations remain scarce, limiting decision‐relevant risk mapping. Here we target eight high‐impact Tephritidae species in China ( Carpomya vesuviana , Bactrocera dorsalis , Zeugodacus cucurbitae , Zeugodacus tau , Bactrocera scutellata , Bactrocera minax , Bactrocera correcta , and Bactrocera latifrons ) and aim to quantify current and future suitable ranges, richness hotspots, niche overlap, phylogenetic structure, and association patterns, to support coordinated surveillance and climate‐adaptive management. RESULTS: We coupled ensemble species distribution models (SDM) with ENMTools niche metrics, richness mapping, Hierarchical Modeling of Species Communities for residual species associations, and phylogenetic indices to evaluate spatiotemporal shifts under present climate and a late‐century SSP5–8.5 scenario. SDMs achieved mean test area under the curve = 0.93–0.98 and true skill statistics = 0.86–0.95. Hellinger's I niche similarity ranged from 0.56 to 0.96, and geographic range overlap was 0.01–0.80. Under near‐current conditions, per‐species suitable area was 136.03 × 10 ⁴ to 292.45 × 10 ⁴ km ² ; by the 2090s SSP5‐8.5, expansions reached up to 338 × 10 ⁴ km ² , with richness hotspots shifting northward into the central, eastern, and Xinjiang regions. The net relatedness index indicated pronounced phylogenetic homogenization (elevated clustering in northern provinces), and facilitative associations—previously concentrated in southern China—expanded across central and northern landscapes under warming. CONCLUSION: Warming will enlarge and homogenize suitable habitats for Tephritidae pests and strengthen synergistic interspecific associations, amplifying invasion risk. The proposed spatiotemporal coupled framework yields decision‐ready, cross‐species risk evidence to guide targeted surveillance and climate‐adaptive management. © 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.

The globose scale (GS) Sphaerolecanium prunastri (Boyer de Fonscolombe) (Hemiptera: Coccidae) is a serious pest affecting plants within the Rosaceae, notably wild apricot, Armeniaca vulgaris (Lamarck). Following its initial detection in 2019, more than 80% of valleys with wild apricots have become affected in the Ili River Basin of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China. This study assessed GS population dynamics post invasion and its effects on the growth and reproductive traits of wild apricot trees from 2019 to 2024. Nymph densities have decreased but remain high, with densities per 20 cm of shoots of 986 (1^st-instar nymphs) and 120 (2^nd-instar nymphs) in 2024, respectively. Damage has declined, with high damage rankings decreasing from 24% to 11% of wild apricot trees. However, the mortality of trees was higher (25%) in infested than non-infested areas (13%). Interestingly, GS feeding stimulated the growth of spring shoots but significantly reduced the reproductive capacity of wild apricots. Heavily infested trees exhibited increased shoot length (2–3 times), decreased fruit yield (20-fold), lower flowering percentage (8-fold), and reduced flower bud density (2-fold) compared to non-infested trees. Overall, despite a decrease in damage severity, wild apricot forests remain threatened by GS. Implementing integrated pest management (IPM) strategies is essential for effective GS management and the recovery of wild apricot forests.

The globose scale (GS) Sphaerolecanium prunastri (Boyer de Fonscolombe) (Hemiptera: Coccidae) is a serious pest affecting plants within the Rosaceae, notably wild apricot, Armeniaca vulgaris (Lamarck). Following its initial detection in 2019, more than 80% of valleys with wild apricots have become affected in the Ili River basin of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China. This study assessed GS population dynamics post invasion and its effects on growth and reproductive traits of wild apricot trees from 2019 to 2024. Nymph densities decreased over the years but remained high, with densities on shoots per 20 cm of 986 (1st instar nymph) and 120 (2nd instar nymph) in 2024, respectively. Damage has declined, with high damage rankings decreasing from 24% to 11% of wild apricot trees. However, mortality of trees was higher (25%) in infested than non-infested areas (13%). Interestingly, GS feeding stimulated the growth of spring shoots but significantly reduced the reproductive capacity of wild apricot. Heavily infested trees exhibited increased shoot length (2-3 times), decreased fruit yield (20-fold), lower flowering percentage (8-fold), and reduced flower bud density (2-fold) compared to non-infested trees. Overall, despite a decrease in damage severity, wild apricot forests remain threatened by GS. Implementing Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies is essential for effective GS management and recovery of wild apricot forests.

The ladybirds Coccinella septempunctata and Harmonia axyridis are important biocontrol agents for the small walnut aphid Chromaphis juglandicola, a key walnut pest. C. juglandicola outbreaks occur in walnut orchards, and walnut yields have declined. Intraguild predation (IGP) is prevalent among natural enemies that coexist in shared habitats and prey upon the same extraguild prey. We designed laboratory experiments to evaluate the potential for IGP between these two ladybirds at different temperatures and extraguild (EG) prey densities, and the ability of IGP to control EG prey under different conditions. We measured IGP rates in first instar larvae, female adults, and male adults (both starved for 24 h) in the vulnerable immature life stages of two ladybird eggs. Intraguild (IG) prey (H. axyridis eggs or C. septempunctata eggs) and EG prey (C. juglandicola) consumption were tallied after 24 h. Temperature and EG prey density influenced IGP rates, with temperature contributing the most to the variance. IGP increased with increasing temperature (15–35 °C), with both factors interactively influencing the EG prey consumption rate and exhibiting highly significant effects. EG prey consumption increased with temperature and density. This research provides theoretical support for the rational use of H. axyridis and C. septempunctata in the joint biological control of C. juglandicola

As an important ecosystem, the wild fruit forest in the Tianshan Mountains is one of the origins of many fruit trees in the world. The wild fruit forest in Emin County, Xinjiang, China, was taken as the research area, the spatial and temporal distribution of the wild fruit forest was inverted using random forest and PLUS models, and the 2027 distribution pattern of the wild fruit forest was simulated and predicted. From 2007 to 2013, damage to the wild fruit forest from tourism and overgrazing was very serious, and the area occupied by the wild fruit forest decreased rapidly from 9.59 km² to 7.66 km². From 2013 to 2020, suitable temperatures and reasonable tourism management provided strong conditions for the rejuvenation of wild fruit forests. The distance of the center of gravity of the wild fruit forest increased, and the density of distribution of the wild fruit forest in the northwest direction of the study area also increased. It is predicted that the wild fruit forest in the study area will show a steady and slowly increasing trend in places far away from tourist areas and with more complex terrain. It is suggested that non-permanent fences be set up as buffer zones between wild fruit forests, ensuring basic maintenance of wild fruit forests, limiting human disturbance such as overgrazing, and reducing the risk of soil erosion.

The globose scale (GS) (Sphaerolecanium prunastri Boyer de Fonscolombe) is a sucking insect that feeds on saps of wild apricot tree (Prunus armeniaca L.) in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of northwestern China. It feeds on branches of wild apricot leading to poor growth, leaf yellowing and leaf drop, and sometimes mortality. Since the initial infestation in 2018, all the main valleys of wild apricot trees have been affected, but there is little research on the host’s physiological response to GS infestation. We measured the differences in growth between infested and non-infested wild apricots. The results showed that the diameter of shoot branches, the fresh weight, dry weight, length, width, area, and chlorophyll content of leaves, and the longitudinal diameter of fruit, were all significantly less for infested wild apricot trees than for un-infested wild apricot. The branch length of shoots, cross diameter, and weight of fruit also decreased, although the differences were not significant. Overall, GS infestation significantly reduced the growth of wild apricot trees, and may accelerate the damage by GS to wild apricot over time.