Robert Jeszke

This article presents the results of a comparative scenario analysis of the “green hydrogen” development pathways in Poland and the EU in the 2050 perspective. We prepared the scenarios by linking three models: two sectoral models for the power and transport sectors, and a Computable General Equilibrium model (d-Place). The basic precondition for the large-scale use of hydrogen, in both Poland and in European Union countries, is the pursuit of ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. The EU plans indicate that the main source of hydrogen will be renewable energy (RES). “Green hydrogen” is seen as one of the main methods with which to balance energy supply from intermittent RES, such as solar and wind. The questions that arise concern the amount of hydrogen required to meet the energy needs in Poland and Europe in decarbonized sectors of the economy, and to what extent can demand be covered by internal production. In the article, we estimated the potential of the production of “green hydrogen”, derived from electrolysis, for different scenarios of the development of the electricity sector in Poland and the EU. For 2050, it ranges from 76 to 206 PJ/y (Poland) and from 4449 to 5985 PJ/y (EU+). The role of hydrogen as an energy storage was also emphasized, highlighting its use in the process of stabilizing the electric power system. Hydrogen usage in the energy sector is projected to range from 67 to 76 PJ/y for Poland and from 1066 to 1601 PJ/y for EU+ by 2050. Depending on the scenario, this implies that between 25% and 35% of green hydrogen will be used in the power sector as a long-term energy storage.

Transformation of road transport sector through replacing of internal combustion vehicles with zero-emission technologies is among key challenges to achievement of climate neutrality by 2050. In a constantly developing economy, the demand for transport services increases to ensure continuity in the supply chain and passenger mobility. Deployment of electric technologies in the road transport sector involves both businesses and households, its pace depends on the technological development of zero-emission vehicles, presence of necessary infrastructure and regulations on emission standards for new vehicles entering the market. Thus, this study attempts to estimate how long combustion vehicles will be in use and what the state of the fleet will be in 2050. For obtainment of results the TR³E partial equilibrium model was used. The study simulates the future fleet structure in passenger and freight transport. The results obtained for Poland for the climate neutrality (NEU) scenario show that in 2050 the share of vehicles using fossil fuels will be ca. 30% in both road passenger and freight transport. The consequence of shifts in the structure of the fleet is the reduction of CO₂ emissions ca. 80% by 2050 and increase of the transport demand for electricity and hydrogen.

The achievement of climate neutrality in the European Union by 2050 will not be possible solely through a reduction in fossil fuels and the development of energy generation from renewable sources. Large-scale implementation of various technologies is necessary, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), carbon capture and storage (CCS), and carbon capture and utilisation (CCU), as well as industrial electrification, the use of hydrogen, the expansion of electromobility, low-emission agricultural practices, and afforestation. This research is devoted to an analysis of BECCS as a negative emissions technology (NET) and the assessment of its implementation impact upon the possibility of achieving climate neutrality in the EU. The modelling approach utilises tools developed within the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project and includes the MEESA energy model and the d-PLACE CGE economic model. This article identifies the scope of the required investment in generation capacity and the amount of electricity production from BECCS necessary to meet the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets in the EU, examining the technology’s impact on the overall system costs and marginal abatement costs (MACs). The modelling results confirm the key role of BECCS technology in achieving EU climate goals by 2050.

Climate neutrality achievement in the European Union assumes the necessity of efforts and transformations in most economic sectors of its member-states. The farm sector in Poland, being the second largest contributor to the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and in the top fifth of farm sectors in the EU-27 countries, needs to undergo structural and technological transformations to contribute to the climate action goals. The article assesses the potential impacts of Poland’s climate neutrality achievement path on the domestic farm sector in terms of its structure, output, income, and prices of agricultural products. The approach is based on complex economic modelling combining computable general equilibrium (CGE) and optimisation modelling, with the farm sector model consisting of farm, structural, and market modules. While the modelling results cover three GHG emission-reduction scenarios up to 2050, to understand the transformation impact within varying policy approaches, the study for each scenario of farm sector development also outlines three policy options: carbon pricing, forced emission limit, and carbon subsidies. Results in all scenarios and policy options indicate a strong foreseeable impact on agricultural output and prices (mainly livestock production), shifts in the production structure toward crops, as well as changes in farm income along the analysed timeframe.

The rapid increases of European Union Allowance (EUA) prices and very high market volatility, resulting mainly from the growing role of speculative entities, can contribute to forming a price bubble. This may cause the market instability and could have a implications on planning future reduction investments by European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) participants. That is why they need some kind of ‘safety valve’, an effective EU ETS instrument, which can be triggered when the situation requires it. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the current legislative rules of the EU ETS protect against sudden EUA price fluctuation and the risk of formation of a price bubble. This paper tries to assess the potential EUA price bubble and to review of existing instruments within the EU ETS, analysing their efficiency using different assumptions and identify channels of possible other market instruments to efficiently prevent the carbon market instability caused by rising EUA prices and market speculation. We argue that the European Commission (EC) does not currently have an appropriate market instrument to respond to the EUA price fluctuation. Moreover, there are some legislative loopholes in the system, which may encourage market speculators to influence EUA prices, and there is need to introduce better market safeguards.