Snežana Đurđić

The development of tourism in ecologically sensitive areas, which are important for the comprehensive protection of natural heritage due to their biodiversity, geodiversity, and landscape diversity, is a responsible and challenging process often identified as a source of conflict with nature protection. When tourism development plans focus on creating tourist destinations within protected areas, the main challenge is maintaining or establishing a balance between economic and social development goals while simultaneously preserving and enhancing natural values. Can tourism development in general contribute to improving nature protection? This paper will analyze potential benefits (such as in situ strict protection of natural and cultural heritage, improved economic opportunities and quality of life for local communities, and enhanced tourist experiences) and negative impacts (including increased environmental risks through direct and indirect eff ects of tourism and possible negative impacts on the traditional lifestyles of local populations). Promoting and planning the sustainable development of tourism is recognized as an approach aimed at increasing positive and reducing negative impacts on natural values. This scientific paper will provide a comprehensive analysis of these considerations based on selected case studies, Nature park Sićevačka gorge and Special Nature Reserve Suva mountain.

This study investigates projected future climate conditions in five protected areas located within the Danube Region of the Republic of Serbia: Fruška Gora National Park, Đerdap National Park, Gornje Podunavlje Special Nature Reserve, Deliblatska Peščara Special Nature Reserve, and Koviljsko-Petrovaradinski Rit Special Nature Reserve. Based on climate model projections, the primary concern centers on altered precipitation patterns combined with rising temperatures. These changes are expected to subject natural vegetation and entire ecosystems to prolonged dry periods interspersed with more frequent extreme precipitation events. To evaluate these climatic changes, three climate indices are employed: the Forestry Aridity Index, the Hydro-Thermal Coefficient, and Ellenberg's Climate Quotient. These indices are analyzed under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios-RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5-to estimate conditions through the end of the 21st century. Climate data were obtained from the Digital Climate Atlas of the Republic of Serbia and processed using QGIS 3.36.3 software. The average values were calculated for the following time periods: 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. Historical (1961-1990) and contemporary climate observations (1991-2020) are also incorporated to establish a baseline for assessing future climate extremes. Anticipated negative impacts are contextualized using documented consequences of past extreme climate events. Notably, the years 2000, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2017, 2022, and 2024 have been identified as particularly dry since the beginning of the century, during which protected areas experienced vegetation stress, elevated wildfire risk, and adverse effects on wildlife. This research aims to determine whether the climatic conditions observed during these years could become a new norm by the end of the century and to assess the implications for the long-term resilience of protected ecosystems in the region. The results are crucial for informing adaptive management strategies and enhancing the capacity of conservation efforts to respond to climate-induced stressors. By providing spatially and temporally explicit projections, this study supports evidence-based decision-making in nature protection and sustainable management planning.

The Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus is a rare and endangered woodpecker on the Balkan Peninsula. Despite being widely distributed in Northern Europe, its distribution on the Balkan Peninsula is limited to high-altitude forest habitats, where it represents a glacial relict. Assessing the climate change impacts on its distribution can be crucial for improving the conservation and future survival of this specialist species on the Balkan Peninsula. We used species distribution modelling (SDM) to identify its potential distribution in the past (last interglacial and last glacial maximum), present, and future (2050 and 2070). Our results indicate that this species had the greatest distribution during the last glacial maximum, after which its distribution contracted to areas where suitable environment persisted (high altitudes). The largest territory of the Balkan Peninsula has an unsuitable environment for the species to inhabit, while highly suitable habitats have the smallest share in the total area of suitable habitats. All future models show a decrease in the area of suitable habitats compared with the current period, indicating that global warming has a negative effect on the distribution of the species. We recommend that conservation activities must be of greater extent to ensure the species’ survival in the Balkans.

Deforestation and forest degradation are one of the most complex ecological challenges worldwide. Multispectral imaging and remote sensing help researchers and forest managers to quantify forest loss and degradation. By combining multiple bands of satellite data, multispectral indices can highlight changes in forest structure and reduce the cost and time required for field research. In this research multispectral indices and remote sensing are used in different areas of forestry (such as deforestation, wildfires, phenology) and five examples of remote sensing in forest monitoring are presented. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is used to quantify deforestation in ski center in Kopaonik National park. The Normalized Burn Ration (NBR) is used to assess forest fire damage in Šar planina National Park. The Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) is used to monitor some phenological events in Fruška gora National Park. The moisture content of vegetation in Djerdap National Park is analyzed with the Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) and pest damage is monitored with the NDVI and the Normalized Difference Rededge Vegetation Index (NDRE) in Tara National Park. The results of these five case study analyses show that multispectral imaging provides the most evident results in monitoring deforestation, while pest and disease damage is difficult to detect.

A successful process of nature protection requires an integral assessment of not only the recent in situ status of natural values (biodiversity, geodiversity and landscape diversity), but also an assessment of the quality of their future state that will be achieved through the management process. The complexity of this process becomes even more significant if natural values are located in border areas. The benefits achieved through effective cross-border cooperation in the field of nature protection are multiple, i.e. they are ecological, economic, cultural, and not that rare, political. Numerous challenges stemming not only from the various legislative and institutional frameworks that characterize the field of nature protection in Serbia and the countries in its immediate vicinity, can be overcome thanks to the designation of ecological corridors and networks, transboundary protected areas (e.g. the UNESCO Mura-Drava-Danube Biosphere Reserve) etc. Nevertheless, there are also examples of cross-border cooperation in the fi eld of nature protection that are still insuffi ciently realized and affi rmed in the general public, as for example Stara Planina, national parks in the middle part of the Drina river etc. While the process of overcoming formal restrictions continues, the possibilities of cross-border cooperation are still not closed to enthusiastic local communities and their initiatives.

