Ghulam Ghouse

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of war events on the performance of self-regulatory organizations (SROs), specifically equity markets. Furthermore, it is segregated into classifications: developing, emerging, stand-alone and frontier regions, including America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and the Pacific. This study aims to precisely quantify and assess war-induced volatility and drawdown risks across global SROs, with a focus on structural breaks and recovery potential. Design/methodology/approach: The sample data includes daily SRO returns from 80 countries between January 3, 2022 and December 31, 2024. Various methodologies are used; the Chow test is used to identify structural breaks during the Russia–Ukraine war. The GARCH model estimates the volatility series, and impulse indicator saturation (IIS) is applied to the event-window analysis. Maximum drawdown is widely used as a key measure of downside risk. The Calmar ratio (CR) provides a risk-adjusted performance measure that captures the speed and strength of the SRO’s recovery after major disruptions. The coefficient of variation is used in CRs to ensure robustness. Findings: The standalone SROs are most affected and face high drawdown risk. The European SROs have been severely shaken by the Ukraine crisis, while Asian SROs have been slightly affected. The developed SROs are less exposed to such shocks and have a chance of a speedy recovery. The emerging and frontier SROs have similar drawdown ratios, but the frontier SROs show lower strength ratios and weak recovery capacity. Research limitations/implications: This study used data on developing, emerging, stand-alone and frontier SROs, but it could be extended by conducting an analysis across regions. Practical implications: The paper can be extended to include further SROs in the region over a wide range of data. Originality/value: This study makes a novel contribution by using the IIS approach, structural break testing, volatility modeling and reaction and recovery estimators to explore war-induced uncertainty in SROs worldwide with greater precision. Unlike previous research, the approach simultaneously identifies unexpected events, volatility due to disruptions and market sensitivity across regions, and classifies SROs. This combined methodology provides a data-driven, comprehensive understanding of how war-induced and geopolitical crises emerge and spread worldwide.

We develop a theoretical framework to characterize the relationship between democracy and energy use on a global scale. We utilize generalized method of Moments (GMM) model to control endogeneity on balanced, global panel dataset encompassing 61 countries across six geographic regions. Contradictory to conventional understanding that democracies may have positive association with energy use, our findings reveal that democracy has a significant negative association with energy use. We put here that democracies prioritize Sustainability as energy use declines, globally. These novel results are justified because often democracies can foster a culture of environmental awareness through active civil societies and open public discourse. This can lead to public pressure on governments to enact stricter environmental regulations and prioritize energy conservation. Our results highlight that the previously under-explored connections between democracy, social capital, and energy consumption, paving the way for future research and policy development.

The authors would like to make the following corrections about the published paper

Artificial intelligence (AI) has played a pivotal role in enhancing the efficiency of financial technology (Fintech), ultimately contributing to the stability of the banking sector. The advancements in Fintech driven by AI tools are significantly improving risk management within the banking industry. This paper investigates the mediating role of AI in the relationship between Fintech and financial stability in the context of Islamic and conventional banks across selected countries in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). It employs structural equation modeling (SEM) to explore the causal linkages across time domains. The results of this research identify that AI is a significant mediator, playing a critical role between Fintech and stability. It either mitigates or amplifies risks, depending on the regulatory framework and implementation practices in place. The analysis indicates that AI has a weak mediating effect in the short run, but a strong mediating effect in the long run between Fintech and stability. This research paper emphasizes the importance of developing robust, forward-thinking policies to leverage the benefits of AI. It also addresses the risks to financial stability in both Islamic and conventional banking systems.

Re-emerging geopolitical risks are a threat to economic progress at the global level, having far-reaching implications for socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable economic growth trajectories. This study focuses on the relationship between geopolitical risks and inclusive green growth. A panel dataset has been taken for all the variables at the global level over the time range of 2019-2024. Results suggested an inverse and statistically significant relationship between geopolitical risks and inclusive green growth. In addition to this, it was also found that economies having higher carbon dioxide emissions levels than the average value tend to have greater fragility in the relationship between geopolitical risks and inclusive green growth via channel analysis. This study can assist policy makers and researchers to work in the direction of improving the political environment, transparency, and institutions, along with achieving sustainable economic growth and a green environment.

In recent literature on financial economics, the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Financial Technology (Fintech) is being discussed as a means to achieve economic and financial stability. Our analysis is based on the development of FinTech and AI to achieve financial stability, which can further lead to economic stability. We have used structural equation modelling to examine the direct and indirect impacts of AI and FinTech on financial stability, with financial stability also acting as a mediator between AI and FinTech toward economic growth. We use data from selected OIC countries, and the sample set includes the conventional banking sector. Based on early-stage data, we see that it has been no more than 4 to 5 years since AI was introduced into the global arena, particularly in developing countries and multiple sectors. However, adoption comes with multiple challenges, causes, and risks, especially in the initial phases, which may have a negative impact on financial stability. Similarly, FinTech might harm financial stability in the conventional banking system, as AI adoption is currently in its early stages. Yet, AI and FinTech present a very interesting mode for studying the joint impact on economic growth, as they appear to be key components toward achieving financial stability and improving the functioning of conventional banking. The policies arising from the study indicate that in the initial phases, AI adoption is being carried out in multiple conventional banks in OIC countries, although its impact remains negative due to costs and risks.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and financial technology (fintech) are transforming the banking sector, not only in conventional systems but also within Islamic banking. There is a pressing need to assess the impact of AI-based fintech on the financial stability of Islamic banks. This study investigates the effects of AI and fintech, considering direct, indirect, mediating, and moderating relationships. The analysis is based on data from 2020 to 2023 for 35 selected OIC countries, using sources such as the World Development Indicators (WDI) and annual bank statements. A panel structural equation model (P-SEM) is employed to examine both direct and indirect path effects. The results show that capital adequacy and capitalization positively affect financial stability. In contrast, liquidity risk has a negative impact. Management quality also plays a significant role in enhancing financial stability. Among fintech indicators, the market and regulatory environment emerges as the most influential variable. However, due to the relatively small size of fintech in these economies, its direct impact may still appear negative. Despite this, fintech remains a crucial factor in promoting financial stability, as supported by the literature. The mediation effect of AI and fintech in this study is found to be positive and significant. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive and timely analysis of the AI-driven role of fintech in enhancing financial stability and supporting economic growth in the banking sector. It considers both financial and macroeconomic control variables and highlights the key importance of capitalization and management quality in maintaining stability.

Purpose: This study aims to test the non-linear impact of overall productive capacity on organizational sustainability for the Next-11 countries. It also includes the moderating role of environmental, social and governance (ESG).Design/methodology/approach: The panel auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method with pooled mean group (PMG) specification is applied to analyze the relationship between productive capacity and organizational sustainability for the period 2000 to 2023.Findings: The study finds an inverted U-shaped relationship between productive capacity and organizational sustainability, where increased capacity initially boosts sustainability but decreases it beyond an optimal point. ESG’s role is beneficial, moderating the impact from an inverted U-shaped relationship to a U-shaped relationship. The official exchange rate (OER) and energy transition (ENTR) show a negative impact on organizational sustainability.Research limitations/implications: Some of the weaknesses of this study might be hinged on the fact that the study targeted Next-11 countries only. This can be extended for other emerging economies. Second, the directional impacts are partial and monotone, but the U-shaped and inverted U-shaped impacts indicate the more complicated tendency of regional development, which needs further examination.Originality/value: The research delivers innovative insights into how ESG moderates the quadratic relationship between productive capacity and organizational sustainability for N-11 countries. Further, this study has also considered how OER and ENTR determine organizational sustainability.