Tianxin Zhao

Rapid urbanization in China greatly contributes to carbon emissions, while the industrial structure greatly contributes to changes in the variation of carbon emissions. This research addresses the impact of urbanization and industrial structure on carbon emissions from 2010 to 2018, by focusing on the Huaihe River Eco-economic Zone, which is an important economic corridor along the north–south division of China. Although many studies have focused on investigating the impact of urbanization or industrial structure on carbon emissions, few studies further addressed an analysis of the impact of both on carbon emissions, using multiple measurement models. This paper reveals the holistic and local impact of industrial structure and urbanization on carbon emissions, by integrating a threshold regression model with geographically weighted regression. The results are as follows: (1) From a holistic point of view, industrial structure and urbanization had both, single threshold, and double threshold effects on carbon emissions in the Huaihe River Eco-economic Zone. (2) From a regional perspective, the coefficients of industrial structure on carbon emissions were all positive, but the rate of increase gradually slowed down. The coefficients of urbanization on carbon emissions were all negative, reaching a maximum value of negative effect in 2013. Understanding the holistic and local impact of urbanization and industrial structure on carbon emissions provides governments with differentiated and forward-looking suggestions for mitigating carbon emissions in the Huaihe River Eco-economic Zone.