Camilo Micán

The development of renewable energy (RE) projects is closely tied to the financial attractiveness of these investments. Despite the extensive literature, most studies focus on a static analysis, which is no longer adequate for dealing properly with the uncertainty associated with RE projects. This study proposes a stochastic model based on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and the application of VaR (value at risk) and CvaR (conditional value at risk) measures for risk assessment. Using a hypothetical case consisting of a solar farm with a rated capacity of 10 MWp, the analysis was conducted for nine Colombian municipalities. The irradiation levels at each site were considered the sole source of uncertainty. In addition, the Colombian regulatory framework was considered, represented by accounting and tax benefits. The results obtained from this work made it possible to evaluate the effect of resource behavior on the financial risk level of PV projects. The results provide a ranking of the nine assessed municipalities from a financial point of view and highlight the influence of considering solar resources as a risk factor on the project´s financial expected performance.

The benefits of risk management in the context of project portfolios have been widely recognized in the literature. However, approaches that assess the risk of organizational development project portfolios from the perspective of how the portfolio delivers value to the parent organization remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, our research takes a constructivist approach and an organizational perspective on project portfolios. We conducted twenty-eight semi-structured interviews and used thematic analysis to identify and relate four themes of a comprehensive project portfolio risk assessment (PPRA) framework: "project portfolio as the organizational unit for PPRA"; "organizational capabilities as portfolio outcomes in which PPR can be assessed"; "project portfolio levels as sources of risk factors in PPRA"; and "balance between project portfolio attributes complexity". Within the framework of organizational development project portfolios, this study contributes to our understanding of PPRA by providing two propositions: (1) The capabilities to be generated by the project portfolio can be used as the portfolio primary results on which PPRA can assess the risk of the project portfolio, establishing the impact of PPR on the project portfolio value delivering to the parent organization, and (2) The risk factors that impact the project portfolio expected results can be represented into PPRA as ‘output-related’ risk factors and ‘outcome-related’ risk factors.

Current knowledge of risk management (RM) is mainly limited to single organizations. This paper investigates RM practices from a stakeholders’ perspective applicable to university–industry R&D collaboration (UIC) programs, a particular form of inter-organizational relationship. With a view to reducing the negative impact of risk associated with such UICs, and, as a result, increasing the success rate of the related programs and projects, an RM methodology has been developed from the perspective of the main stakeholders. The results reported here are based on a large-scale UIC between the Bosch Car Multimedia in Portugal and the University of Minho. Three research methods were applied in a complementary way: participant observation over seven years, analysis of various documents supporting the management of the programs and projects, and focus group involving seven key participants from different roles. The proposed RM methodology takes into account the three main stakeholders and their respective RM roles—Program Manager, Program and Project Management Officer, and Project Manager—and helps to manage the risks incurred by a UIC program while, at the same time, emphasizing the importance of taking the stakeholders’ perspective. In inter-organizational contexts, particularly in the case of university and industry, where there is a cultural gap between members, misunderstandings may occur about the role each key stakeholder should play. This paper provides a comprehensive guideline for the application of the methodology by means of a proposed set of specific RM practices. However, the research was conducted using a single case study, therefore limiting the results’ potential for generalization.

Project portfolios aim to impact organizational strategic goals, influencing both the organization’s business model and its processes. Nonetheless, the actual impact is dependent on the portfolio’s success, which is affected by the materialization of risk factors. This study aims to examine the tacit conceptualization of project portfolio risk as a risk measure explicitly based on project portfolio success itself. In order to focus on the portfolios of organizational development projects, Social Representation Theory was adopted to analyze empirical evidence from twenty-eight semi-structured interviews conducted with project portfolio practitioners. Findings showed that strategic fit, future preparedness, and stakeholder satisfaction were dimensions of success within which project portfolio risk could be conceptualized. Additionally, results evidenced that risk factors influenced project portfolio success through systematic and non-systematic impacts on project portfolio outputs, and also had direct impacts on project portfolio outcomes. This paper provides empirical evidence to back up the conceptualization of project portfolio risk explicitly oriented to portfolio success as a multidimensional risk measure. It represents a new avenue for conducting portfolio risk analysis for both practitioners and academics, orienting the decision-making process based on the portfolio success rather than only on the success of each project.

Digital Transformation (DT) has its own challenges and demands on organizational strategy and processes. Consequently, DT also has implications on Project Portfolio Risk Assessment (PPRA). Thus, this study is focused on identifying these implications based on a structured search and content analysis of the literature in the field, which led to the identification of eight implications for risk assessment. Then, through qualitative analysis and according to the nature of each implication identified, a set of five challenges and three opportunities were established for PPRA considering DT context. This research shows that DT not only demands new considerations for PPRA but also offers opportunities to face them, leading to improve the PPRA impact on project portfolio management decision-making process. The present study contributes to the current PPRA research by outlining a view of how PPRA can be integrated into organizational DT. The challenges and opportunities identified could be used by practitioners and scholars to research, design, and implement PPRA in DT context.

Project Portfolio Risk Management (PPRM) has been identified as a relevant area regarding project portfolio success. This paper reports on a structured literature review of PPRM. A structured search and selection process was carried out and conventional content analysis was conducted in the literature analysis of 62 papers published in international journals. PPRM has its theoretical and practical bases in the modern theory of portfolios, decision theory and risk management (RM). The content analysis reveals four main recurrent topics in PPRM: (1) The influence of RM on project portfolio success, based on project portfolio impact level, moderators or contingency factors between RM and project portfolio success, and PPRM dimensions; (2) risk and project interdependencies, highlighting resources, technology, outcome, value, and accomplishment project interdependencies; (3) project portfolio risk (PPR) identification, where four main risk source categories are identified; and (4) PPR assessment, composed of risk measures and the main methods used for risk assessment. Therefore, this study provides an overview of PPRM as a research field, while it also promotes four future research directions: (1) PPRM as part of organizational RM; (2) RM,success dimensions and strategic impact; (3) mechanisms for PPR assessment, and (4) PPRM as a complex and dynamic system.

En el presente artículo propone un modelo para la evaluación de madurez en la gestión de proyectos para las pymes del sector de artes gráficas. Los resultados obtenidos, mediante el análisis de componentes principales y el análisis de conglomerados, dan cuenta de la posibilidad, y necesidad, de crear modelos de madurez que ayuden al crecimiento empresarial de las organizaciones pequeñas. La integración de los enfoques pertenecientes a modelos como los OPM3, P3M3, y el CP3M permitió diseñar una estructura integral y no restringida a modelos propietarios, en la cual es posible identificar el estado de madurez de grandes, medianas y pequeñas empresas a través de un instrumento conformado por 40 indicadores enmarcados en 17 factores.