Identifying geographic areas with habitats suitable for the presence of priority species is of essential importance in conservation planning. A useful tool to identify these areas is a species distribution modelling (SDM), which is a method that defines statistical relationship between species records and environmental variables in the localities where the species is present. To test the possibility of applying this method in conservation planning, this study focused on the Three-toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Piciformes: Picidae) because it is a glacial relict on the Balkan Peninsula that is distributed only in montane coniferous and mixed forests with significant amounts of dead wood. As a habitat specialist, it is vulnerable to environmental changes, making it a suitable indicator species for forests with natural properties. These forests are threatened by modern forestry which removes the dead wood necessary for the Three-toed Woodpecker’s survival, and land-use changes, such as urbanisation of mountains. Moreover, as a glacial relict, this species is threatened by global warming which represents a challenge for its future survival. The results show that highly and moderately suitable habitats (habitat categories essential for specialist species) have the smallest areas in total suitability of the Balkan Peninsula. Along with their limited presence, what makes conservation of these habitats more difficult is the fact that their distribution is mostly fragmented. For these reasons, ensuring their preservation and connectivity of given habitats should become a conservation priority. Geographic areas deemed important by SDM, such as the Dinarides mountain range in our case study, can be used as a focus for further research and field trips, thereby saving both time and resources. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on species distribution by creating future projections using global climate models. Distribution models can also be used to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas. These examples demonstrate that using SDM can produce the knowledge necessary for conservation, which makes this method useful in nature conservation and planning.

Open satellite data enable a comprehensive multispectral analysis of vegetation worldwide. The importance of these analyzes is particularly emphasized in the area of large and impassable forests. Due to the vulnerability of forest ecosystems as a result of climate change, multispectral analysis will make a crucial contribution to proper forest management in the event of drought and to reducing the risk of forest fi res. In the Fruska gora National Park among more than 20 forest communities, there is a community of sessile oak and hornbeam with butcher's broom (Rusco-Querco-Carpinetum), as well as mountain beech forests with lime (Tilia-fagetum submontanum) of high value, and their protection should be a high priority, while multispectral analysis can improve their monitoring and support forest managers in decision-making. In this paper we use multispectral data collected by the Sentinel-2 satellite and downloaded from the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem Service. NDVI - Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDRE - Normalized Differenece Red Edge Vegetation Index and NDMI - Normalized Difference Moisture Index of the Fruska gora National Park area are calculated in the open software Q-gis in 10 meter and 20 meter spatial resolution for specific days selected according to the degree of cloud cover at the time of satellite observations and other meteorological conditions. All three indices are based on the values of the red, red edge, shortwave infrared and infrared spectra. The values of the indices depend on the vegetation conditions. Higher values indicate better vegetation condition, lower values indicate drought, which could be the result of dry periods, pest and disease outbreaks or certain phenological events in certain seasons. Low values could also indicate deforestation or dieback due to forest fires. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the variability of vegetation indices as a consequence of precipitation and air temperature changes. The observation period extends from 2017 to 2022.

Vloga sezonskosti v trajnostnem razvoju turizma je večplastna in kompleksna. Povezava med sezonskostjo in trajnostnostjo je še bolj zapletena, ko gre za zavarovana območja. To povezavo smo proučili na primerih izbranih zavarovanih gorskih območij v Srbiji ‒ narodnih parkov Kopaonik in Tara ter naravnih parkov Stara planina in Zlatibor. Za merjenje sezonskosti in prikaz neuravnoteženosti mesečne porazdelitve števila turističnih prenočitev v omenjenih destinacijah v obdobju 2013‒2021 smo uporabili Ginijev indeks. Rezultati raziskave kažejo, da imajo analizirana zavarovana gorska območja v Srbiji različne vrednosti Ginijevega indeksa, kar je pogojeno z njihovimi naravnimi predispozicijami za razvoj turizma (npr. nadmorska višina in trajanje snežne odeje), hkrati pa tudi stopnje turistične razvitosti območja. Da bi zmanjšali vplive sezonskosti, v vsaki izmed obravnavanih destinacij izvajajo alternativne oblike turizma in aktivnosti.

The territory of the Republic of Serbia is vulnerable to various natural disasters, among which forest fires stand out. In relation with climate changes, the number of forest fires in Serbia has been increasing from year to year. Protected natural areas are especially endangered by wildfires. For Nature Park Golija, as the second largest in Serbia, with an area of 75,183 ha, and with MaB Reserve Golija-Studenica on part of its territory (53,804 ha), more attention should be paid in terms of forest fire mitigation. GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis are indispensable when it comes to spatial analysis for the purpose of natural disaster risk management. Index-based and fuzzy AHP methods were used, together with TOPSIS method for forest fire susceptibility zonation. Very high and high forest fire susceptibility zone were recorded on 26.85% (Forest Fire Susceptibility Index) and 25.75% (fuzzy AHP). The additional support for forest fire prevention is realized through an additional Internet of Thing (IoT)-based sensor network that enables the continuous collection of local meteorological and environmental data, which enables low-cost and reliable real-time fire risk assessment and detection and the improved long-term and short-term forest fire susceptibility assessment. Obtained results can be applied for adequate forest fire risk management, improvement of the monitoring, and early warning systems in the Republic of Serbia, but are also important for relevant authorities at national, regional, and local level, which will be able to coordinate and intervene in a case of emergency events.