Marin Bozic

In Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO), which use multiple component pricing schemas, farmers are paid for delivered quantity of butterfat, protein, and other solids, plus a producer price differential (PPD). The PPD captures the difference between the total handler obligations to the pool and the total component value of milk. In 2020, record negative PPD caused widespread frustration among dairy farmers. The primary objective of this research was to provide a comprehensive analysis of factors that affect PPD and to quantify their relative importance. We examined FMMO data from the past 10 yr including prices, utilizations, and tests. By decomposing the PPD, we were able to isolate the drivers of negative values. We found that long-term trends in usage, most importantly declining beverage milk and rising component tests, including both butterfat and protein, have substantially reduced PPD over the past decade. Class I milk pricing reform of 2018 exacerbated negative PPD in 2020, but we found that the PPD would have been negative even without that reform. The greatest contributor to recent negative PPD was the spread between cheese and milk powder prices, caused by shifts in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and USDA intervention cheese purchases. A range of policy modifications proposed to address negative PPD was evaluated.

This study provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between grocery retail concentration and retail dairy product prices in the United States. The analysis was performed based on a unique data set on store-level retail prices provided by the Information Resources Inc. Further, alternative measures of retail concentration were considered, which included revenue and store selling space-based Herfindahl-Hirschman Index that were computed based on a Nielsen TDLinx data set on store characteristics. Results from a reduced-form empirical framework estimated via panel data techniques indicated that grocery retail concentration had a positive statistically significant effect on retail dairy product prices in the analyzed locations during the analyzed period of time. Specifically, a 10% increase in concentration was found to lead to a 0.46% rise in retail dairy product prices. This central result was robust to the way in which retail concentration was measured and was consistent with broader empirical evidence in the literature on retail market power.